| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #24394 |
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In MN-03, Democrats Have Opportunity to Flip From Red to Blue House Seat Held by Republican Paulsen, Who Seeks 6th Term:
First-time DFL candidate Dean Phillips has a narrow advantage over incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen in the fight to be the Congressman from Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. With early voting underway, and 5 weeks till votes are counted, it's Phillips 49%, Paulsen 44%. Paulsen holds 86% of the Republican base; 10% of Republicans cross-over and vote for Phillips. Phillips holds 88% of the DFL base; just 5% of Democrats cross-over and vote for Paulsen. Independents break 5:4 for the Democrat. Moderates break 2:1 for the Democrat. Of those who voted for Paulsen in 2016, when he defeated DFL challenger Terri Bonoff, 17% defect in 2018 and vote for the Democrat. By contrast, of those who voted for the Democrat in 2016, just 3% defect in 2018. Voters overwhelmingly name healthcare as the most important issue in deciding how they will vote in 2018. Of those focused on healthcare, Phillips leads 4:1. Among voters who say the economy is the most important issue in 2018, Paulsen leads 4:1. * Paulsen's Net Job Approval in the District is Minus 3: 41% of likely voters approve of the job he is doing in Congress, 44% disapprove. * President Donald Trump's Net Job Approval in the District is Minus 18: 38% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing as President, 56% disapprove. About: SurveyUSA interviewed 850 adults from Minnesota's 3rd U.S. Congressional District 09/24/18 through 09/29/18. Of the adults, 823 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 607 who have already voted or who are likely to return a ballot before the 11/06/18 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were called on their cellphone by live interviewers or were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Altogether, 62% of likely voters were interviewed on a landline, 38% on a cell phone. MN-03, west of Minneapolis, is bisected by U.S. Highway 12 running East and West through Orono and Independence counties, and by Interstate 494 running North and South through Eden Prairie, Minnetonka and Plymouth counties. Phillips, first elected in 2008, won the seat with 57% of the vote in 2016 and with 62% of the vote in 2014. |
| 1 | If the election for US House of Representatives were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? Republican Erik Paulsen? Or DFL Candidate Dean Phillips? |
| 607 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Paulsen Approval | Trump Approval | Issue | 2016 Vote | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Taxes | Jobs And | Educatio | Healthca | Terroris | Immigrat | Gun Laws | Trump | Clinton | Paulsen | Bonoff | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Erik Paulsen (R) | 44% | 50% | 38% | 45% | 43% | 45% | 43% | 43% | 44% | 86% | 5% | 40% | 92% | 31% | 5% | 93% | 5% | 92% | 9% | 81% | 77% | 9% | 17% | 80% | 46% | 24% | 91% | 5% | 79% | 3% | 42% | 44% | 43% | 37% | 46% | 44% | 53% | 43% | ** | 40% | 46% |
| Dean Phillips (DFL) | 49% | 43% | 54% | 43% | 50% | 49% | 49% | 47% | 49% | 10% | 88% | 50% | 5% | 60% | 88% | 5% | 90% | 4% | 82% | 17% | 18% | 82% | 74% | 13% | 47% | 67% | 6% | 87% | 17% | 95% | 45% | 44% | 52% | 54% | 44% | 50% | 43% | 50% | ** | 49% | 48% |
| Undecided | 8% | 7% | 8% | 12% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 9% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 3% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 13% | 11% | 5% | 9% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 7% | ** | 11% | 6% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 10% | 21% | 41% | 28% | 31% | 69% | 32% | 31% | 34% | 30% | 45% | 22% | 41% | 44% | 38% | 56% | 10% | 19% | 8% | 29% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 40% | 46% | 50% | 31% | 7% | 27% | 66% | 14% | 30% | 56% | 7% | 90% | 3% | 38% | 62% |
| 2 | Do you approve or disapprove of the job Erik Paulsen is doing as US Representative? |
