| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #11054 |
| Show-Me State Final: McCaskill May Unseat Talent in Key Senate Take-Away: In interviews conducted through Monday night 11/6/06, SurveyUSA's final forecast in the Missouri U.S. Senate contest is: Democratic challenger McCaskill 50%, incumbent Republican Jim Talent 44%. These results are based on a 3-day rolling average of interviews conducted Saturday 11/4, Sunday 11/5 and Monday 11/6. Earlier, today Monday 11/6/06, SurveyUSA had released data based on interviews conducted Friday/Saturday/Sunday that showed McCaskill up by 9 points. Those results are available here. It is important to study the day-to-day movement in this poll. This remains, at the last hour, every bit the volatile race it has been throughout. Turnout will be key for both candidates. With the addition of the Monday 11/6 data, the 3-day rolling average also tightens the outcome of Amendment 2. Study the day-to-day movement on that ballot measure carefully, as well. |
 | If the election for United States Senator were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Jim Talent? Democrat Claire McCaskill? Libertarian Frank Gilmour? Or some other candidate? |
| 793 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | Race | Party | Ideology | Vote For Senator | Vote On Amendmen | Education | Income | Bush Job Approval | Day | Region | Geocoding | Generation * | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | White | Black | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Talent ( | McCaskil | Yes | No | No Colle | Some Col | College | Grad Sch | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Approve | Disappro | Not Sure | 11/4 | 11/5 | 11/6 | Ozark | Kansas C | Central | St. Loui | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Gen Y | Gen X | Jones | Boomers | Mature | |
| Talent (R) | 44% | 48% | 40% | 39% | 48% | 42% | 45% | 47% | 19% | 91% | 5% | 40% | 85% | 28% | 5% | 100% | 0% | 19% | 75% | 36% | 46% | 48% | 43% | 35% | 43% | 51% | 91% | 8% | 58% | 39% | 44% | 47% | 57% | 40% | 47% | 39% | 34% | 46% | 50% | 35% | 47% | 45% | 43% | 45% |
| McCaskill (D) | 50% | 46% | 54% | 53% | 46% | 52% | 51% | 48% | 74% | 9% | 91% | 43% | 13% | 66% | 89% | 0% | 100% | 75% | 20% | 58% | 49% | 47% | 50% | 57% | 52% | 45% | 6% | 85% | 25% | 53% | 50% | 48% | 39% | 52% | 43% | 57% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 57% | 46% | 50% | 51% | 51% |
| Gilmour (L) | 3% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 11% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Other/Undecided | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 0% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 24% | 32% | 25% | 19% | 89% | 8% | 35% | 40% | 20% | 35% | 38% | 15% | 44% | 50% | 49% | 42% | 18% | 39% | 23% | 19% | 29% | 41% | 24% | 39% | 54% | 6% | 30% | 29% | 41% | 21% | 23% | 12% | 44% | 23% | 54% | 23% | 12% | 25% | 25% | 19% | 19% |
 | Also on the ballot is Constitutional Amendment 2, the Stem Cell Initiative. In an election today, are you certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or, are you not certain how you will vote on Constitutional Amendment 2, the Stem Cell initiative? |
| 793 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | Race | Party | Ideology | Vote For Senator | Vote On Amendmen | Education | Income | Bush Job Approval | Day | Region | Geocoding | Generation * | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | White | Black | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Talent ( | McCaskil | Yes | No | No Colle | Some Col | College | Grad Sch | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Approve | Disappro | Not Sure | 11/4 | 11/5 | 11/6 | Ozark | Kansas C | Central | St. Loui | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Gen Y | Gen X | Jones | Boomers | Mature | |
| 'Certain' Yes | 49% | 48% | 49% | 49% | 45% | 50% | 51% | 47% | 54% | 23% | 69% | 53% | 20% | 63% | 79% | 21% | 73% | 100% | 0% | 49% | 44% | 51% | 53% | 49% | 51% | 50% | 23% | 69% | 31% | 52% | 49% | 46% | 35% | 54% | 55% | 51% | 56% | 49% | 39% | 51% | 44% | 48% | 51% | 51% |
| 'Certain' No | 42% | 45% | 39% | 40% | 43% | 42% | 40% | 44% | 24% | 68% | 21% | 37% | 72% | 27% | 15% | 72% | 17% | 0% | 100% | 38% | 47% | 39% | 39% | 41% | 38% | 43% | 69% | 21% | 52% | 38% | 41% | 45% | 51% | 37% | 39% | 40% | 32% | 43% | 50% | 38% | 44% | 43% | 41% | 40% |
| Not Certain | 10% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 22% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 14% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 17% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 9% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 9% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 24% | 32% | 25% | 19% | 89% | 8% | 35% | 40% | 20% | 35% | 38% | 15% | 44% | 50% | 49% | 42% | 18% | 39% | 23% | 19% | 29% | 41% | 24% | 39% | 54% | 6% | 30% | 29% | 41% | 21% | 23% | 12% | 44% | 23% | 54% | 23% | 12% | 25% | 25% | 19% | 19% |