Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26514
 
GOP Has Slim Advantage for NC Supreme Court Seat 3, Slimmest of Advantages for Seat 5, But High Undecideds Leave Any Outcome Possible:

North Carolina voters narrowly prefer two Republican candidates for Supreme Court Justice, according to SurveyUSA's latest polling for WRAL-TV in Raleigh, but large numbers of undecided voters in these down-ballot contests make any outcome possible.

In the election for Seat 3, Republican Richard Dietz takes 37% of the vote today, Democrat Lucy Inman 32%; 31% of likely voters are undecided, a sign that voters are not yet focused on this contest.

For Seat 5, Republican Trey Allen today is at 39%, Democrat Sam Ervin at 37%, with 24% undecided.

16% of likely voters say abortion will be the determining factor in their votes for Supreme Court; those voters overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic candidates. 36% say abortion will be a major factor in their votes; those voters vote for the Democrats by a 20-point margin. 22% say abortion will be somewhat of a factor; they prefer the Republicans by 24 points for Seat 3, and by 14 points for Seat 5. 23% say abortion will not be a factor; these voters choose the Republican by 54 points in each contest.

50% of likely voters say they trust North Carolina's Supreme Court to make fair decisions; 19% say they do not. 31% are not sure.

41% say North Carolina's judicial races should be changed to be non-partisan contests; 33% say they should continue to be conducted with political party affiliations. 26% are not sure.
 
About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,100 North Carolina adults 09/28/2022 through 10/02/2022. Of the adults, 918 are registered to vote in North Carolina. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 677 as being likely to cast a ballot in the November election for United States Senate. This research was conducted online among a representative cross section of North Carolina adults, selected at random by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Adult respondents were weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home-ownership.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of North Carolina?
1100 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely November Abortion Impact On Court Votes2020 VoteGun Owning HHParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainDeterminMajor FaSomewhatNot a FaTrumpBidenYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Yes83%85%82%76%83%86%92%79%89%86%86%75%63%90%93%76%89%91%82%89%90%85%87%87%90%85%87%100%100%100%100%100%100%94%97%87%83%83%85%76%83%93%78%84%92%89%73%84%84%82%83%84%85%80%
No14%12%15%20%14%12%7%17%10%11%13%18%34%8%5%21%10%8%15%9%9%13%12%12%9%13%12%------6%3%11%14%15%12%20%14%6%18%14%7%9%22%13%14%14%14%11%14%16%
Not Sure3%3%3%4%3%2%1%4%1%3%1%7%3%2%2%2%2%1%3%2%1%2%2%1%2%2%2%------1%0%2%3%3%2%4%3%1%4%2%1%2%5%3%1%4%3%5%1%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%48%52%30%25%26%20%54%46%63%20%10%7%33%32%25%32%32%29%15%21%35%14%6%36%35%20%20%53%16%36%22%23%37%37%41%54%33%65%39%31%31%41%37%22%65%35%17%44%39%35%17%30%18%
 
2North Carolina will elect a United States Senator in November. Not everyone makes the time to vote in every election. Would you say you are ... ?
918 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely November Abortion Impact On Court Votes2020 VoteGun Owning HHParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainDeterminMajor FaSomewhatNot a FaTrumpBidenYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Certain Not To Vote4%4%4%7%5%0%4%6%2%2%8%7%4%1%6%4%2%6%3%4%3%3%8%1%4%3%6%0%0%----1%6%5%4%5%4%5%4%3%3%6%3%4%5%7%6%1%3%9%4%3%
Unlikely To Vote6%7%4%12%4%3%2%8%3%4%9%9%1%5%4%8%5%3%8%5%5%7%2%4%5%7%2%0%0%----5%3%6%6%5%6%9%5%2%7%5%3%4%9%6%5%7%5%4%8%2%
Maybe 50% / 50%15%13%17%21%17%13%9%19%11%15%15%10%23%13%15%14%15%14%16%8%12%21%12%6%11%21%10%0%0%----12%13%13%16%20%13%19%16%10%15%16%13%12%22%15%14%17%15%13%15%17%
Likely To Vote20%19%21%25%23%17%17%24%17%21%20%14%21%20%19%27%19%19%25%13%21%24%19%20%18%24%20%100%0%16%31%35%19%21%19%20%21%24%19%18%20%23%22%18%22%20%22%24%19%21%26%20%18%15%
100% Certain To Vote53%55%52%33%49%67%67%41%67%56%44%57%51%59%54%47%58%56%46%69%56%44%57%67%61%44%60%0%100%84%69%65%81%60%57%55%53%46%57%47%52%61%51%53%58%60%39%47%55%54%51%50%53%61%
Not Sure2%1%2%2%2%1%1%2%1%1%4%3%0%1%2%1%2%2%1%0%2%2%1%2%1%2%1%0%0%----1%1%2%2%1%2%2%2%1%2%2%1%1%3%2%2%1%1%3%2%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%27%24%26%22%51%49%65%21%9%5%36%36%22%34%34%29%16%23%36%14%7%39%36%21%20%53%16%36%22%23%41%43%43%54%32%66%35%30%34%39%38%24%69%31%17%45%38%35%17%30%18%
 
