Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13901 |
In Oregon, Men Make All the Difference for Obama, Who Is Set to Defeat Clinton, 24 Hours Till Votes Are Counted: In the Oregon Democratic Primary, which is conducted entirely by mail-in ballot, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by 9 points among the 77% of likely voters who have already returned a ballot, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. When all likely voters are included, including those who say they will return a ballot before the window of opportunity closes, Obama defeats Clinton 55% to 42%. All of Obama's advantage comes from men. Among women, Clinton and Obama tie. Among men, Obama leads by 28 points. Among voters age 65+, Clinton leads by 12. Among voters younger than 65, Obama leads. In 4 identical SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted over the past 6 weeks, Obama has never polled below 50%. Clinton has never polled above 44%. Obama has led by 10 points, 6 points, 11 points, and today by 13 points. |
Filtering: 1,700 state of Oregon adults were interviewed 05/16/08 through 05/18/08. Of them, 1,539 were registered to vote. Of them, 627 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already mailed their ballot or to be likely to return a ballot in the 05/20/08 closed Democratic Primary, which will proportionally award 52 delegates to the Democratic National Convention. |
If you were filling out your ballot today for the Democratic Primary for President, would you vote for ...(names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? Or some other Democrat? |
627 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Already Voted? | Ideology | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Change Your Mind | Top Issue For Next President | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Hispanic | Asian | Actual V | Likely V | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Could Ch | Mind Mad | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Social S | Educatio | Immigrat | Portland | Rest of | |
Clinton | 42% | 34% | 49% | 28% | 39% | 43% | 54% | 35% | 47% | 34% | 54% | 43% | 43% | ** | 32% | 44% | 34% | 55% | 43% | 36% | 47% | 50% | 36% | 51% | 39% | 20% | 38% | 49% | 30% | 44% | 31% | ** | ** | 30% | 63% | 42% | 42% |
Obama | 55% | 62% | 49% | 72% | 58% | 54% | 42% | 63% | 49% | 64% | 40% | 54% | 54% | ** | 62% | 53% | 62% | 40% | 54% | 63% | 47% | 48% | 62% | 43% | 59% | 62% | 61% | 49% | 63% | 54% | 67% | ** | ** | 70% | 33% | 55% | 56% |
Other | 2% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | ** | 6% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 0% | 1% | ** | ** | 0% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
Undecided | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 1% | ** | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 11% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | ** | ** | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 16% | 27% | 32% | 24% | 43% | 57% | 34% | 17% | 49% | 89% | 4% | 6% | 77% | 23% | 10% | 37% | 40% | 27% | 23% | 50% | 21% | 76% | 21% | 76% | 32% | 10% | 18% | 22% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 69% | 31% |