Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14228
Battleground Minnesota -- Obama and McCain In Fierce Fight: In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 08/15/08, 12 weeks to Election Day, John McCain and Barack Obama finish effectively even, according to this exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. Today, it's Obama 47%, McCain 45%, within the survey's 3.8 percentage point margin of sampling error. Obama leads by 8 points in NE Minnesota and by 5 in Western Minnesota. In the Twin Cities area and in southern Minnesota, the two tie. Half in Minnesota say the economy is the most important issue, and on that issue, Obama leads 50% to 44%. 83% of Conservatives back McCain. 82% of Liberals back Obama. Moderates break 5:3 for Obama. Obama is up 15 points among the less affluent. McCain is up 5 points among the more affluent. McCain leads 2:1 among Pro-Life voters. Obama leads 2:1 among Pro-Choice voters. Among men, McCain leads by 3; among women, Obama leads by 9 -- a 12 point gender gap. Among those voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 4. Among those voters older than McCain, McCain leads by 4. Among voters who are in-between the two candidates' ages, Obama leads by 3. 8% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; 8% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama, a wash. Independents split.
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Minnesota adults 08/13/08 through 08/14/08. Of them, 818 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 682 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Minnesota has 10 Electoral College votes. John Kerry carried Minnesota by 3 points in 2004; Al Gore carried the state by 2 points in 2000. As evidence of how much Republicans would like to flip Minnesota to a Red State, Minnesota's governor, Republican Tim Pawlenty, is frequently named as a possible running mate for John McCain.
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?
682 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next PresidentIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigrat< $50K> $50KTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheas
McCain (R)45%48%41%43%46%45%45%44%45%44%46%45%45%******89%8%44%83%37%12%43%46%54%37%35%65%31%44%47%44%**35%18%94%****79%37%49%45%45%43%42%
Obama (D)47%45%50%51%44%49%46%47%48%48%42%48%46%******8%86%42%11%55%82%49%45%38%55%57%28%61%39%50%50%**54%73%6%****11%52%44%46%47%48%50%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%23%33%25%19%56%44%50%12%38%93%2%1%4%28%34%24%27%44%15%49%51%49%27%23%42%52%31%65%47%4%13%11%6%3%4%8%32%68%58%14%14%14%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.