| 607 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Paulsen Approval | Trump Approval | Issue | 2016 Vote | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Taxes | Jobs And | Educatio | Healthca | Terroris | Immigrat | Gun Laws | Trump | Clinton | Paulsen | Bonoff | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Approve | 41% | 47% | 36% | 42% | 40% | 42% | 41% | 41% | 42% | 79% | 8% | 37% | 84% | 30% | 7% | 100% | 0% | 84% | 11% | 69% | 72% | 15% | 19% | 74% | 35% | 23% | 83% | 8% | 74% | 3% | 33% | 46% | 40% | 35% | 41% | 43% | 49% | 40% | ** | 39% | 43% |
| Disapprove | 44% | 43% | 45% | 38% | 42% | 46% | 46% | 41% | 46% | 12% | 73% | 48% | 9% | 53% | 77% | 0% | 100% | 8% | 73% | 19% | 21% | 73% | 64% | 15% | 50% | 54% | 10% | 75% | 18% | 89% | 42% | 37% | 49% | 39% | 42% | 47% | 37% | 46% | ** | 42% | 46% |
| Not Sure | 15% | 10% | 19% | 20% | 18% | 12% | 13% | 18% | 13% | 8% | 19% | 15% | 7% | 17% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 17% | 11% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 12% | 15% | 24% | 7% | 18% | 8% | 8% | 26% | 17% | 11% | 26% | 17% | 10% | 14% | 14% | ** | 20% | 11% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 10% | 21% | 41% | 28% | 31% | 69% | 32% | 31% | 34% | 30% | 45% | 22% | 41% | 44% | 38% | 56% | 10% | 19% | 8% | 29% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 40% | 46% | 50% | 31% | 7% | 27% | 66% | 14% | 30% | 56% | 7% | 90% | 3% | 38% | 62% |
| 3 | Do you approve? Or disapprove? Of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? |
| 607 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Paulsen Approval | Trump Approval | Issue | 2016 Vote | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Taxes | Jobs And | Educatio | Healthca | Terroris | Immigrat | Gun Laws | Trump | Clinton | Paulsen | Bonoff | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Approve | 38% | 45% | 32% | 28% | 38% | 43% | 37% | 35% | 40% | 81% | 4% | 30% | 85% | 24% | 5% | 78% | 7% | 100% | 0% | 67% | 70% | 6% | 14% | 76% | 46% | 21% | 89% | 3% | 68% | 2% | 45% | 42% | 36% | 37% | 41% | 37% | 45% | 37% | ** | 33% | 42% |
| Disapprove | 56% | 48% | 64% | 65% | 57% | 52% | 58% | 60% | 54% | 13% | 93% | 62% | 9% | 69% | 92% | 15% | 92% | 0% | 100% | 22% | 22% | 89% | 84% | 18% | 49% | 76% | 6% | 94% | 26% | 97% | 51% | 51% | 59% | 58% | 54% | 57% | 44% | 58% | ** | 59% | 54% |
| Not Sure | 6% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 8% | 5% | 7% | 3% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 11% | 5% | ** | 8% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 10% | 21% | 41% | 28% | 31% | 69% | 32% | 31% | 34% | 30% | 45% | 22% | 41% | 44% | 38% | 56% | 10% | 19% | 8% | 29% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 40% | 46% | 50% | 31% | 7% | 27% | 66% | 14% | 30% | 56% | 7% | 90% | 3% | 38% | 62% |
| 4 | Which one issue will be most important in determining how you vote in this election? Taxes? Jobs and the economy? Education? Healthcare? Terrorism and national security? Transportation? Immigration? Gun laws? Or some other issue? |
| 607 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Paulsen Approval | Trump Approval | Issue | 2016 Vote | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Taxes | Jobs And | Educatio | Healthca | Terroris | Immigrat | Gun Laws | Trump | Clinton | Paulsen | Bonoff | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Taxes | 10% | 12% | 7% | 9% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 12% | 9% | 14% | 5% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 4% | 16% | 4% | 17% | 4% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17% | 4% | 16% | 2% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 12% | 20% | 9% | ** | 10% | 10% |
| Jobs And The Economy | 19% | 23% | 14% | 8% | 22% | 26% | 10% | 18% | 19% | 33% | 7% | 16% | 32% | 17% | 5% | 33% | 9% | 34% | 7% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 34% | 7% | 30% | 7% | 7% | 19% | 20% | 13% | 19% | 21% | 25% | 19% | ** | 19% | 19% |
