Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13902
Mud Sticks in Oregon's 5th District GOP Primary, But When Were Ballots Mailed? With one day remaining to drop-off ballots in Oregon's 05/20/08 primary, the Republican race in Oregon's 5th Congressional District has taken a turn. Today, 05/19/08, former state GOP chair Kevin Mannix has pulled nominally ahead of 2006 GOP nominee Mike Erickson, 46% to 42%. Mannix's slight advantage is within the survey's 4.7 percentage point margin of sampling error, and may or may not be statistically significant. One week ago, on 05/12/08, Mannix released allegations about Erickson's past that appear to have shifted the dynamics of the race. Since SurveyUSA's previous poll on this contest, released eleven days ago on 05/08/08, Mannix has gained 5 points; Erickson has lost 7. Then, Erickson led by 8 points; today, he trails by 4. Among men, Erickson had led by 9, now trails by 5, a 14-point swing to Mannix. Among women, Erickson had led by 5, now trails by 3. Among voters 50+, Erickson had led by 16, now trails by 7, a 23-point swing to Mannix. Among pro-life voters, Erickson had led by 4, now trails by 16, a 20-point swing to Mannix.
Oregon's All-Mail Primary Complicates The Calculus: Voting in Oregon is conducted entirely by mail; there is no in-person voting. Ballots, whether mailed or dropped off, must reach election officials by 8:00 pm on election day, 05/20/08. 62% of voters in this contest say they've already returned their ballots; Erickson has a nominal 2-point advantage among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. Among the 38% who have not yet returned ballots but who are judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote, Mannix leads by 14 points. The more last-minute ballots that are returned in the District, the better Mannix may do.
Filtering: 1,600 adults from Oregon's 5th Congressional District were interviewed 05/16/08 through 05/18/08. Of them, 1,529 were registered to vote. Of them, 450 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already mailed their ballot or to be likely to return a ballot in the 05/20/08 closed Republican Primary. Incumbent Democrat Darlene Hooley is retiring. The U.S. House seat is open.
If the Republican Primary for U.S. House of Representatives were today, would you vote for... (names rotated) Mike Erickson? Kevin Mannix? Or some other Republican?
450 Likely And Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyAttend Religious ServiceAbortionAlready Voted?
Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicConservaModerateLiberalRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiActual VLikely V
Other / Undecided12%11%12%3%12%14%16%9%15%11%15%9%17%**13%12%9%9%16%11%14%
Composition of Likely And Actual Voters100%58%42%17%33%26%24%49%51%91%6%63%28%4%62%17%21%65%34%62%38%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.