Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #11980
 
IN GOLD RUSH FOR 2008 CALIFORNIA DELEGATES, NEW YORKER CLINTON UP BY 17, NEW YORKER GIULIANI UP BY 19.
 
CA Democratic Primary: 10 months to the newly accelerated and suddenly critical California Democratic Primary, New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton sits 17 points atop Illinois Senator Barack Obama, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 817 Likely California Democratic Primary voters, conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco and KGTV-TV San Diego. Today it's: Clinton 43%, Obama 26%, former North Carolina Senator John Edwards 17%, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson 4%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 4 weeks ago, Clinton is effectively unchanged, Obama is down 5 points, Edwards is up 7 points. Clinton's lead comes entirely from women, where today she is 30 points ahead of Obama, up from last month when Clinton led Obama among women by 22 points. Among men, Obama and Clinton were tied last month, remain tied this month. Close behind, among men, is John Edwards, whose support jumped 10 points from March, from 13% then to 23% today. Much of Edwards' new support comes from white voters siphoned from Obama (down 5 points among CA white Democrats) and Clinton (down 3 points among CA white Democrats). Edwards is up 9, from 14% to 23%, among CA white Democrats. In the San Francisco Bay Area, Obama's support is down 13 points. Last month, Obama led Clinton by 2 in the Bay area, today Obama trails by 16 there.
 
CA Republican Primary: 10 months to the make-or-break California Republican Primary, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani continues to outflank Arizona Senator John McCain on multiple fronts, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 522 Likely California Republican Primary voters conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco and KGTV-TV San Diego. Today, it's Giuliani 43%, McCain 24%, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich 10%, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 7%. "Some other Republican" is now polling ever-so-slightly higher than Romney and Gingrich. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 4 weeks ago, there is strikingly little movement in the contest. Giuliani had led by 18, now by 19. Giuliani continues to lead McCain among Pro-Choice voters and among Pro-Life voters. Giuliani continues to lead among both those who support and those who oppose same-sex marriage. Giuliani continues to lead among those who are for stem-cell research and those against it. Giuliani continues to lead among those who own guns and those who don't. Giuliani continues to lead among those who think the USA needs a military draft and among those who think the USA does not. Giuliani continues to lead in union households and in non-union households. Only on the issue of Global Warming is there movement worthy of comment: Those who think Global Warming is "made-up" have moved away from McCain to Giuliani. Those who think Global Warming is "real" have moved to McCain. Among Conservatives, Gingrich's support has dropped from 20% last month to 12% today. Disaffected Gingrich conservatives are more likely to go to Giuliani, who among Conservatives is up 5 points, than to McCain, who among Conservatives is up 2 points. McCain, from the neighboring state of Arizona, does not get above 30% in any age group nor in any region of California.
 
Filtering: 2,400 state of California adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 3/30/07 through 4/1/07. Of them, 2,006 were registered to vote. Of them, 522 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 2/5/08 Republican Presidential Primary; 817 were identified as likely to vote in the 2/5/08 Democratic Presidential Primary. Results here are based on interviews with Likely Primary Voters. The CA Primary is in 309 days. The general election for President of the United States is in 582 days, on 11/4/08.
 