| Education | 8% | 7% | 9% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 11% | 9% | 2% | 9% | 12% | 3% | 13% | 1% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 12% | 3% | 13% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 11% | 3% | 8% | ** | 9% | 7% |
| Healthcare | 29% | 23% | 34% | 16% | 27% | 25% | 41% | 24% | 31% | 16% | 47% | 26% | 14% | 32% | 47% | 13% | 42% | 10% | 43% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 43% | 16% | 47% | 42% | 35% | 25% | 43% | 33% | 25% | 25% | 29% | ** | 26% | 31% |
| Terrorism And National Security | 7% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 3% | 7% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 13% | 2% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 2% | 10% | 2% | 13% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 10% | 5% | 11% | 7% | ** | 6% | 8% |
| Transportation | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Immigration | 10% | 11% | 9% | 21% | 9% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 9% | 12% | 9% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 10% | ** | 13% | 8% |
| Gun Laws | 6% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 3% | 9% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 2% | 7% | 0% | 6% | ** | 7% | 5% |
| Other | 9% | 9% | 9% | 16% | 5% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 6% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 7% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 3% | 9% | ** | 8% | 10% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 2% | ** | 4% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 10% | 21% | 41% | 28% | 31% | 69% | 32% | 31% | 34% | 30% | 45% | 22% | 41% | 44% | 38% | 56% | 10% | 19% | 8% | 29% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 40% | 46% | 50% | 31% | 7% | 27% | 66% | 14% | 30% | 56% | 7% | 90% | 3% | 38% | 62% |
| 5 | Have any of the campaign advertisements you've seen this year changed your view of a candidate? |
| 607 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Paulsen Approval | Trump Approval | Issue | 2016 Vote | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Taxes | Jobs And | Educatio | Healthca | Terroris | Immigrat | Gun Laws | Trump | Clinton | Paulsen | Bonoff | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Yes | 17% | 19% | 16% | 16% | 13% | 18% | 21% | 14% | 19% | 16% | 13% | 22% | 15% | 21% | 14% | 15% | 21% | 15% | 19% | 17% | 21% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 14% | 11% | 14% | 20% | 19% | 13% | 22% | 18% | 16% | 16% | 18% | 18% | 20% | 18% | ** | 15% | 19% |
| No | 78% | 77% | 79% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 73% | 80% | 77% | 82% | 81% | 72% | 82% | 73% | 84% | 81% | 77% | 83% | 76% | 82% | 74% | 71% | 76% | 83% | 85% | 89% | 83% | 73% | 78% | 82% | 73% | 78% | 79% | 78% | 76% | 78% | 71% | 78% | ** | 80% | 77% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 9% | 4% | ** | 5% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 10% | 21% | 41% | 28% | 31% | 69% | 32% | 31% | 34% | 30% | 45% | 22% | 41% | 44% | 38% | 56% | 10% | 19% | 8% | 29% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 40% | 46% | 50% | 31% | 7% | 27% | 66% | 14% | 30% | 56% | 7% | 90% | 3% | 38% | 62% |
| 6 | Did the ad that changed your view make you view the candidate more favorably? Or more negatively? |
| 106 Whose Views Were Changed | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Paulsen Approval | Trump Approval | Issue | 2016 Vote | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 8.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Taxes | Jobs And | Educatio | Healthca | Terroris | Immigrat | Gun Laws | Trump | Clinton | Paulsen | Bonoff | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| More Favorably | 20% | 25% | 15% | 37% | 27% | 22% | 10% | 31% | 16% | 29% | 21% | 12% | 22% | 13% | 33% | 25% | 17% | 16% | 22% | 14% | 21% | 14% | 24% | 32% | 13% | ** | 19% | 19% | 17% | 27% | 8% | 20% | 22% | 5% | 20% | 24% | 18% | 21% | ** | 26% | 17% |
| More Negatively | 75% | 69% | 81% | 63% | 70% | 73% | 82% | 68% | 77% | 71% | 67% | 83% | 78% | 79% | 61% | 73% | 79% | 79% | 72% | 76% | 79% | 86% | 65% | 68% | 82% | ** | 79% | 73% | 79% | 73% | 84% | 80% | 71% | 81% | 74% | 74% | 82% | 74% | ** | 72% | 76% |
