Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16387
 
Moran Still Atop Tiahrt in Kansas GOP US Senate Primary: In a Republican Primary for US Senate in Kansas today, 03/29/10, Jerry Moran defeats Todd Tiahrt, according to SurveyUSA's 7th pre-primary tracking poll, conducted for KWCH-TV Wichita and KCTV-TV Kansas City. The primary is in 4 months.

Today it's Moran 42%, Tiahrt 32%. Robert Londerholm, a third Republican in the race, gets 5%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 2 months ago, which did not include Londerholm, Moran is up 2 points; Tiahrt is down 1. In 7 tracking polls, Moran has never trailed. Click on the "Triangle T" to reveal SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graphs, a SurveyUSA exclusive, which permit a time-series analysis of each demographic sub-population.

Tiahrt, who represents Kansas' 4th US Congressional District, in Southeastern Kansas, leads by 2:1 in that part of the state. Moran, who represents Kansas' 1st Congressional District, which takes up most of the Western two-thirds of the state, leads by 3:1 in Western KS. In Northeastern KS, home to half the state's population, Moran today leads by 19. In 5 previous polls, Moran has led in this neutral ground by margins ranging between 8 and 23 points with between 1/3 to 1/2 of voters undecided; today, the number undecided in Northeast KS falls to 27%.

Kansas political parties decide before each primary whether the primary will be open to voters who are not affiliated with any political party; SurveyUSA includes unaffiliated voters here, where they make up 14% of the electorate. Moran today leads by 12 points among Republicans, up from 7 points 2 months ago; among unaffiliated voters, Tiahrt today holds a lead.

Incumbent Republican US Senator Sam Brownback is running for Kansas Governor, and is not seeking reelection to his Senate seat.

 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,500 Kansas adults 03/26/10 through 03/28/10. Of them, 1,330 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 519 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the August 2010 Republican Primary.
 
If the Republican Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Jerry Moran? Todd Tiahrt? Or Robert Londerholm?
519 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RacePartyIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicUnaffiliConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KNortheasSoutheasWestern
Moran42%48%34%52%36%43%43%40%43%41%******44%24%42%45%42%44%39%42%41%42%42%40%39%48%38%45%43%28%66%
Tiahrt32%30%34%34%40%26%27%38%26%33%******32%33%34%29%29%30%35%35%33%21%34%31%35%27%31%31%24%52%18%
Londerholm5%6%5%6%3%6%8%4%7%6%******5%8%5%6%5%5%5%5%5%7%5%7%5%6%5%5%7%4%5%
Undecided21%16%27%9%21%26%22%17%24%21%******18%35%19%21%23%20%21%18%21%30%19%22%21%20%26%18%27%17%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%56%44%13%36%28%22%49%51%90%1%4%5%86%14%60%30%6%57%43%66%18%16%65%32%60%39%35%65%49%34%18%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.