If the Republican Primary were today, would you vote for... Rudy Giuliani? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Newt Gingrich? Or some other Republican?
522 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+GenerationRaceIdeologyWho Did You VoteAbortionGlobal WarmingStem Cell ResearLabor UnionSupport Same SexGun OwnershipMilitary DraftWho Is Winning WBush in HistoryHave Up-To-Date Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Gen YGen XJonesBoomersMatureWhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtConservaModerateLiberalBushKerryPro-lifePro-choiRealMade-upForAgainstYesNoSupportOpposeYesNoNeedNo NeedUnited STerrorisOne Of AAn AveraOne Of TYesNoCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Giuliani43%42%45%50%44%38%40%46%39%55%43%44%37%40%43%**46%41%43%46%22%43%47%34%54%39%50%47%38%39%45%49%41%41%46%46%44%48%37%45%44%41%46%41%41%40%45%50%
McCain24%24%25%20%30%20%26%26%22%19%28%28%16%26%24%**24%24%21%28%30%23%30%23%26%35%10%29%18%27%23%28%23%23%25%24%25%23%26%20%25%29%21%28%20%29%24%21%
Romney7%7%7%4%4%11%9%4%10%3%4%4%14%9%7%**5%10%8%6%3%7%3%9%4%6%7%5%7%5%7%3%7%7%6%8%6%6%6%8%7%3%6%6%7%9%4%6%
Gingrich10%10%10%8%6%14%11%7%13%5%9%8%15%11%9%**11%12%12%5%15%10%8%15%4%4%16%6%15%11%9%6%11%13%6%8%9%11%8%16%9%5%10%10%10%9%11%8%
Other11%14%6%11%10%12%10%10%11%14%9%10%13%10%12%**8%6%9%12%26%11%10%10%9%10%13%10%15%11%11%9%12%10%12%12%10%8%19%5%11%20%12%10%13%8%11%14%
Undecided5%4%8%7%5%5%4%6%5%4%7%6%4%4%5%**5%7%7%3%4%6%3%8%3%6%4%3%7%7%5%4%6%5%6%3%6%4%5%6%6%3%6%5%9%5%5%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%63%37%20%35%28%17%54%46%10%21%31%20%17%73%2%16%10%58%32%7%86%8%48%48%52%40%56%34%25%74%25%71%44%55%28%67%60%22%25%56%18%55%44%24%36%23%17%
 
If the Democratic Primary were today, would you vote for... Hillary Rodham Clinton? Barack Obama? John Edwards? Bill Richardson? Or some other Democrat?
817 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+GenerationRaceIdeologyWho Did You VoteAbortionGlobal WarmingStem Cell ResearLabor UnionSupport Same SexGun OwnershipMilitary DraftWho Is Winning WBush in HistoryHave Up-To-Date Region
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Gen YGen XJonesBoomersMatureWhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtConservaModerateLiberalBushKerryPro-lifePro-choiRealMade-upForAgainstYesNoSupportOpposeYesNoNeedNo NeedUnited STerrorisOne Of AAn AveraOne Of TYesNoCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Clinton43%30%53%47%41%40%44%44%42%44%48%39%40%44%36%31%57%47%35%45%42%27%45%45%43%45%23%42%50%44%43%42%45%40%44%43%44%47%45%**41%44%43%45%37%45%49%42%
Obama26%31%23%28%29%29%16%28%23%34%22%34%28%16%26%59%18%24%23%23%31%23%28%23%28%27%26%27%16%29%25%29%23%27%27%22%28%25%27%**23%28%26%28%35%25%16%26%
Edwards17%23%13%16%16%18%19%16%19%13%19%15%19%19%23%3%13%14%20%17%18%17%17%15%18%17%30%18%19%16%18%19%16%20%16%19%17%11%18%**20%17%18%15%14%18%21%16%
Richardson4%6%3%4%3%3%6%3%5%3%4%4%2%6%3%1%6%4%12%5%1%8%3%4%4%4%7%3%6%5%3%3%4%4%3%7%3%4%3%**3%4%5%2%4%4%3%4%
Other4%6%3%2%4%5%8%3%6%3%2%4%5%8%6%4%2%4%5%6%3%11%3%8%4%4%5%4%6%4%4%3%6%3%4%4%4%6%4%**5%4%4%5%5%4%4%4%
Undecided5%4%6%3%7%4%7%5%5%3%6%4%5%7%6%2%5%7%5%5%5%15%4%5%4%4%9%4%3%3%6%4%7%5%5%5%5%7%3%**8%4%6%4%5%4%7%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%42%58%28%29%25%18%57%43%13%27%24%18%18%49%9%29%12%11%43%41%10%77%16%80%89%7%85%8%32%67%60%34%24%74%22%74%19%56%2%17%80%56%42%17%40%13%30%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.