Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #23328
 
Status Quo In San Diego: Measure C Trails Among Early Voters And Late Voters, As Does Measure D:

San Diego's high-profile Measure C remains unlikely to reach the two-thirds super majority needed to become law, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-election tracking poll conducted for KGTV-TV and the Union Tribune. Measure D could possibly reach a simple majority, but odds are, at this hour, that it too will be defeated.

Among voters who have already returned a ballot, C trails by 12 points, 54% against, 42% for. Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to do so before polls close on 11/08/16, C trails 43% to 39%. A super majority of 67% needed to pass appears out of reach.

Among voters who have already returned a ballot, Measure D trails 48% to 40. Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to do so before polls close on 11/08/16, D trails 35% to 30%. A simple majority is possible, but not likely.

Context and Methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 city of San Diego adults 10/31/16 through 111/02/16. Of the adults, 672 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of the registered, 604 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote before the 11/08/16 deadline. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (63% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (37% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
 
One proposal on the November ballot, sponsored by the San Diego Chargers, now known as Measure C, calls for the creation of a downtown stadium and convention center facility, paid for by an increase in the hotel tax paid by visitors to the city. The tax on hotel stays would increase from 12.5 percent to 16.5 percent. Are you certain to vote for this proposal? Certain to vote against this proposal? Or are you not certain?
604 Likely And Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMeasure CMeasure DAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / ForAgainstForAgainstYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Certain To Vote For40%49%31%44%40%40%36%42%38%37%38%44%47%100%0%68%25%42%39%48%42%37%48%28%46%35%45%38%40%48%52%39%36%31%55%36%41%39%42%41%47%36%
Certain To Vote Against48%44%51%41%47%50%55%45%52%52%42%47%34%0%100%29%74%54%43%46%43%58%40%54%46%52%44%50%49%46%41%48%50%59%25%50%48%47%46%49%39%53%
Not Certain12%7%17%15%13%11%9%14%10%10%19%9%19%0%0%4%1%4%18%6%15%6%12%18%8%14%11%12%11%7%7%13%14%9%20%14%11%14%12%11%13%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely And Actual Voters100%49%51%27%32%22%19%59%41%55%8%21%16%40%48%34%41%41%59%11%13%10%14%12%20%19%24%36%39%12%18%30%20%16%8%31%61%20%34%46%37%63%
 
The Chargers have released a new study that says the joint-use stadium-convention-center will bring in an additional $2.1 billion into the San Diego economy during construction and $400 million annually thereafter. Based on what you know so far, would a new joint-use stadium-convention center bring additional money to the city? Would a new stadium-convention center cost the city money? Would a new stadium-convention center be a break-even proposition? Or, do you not know enough to say?
604 Likely And Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMeasure CMeasure DAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / ForAgainstForAgainstYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Bring Additional Money To The City34%39%28%42%29%35%28%35%32%31%39%37%34%71%4%55%21%36%32%50%28%38%35%26%35%29%38%33%32%38%36%34%35%25%42%34%33%32%38%31%40%30%
Cost The City Money43%43%43%40%45%47%42%43%44%45%52%41%37%10%77%30%63%47%41%34%44%44%45%55%39%47%40%48%43%47%40%45%41%48%43%40%46%43%40%47%38%47%
Break-even Proposition7%6%7%7%9%5%4%8%5%8%0%6%8%8%4%4%7%6%7%3%12%6%4%5%6%9%8%5%8%4%7%6%4%13%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%
Do Not Know Enough To Say16%11%21%11%17%13%26%14%19%16%8%16%21%11%14%11%10%12%19%13%16%12%16%14%20%15%15%14%18%11%17%14%21%14%8%19%15%18%15%15%15%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely And Actual Voters100%49%51%27%32%22%19%59%41%55%8%21%16%40%48%34%41%41%59%11%13%10%14%12%20%19%24%36%39%12%18%30%20%16%8%31%61%20%34%46%37%63%
 
If the hotel tax in the city of San Diego increases from 12.5 percent, which it is today, to the new 16.5 percent, would that be a major deterrent to visitors to the city? A minor deterrent? Or, would it not make a difference to those who plan to visit San Diego?
604 Likely And Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMeasure CMeasure DAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / ForAgainstForAgainstYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Major Deterrent30%29%31%34%26%31%30%30%30%29%43%36%21%12%47%24%42%35%27%43%37%23%27%28%28%27%40%26%28%44%34%30%25%24%33%38%25%33%28%30%25%33%
Minor Deterrent35%35%35%36%38%29%37%37%33%33%31%41%39%30%39%33%32%32%38%13%32%44%48%36%37%34%23%43%36%18%36%37%42%37%21%34%38%37%36%36%42%31%
No Difference32%34%30%29%32%37%30%31%34%37%26%21%33%56%13%42%24%32%32%41%31%32%23%31%32%36%35%28%34%35%28%30%31%37%39%24%35%24%35%32%29%34%
Not Sure3%1%4%1%3%3%3%2%3%2%0%2%7%2%1%1%2%1%4%4%0%1%2%5%2%3%2%3%3%3%2%3%2%1%7%3%1%6%1%2%3%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely And Actual Voters100%49%51%27%32%22%19%59%41%55%8%21%16%40%48%34%41%41%59%11%13%10%14%12%20%19%24%36%39%12%18%30%20%16%8%31%61%20%34%46%37%63%
 