| Not Sure | 5% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 2% | 6% | 0% | 13% | 6% | 0% | 8% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 11% | 0% | 6% | ** | 2% | 8% | 4% | 0% | 8% | 0% | 6% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 5% | ** | 1% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Whose Views Were Changed | 100% | 53% | 47% | 9% | 15% | 42% | 34% | 25% | 75% | 30% | 22% | 44% | 26% | 53% | 17% | 36% | 53% | 33% | 61% | 10% | 23% | 10% | 27% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 32% | 54% | 55% | 24% | 9% | 29% | 62% | 13% | 31% | 56% | 7% | 91% | 2% | 32% | 68% |
| 7 | Do you approve or disapprove of the changes to tax laws that Congress passed last year? |
| 607 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Paulsen Approval | Trump Approval | Issue | 2016 Vote | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Taxes | Jobs And | Educatio | Healthca | Terroris | Immigrat | Gun Laws | Trump | Clinton | Paulsen | Bonoff | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Approve | 40% | 48% | 31% | 33% | 41% | 43% | 36% | 38% | 40% | 75% | 9% | 37% | 81% | 27% | 7% | 77% | 10% | 81% | 10% | 68% | 70% | 8% | 16% | 64% | 46% | 34% | 76% | 9% | 69% | 5% | 35% | 38% | 41% | 31% | 37% | 43% | 50% | 38% | ** | 36% | 41% |
| Disapprove | 45% | 41% | 49% | 37% | 43% | 45% | 48% | 41% | 47% | 12% | 79% | 45% | 8% | 54% | 81% | 8% | 79% | 6% | 74% | 20% | 18% | 66% | 70% | 18% | 40% | 54% | 10% | 77% | 18% | 85% | 39% | 44% | 47% | 51% | 41% | 46% | 34% | 47% | ** | 43% | 46% |
| Not Sure | 15% | 11% | 20% | 30% | 16% | 11% | 16% | 21% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 19% | 11% | 19% | 12% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 16% | 12% | 13% | 27% | 13% | 18% | 15% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 9% | 26% | 18% | 13% | 18% | 23% | 10% | 16% | 15% | ** | 21% | 12% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 10% | 21% | 41% | 28% | 31% | 69% | 32% | 31% | 34% | 30% | 45% | 22% | 41% | 44% | 38% | 56% | 10% | 19% | 8% | 29% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 40% | 46% | 50% | 31% | 7% | 27% | 66% | 14% | 30% | 56% | 7% | 90% | 3% | 38% | 62% |
| 8 | Which one of the following would be the best way to fix the health insurance system? Create a "single-payer" health insurance program with more government involvement? Repeal the Affordable Care Act and replace it with private-market options? Or keep the Affordable Care Act and make changes to improve it? |
| 607 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Paulsen Approval | Trump Approval | Issue | 2016 Vote | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Taxes | Jobs And | Educatio | Healthca | Terroris | Immigrat | Gun Laws | Trump | Clinton | Paulsen | Bonoff | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Single-payer | 16% | 16% | 17% | 28% | 16% | 15% | 14% | 20% | 15% | 6% | 30% | 14% | 4% | 14% | 40% | 4% | 31% | 3% | 26% | 3% | 4% | 23% | 23% | 2% | 16% | 30% | 4% | 28% | 4% | 35% | 8% | 12% | 19% | 14% | 18% | 17% | 14% | 17% | ** | 19% | 15% |
| Repeal And Replace | 35% | 41% | 29% | 29% | 33% | 37% | 35% | 32% | 36% | 71% | 3% | 31% | 77% | 22% | 5% | 73% | 7% | 79% | 5% | 65% | 64% | 5% | 11% | 71% | 30% | 24% | 75% | 2% | 62% | 2% | 32% | 34% | 35% | 32% | 32% | 37% | 46% | 33% | ** | 27% | 40% |
| Keep And Improve | 44% | 38% | 51% | 40% | 43% | 45% | 46% | 42% | 45% | 20% | 64% | 50% | 15% | 59% | 54% | 21% | 59% | 14% | 65% | 30% | 27% | 66% | 63% | 19% | 48% | 42% | 17% | 66% | 30% | 60% | 54% | 46% | 43% | 51% | 43% | 43% | 37% | 45% | ** | 48% | 42% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 8% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 4% | ** | 6% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 10% | 21% | 41% | 28% | 31% | 69% | 32% | 31% | 34% | 30% | 45% | 22% | 41% | 44% | 38% | 56% | 10% | 19% | 8% | 29% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 40% | 46% | 50% | 31% | 7% | 27% | 66% | 14% | 30% | 56% | 7% | 90% | 3% | 38% | 62% |