Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12913
Democrats Take Kentucky Governor's Seat from Republican Ernie Fletcher: 12 hours till polls open in Kentucky, the Democratic ticket of Steve Beshear and Dan Mongiardo is poised to defeat incumbent Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher and his GOP running mate Robbie Rudolph, according to this 8th and final SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. At the wire, it's Beshear 59%, Fletcher 39%. Six months of SurveyUSA polling was stable. Fletcher never polled above 40%. Beshear led throughout, never by less than 16 points. Fletcher never received more than 72% of the vote of his own party. In 8 polls, 1 in 4 Republicans crossed-over to vote for the Democrat. In 8 polls, Beshear led 3:1 among Kentucky moderates. In North Central KY, on the final weekend, Fletcher has cut Beshear's lead to single digits for the first time in 6 months. But in other regions, Beshear remains dominant, leading by 30 points in Louisville, by 29 points in Eastern KY, and by 20 points in Western KY. Because 5 competing pollsters worked the contest, and all have published results showing the Democrat with a commanding lead, the margin of victory for Beshear may be less than 20 points on Election Day, to the extent Democrats take victory for granted and fail to turnout.
Filtering: 1,000 Kentucky adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 11/02/07 through 11/04/07. Of them, 892 were registered to vote. Of them, 552 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote and were included in this survey.
If the election for Governor were today, would you vote for the .... Republican ticket of Ernie Fletcher and Robbie Rudolph? Or, the Democratic ticket of Steve Beshear and Dan Mongiardo?
552 Likely VotersAllGenderRaceVote On Casinos?Amend ConstitutiParty AffiliationIdeologyRegionAge<50 / 50+Generation
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemaleWhiteBlackHispanicOtherHold VotNo VoteAmend KeLeave CoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalWestern LouisvilNorth CeEastern 18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Gen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Fletcher / Rudolph (R)39%42%37%40%******32%76%18%59%72%14%43%71%24%9%39%34%46%35%41%42%38%35%42%37%47%39%38%38%37%
Beshear / Mongiardo (D)59%56%62%58%******66%23%81%39%27%84%53%28%75%91%59%64%53%64%58%57%58%65%58%61%52%59%60%59%62%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%93%5%1%2%81%14%46%50%39%54%6%35%36%13%22%27%33%19%19%29%31%20%49%51%10%22%26%23%19%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.