Another proposal on the ballot, now known as Measure D, would raise the hotel tax to 15.5 percent, with some of the money available for a downtown convention center annex. It could speed development of a stadium, but does not allow public money to be spent on it. It also allows the current Mission Valley stadium site to be used for parks and university-related uses. Are you certain to vote for this proposal? Certain to vote against this proposal? Or are you not certain?
604 Likely And Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMeasure CMeasure DAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / ForAgainstForAgainstYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Certain To Vote For34%38%30%44%27%35%30%35%33%27%45%44%38%57%20%100%0%40%30%36%23%27%27%40%41%39%29%31%40%27%38%29%35%43%23%33%36%36%39%31%42%29%
Certain To Vote Against41%42%39%32%46%40%43%40%42%47%32%35%30%25%63%0%100%48%35%42%43%52%47%25%41%39%43%41%40%50%39%41%37%43%45%42%39%45%35%43%34%44%
Not Certain26%20%31%24%27%25%27%25%26%26%23%21%32%18%17%0%0%12%35%22%33%21%26%35%18%22%28%28%20%23%22%30%27%14%32%25%25%19%26%27%24%27%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely And Actual Voters100%49%51%27%32%22%19%59%41%55%8%21%16%40%48%34%41%41%59%11%13%10%14%12%20%19%24%36%39%12%18%30%20%16%8%31%61%20%34%46%37%63%
 
Does the Charger's recent performance make you more likely to support a new stadium? Less likely to support a new stadium? Or does it make no difference?
604 Likely And Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMeasure CMeasure DAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / ForAgainstForAgainstYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
More Likely To Support14%20%8%23%8%13%12%15%13%11%12%17%21%30%2%26%8%15%13%21%15%3%5%11%20%19%17%7%19%22%17%11%15%9%27%11%14%16%15%12%20%10%
Less Likely To Support30%24%36%29%35%23%30%33%27%27%30%39%29%15%42%26%32%33%28%27%34%28%36%29%30%26%31%31%28%29%29%35%30%26%24%34%29%28%30%33%25%33%
Makes No Difference55%56%54%47%56%63%56%52%59%61%59%43%47%54%56%47%59%51%58%52%51%69%59%58%48%55%52%61%51%48%53%54%55%63%45%55%56%55%55%54%54%56%
Not Sure1%0%2%1%1%1%2%1%1%0%0%1%3%1%0%1%0%1%1%0%0%0%0%2%2%0%0%1%1%0%1%0%0%1%4%1%1%1%1%1%0%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely And Actual Voters100%49%51%27%32%22%19%59%41%55%8%21%16%40%48%34%41%41%59%11%13%10%14%12%20%19%24%36%39%12%18%30%20%16%8%31%61%20%34%46%37%63%
 
Does the mayor's support of a new stadium make you more likely to support a new stadium? Less likely to support a new stadium? Or does it make no difference?
604 Likely And Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMeasure CMeasure DAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / ForAgainstForAgainstYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
More Likely To Support17%21%13%19%17%17%15%18%16%15%14%18%23%38%2%30%6%19%16%25%27%15%13%9%20%13%26%12%16%22%26%16%15%9%16%17%18%17%17%19%26%11%
Less Likely To Support21%23%19%22%19%18%25%21%21%18%32%27%19%11%31%14%30%22%20%24%28%10%22%21%20%21%26%18%21%37%16%18%17%21%29%18%21%25%23%18%15%25%
Makes No Difference60%54%65%56%61%64%57%59%61%66%51%52%51%50%67%55%64%59%60%50%44%75%65%67%58%59%47%68%58%40%55%64%63%69%52%63%59%55%60%61%57%61%
Not Sure3%2%3%4%2%1%3%3%2%1%3%2%7%1%1%1%1%1%4%1%1%0%0%3%1%8%1%1%5%1%2%1%6%1%3%2%2%3%0%2%2%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely And Actual Voters100%49%51%27%32%22%19%59%41%55%8%21%16%40%48%34%41%41%59%11%13%10%14%12%20%19%24%36%39%12%18%30%20%16%8%31%61%20%34%46%37%63%