| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13902 |
| Mud Sticks in Oregon's 5th District GOP Primary, But When Were Ballots Mailed? With one day remaining to drop-off ballots in Oregon's 05/20/08 primary, the Republican race in Oregon's 5th Congressional District has taken a turn. Today, 05/19/08, former state GOP chair Kevin Mannix has pulled nominally ahead of 2006 GOP nominee Mike Erickson, 46% to 42%. Mannix's slight advantage is within the survey's 4.7 percentage point margin of sampling error, and may or may not be statistically significant. One week ago, on 05/12/08, Mannix released allegations about Erickson's past that appear to have shifted the dynamics of the race. Since SurveyUSA's previous poll on this contest, released eleven days ago on 05/08/08, Mannix has gained 5 points; Erickson has lost 7. Then, Erickson led by 8 points; today, he trails by 4. Among men, Erickson had led by 9, now trails by 5, a 14-point swing to Mannix. Among women, Erickson had led by 5, now trails by 3. Among voters 50+, Erickson had led by 16, now trails by 7, a 23-point swing to Mannix. Among pro-life voters, Erickson had led by 4, now trails by 16, a 20-point swing to Mannix. |
| Oregon's All-Mail Primary Complicates The Calculus: Voting in Oregon is conducted entirely by mail; there is no in-person voting. Ballots, whether mailed or dropped off, must reach election officials by 8:00 pm on election day, 05/20/08. 62% of voters in this contest say they've already returned their ballots; Erickson has a nominal 2-point advantage among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. Among the 38% who have not yet returned ballots but who are judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote, Mannix leads by 14 points. The more last-minute ballots that are returned in the District, the better Mannix may do. |
| Filtering: 1,600 adults from Oregon's 5th Congressional District were interviewed 05/16/08 through 05/18/08. Of them, 1,529 were registered to vote. Of them, 450 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already mailed their ballot or to be likely to return a ballot in the 05/20/08 closed Republican Primary. Incumbent Democrat Darlene Hooley is retiring. The U.S. House seat is open. |
 | If the Republican Primary for U.S. House of Representatives were today, would you vote for... (names rotated) Mike Erickson? Kevin Mannix? Or some other Republican? |
| 450 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Ideology | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Already Voted? | ||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Actual V | Likely V | |
| Erickson | 42% | 42% | 42% | 44% | 45% | 37% | 42% | 45% | 39% | 41% | 63% | 38% | 50% | ** | 38% | 48% | 48% | 38% | 50% | 46% | 36% |
| Mannix | 46% | 47% | 45% | 53% | 43% | 50% | 42% | 46% | 46% | 48% | 21% | 53% | 33% | ** | 49% | 40% | 42% | 54% | 34% | 44% | 50% |
| Other / Undecided | 12% | 11% | 12% | 3% | 12% | 14% | 16% | 9% | 15% | 11% | 15% | 9% | 17% | ** | 13% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 16% | 11% | 14% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 58% | 42% | 17% | 33% | 26% | 24% | 49% | 51% | 91% | 6% | 63% | 28% | 4% | 62% | 17% | 21% | 65% | 34% | 62% | 38% |