3North Carolina will also hold two elections for state Supreme Court Justices. If the election for state Supreme Court Seat 3 were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for?
677 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely November Abortion Impact On Court Votes2020 VoteGun Owning HHParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainDeterminMajor FaSomewhatNot a FaTrumpBidenYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Richard Dietz (R)37%43%31%31%38%40%37%35%39%45%8%41%28%73%6%25%76%6%27%72%61%23%7%3%66%23%6%32%39%18%26%46%61%71%5%47%28%47%32%39%35%37%34%35%43%39%31%31%36%41%45%34%34%28%
Lucy Inman (D)32%32%32%37%30%34%28%33%32%25%61%36%20%4%69%24%2%71%25%4%11%34%71%83%8%34%76%24%36%54%46%22%7%2%64%26%39%24%36%30%33%34%32%37%27%30%39%41%35%26%26%38%37%32%
Undecided31%24%37%31%32%25%35%32%30%30%31%24%52%23%25%51%21%23%48%23%27%43%22%13%26%43%19%44%26%28%28%32%32%27%31%27%33%29%31%31%32%29%34%28%30%31%30%28%30%33%29%28%28%40%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%21%24%30%25%45%55%68%18%8%5%39%36%22%35%35%28%18%24%33%15%8%42%33%23%28%72%16%36%22%23%45%44%44%54%31%68%31%30%39%38%36%26%75%25%17%45%38%37%16%29%18%
 
4If the election for state Supreme Court Seat 5 were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for?
677 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely November Abortion Impact On Court Votes2020 VoteGun Owning HHParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainDeterminMajor FaSomewhatNot a FaTrumpBidenYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Trey Allen (R)39%43%34%33%42%39%39%38%39%46%7%42%39%77%4%26%83%4%27%77%64%24%7%4%69%24%6%32%41%18%30%42%67%77%4%48%30%51%33%42%37%37%38%37%43%42%30%32%38%42%45%37%36%31%
Sam Ervin (D)37%36%38%42%34%39%35%37%37%30%69%40%24%6%77%30%4%77%32%7%16%39%79%87%12%39%82%32%39%59%50%28%13%3%72%30%44%26%42%37%37%38%37%41%33%34%46%46%39%31%32%42%42%35%
Undecided24%20%28%25%24%22%26%25%24%24%24%18%38%17%19%44%13%18%41%16%21%37%14%10%19%37%12%36%19%23%20%30%21%20%24%22%25%24%24%22%26%25%25%23%25%24%25%22%23%26%23%20%22%34%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%21%24%30%25%45%55%68%18%8%5%39%36%22%35%35%28%18%24%33%15%8%42%33%23%28%72%16%36%22%23%45%44%44%54%31%68%31%30%39%38%36%26%75%25%17%45%38%37%16%29%18%
 
5How much impact will the issue of abortion have on your votes for state Supreme Court seats?
677 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely November Abortion Impact On Court Votes2020 VoteGun Owning HHParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainDeterminMajor FaSomewhatNot a FaTrumpBidenYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
The Determining Factor16%14%19%17%15%19%13%16%17%14%24%28%6%11%24%14%10%25%14%17%8%14%21%37%11%14%27%9%19%100%0%0%0%8%24%13%19%17%16%18%16%15%18%16%15%16%17%22%17%14%16%10%20%17%
A Major Factor36%37%35%42%39%32%31%41%32%35%40%33%39%27%45%38%26%46%37%39%24%32%56%54%30%32%55%41%34%0%100%0%0%25%48%39%34%35%36%30%35%41%34%36%37%34%41%43%34%34%35%45%34%31%
Somewhat Of a Factor22%22%22%25%24%22%18%25%20%22%24%15%23%25%17%25%25%16%24%20%25%29%13%1%23%29%9%28%20%0%0%100%0%28%16%24%19%31%18%20%25%22%21%22%24%22%22%16%26%21%19%20%22%29%
Not a Factor23%26%20%13%18%25%33%16%29%27%7%23%23%35%12%20%37%11%21%20%43%21%9%6%33%21%8%16%26%0%0%0%100%37%9%22%25%15%27%27%20%22%23%23%22%25%16%15%22%28%25%21%22%21%
Not Sure3%1%4%2%3%2%4%3%3%2%4%0%9%2%3%4%2%3%5%5%0%4%1%2%2%4%2%6%2%0%0%0%0%3%3%2%3%2%3%5%3%1%4%2%1%3%4%3%2%4%4%3%2%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%21%24%30%25%45%55%68%18%8%5%39%36%22%35%35%28%18%24%33%15%8%42%33%23%28%72%16%36%22%23%45%44%44%54%31%68%31%30%39%38%36%26%75%25%17%45%38%37%16%29%18%
 
6Do you trust North Carolina's Supreme Court to make fair decisions?
677 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely November Abortion Impact On Court Votes2020 VoteGun Owning HHParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainDeterminMajor FaSomewhatNot a FaTrumpBidenYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Yes50%52%48%55%50%47%49%52%48%50%49%54%49%60%48%38%60%47%43%57%50%52%44%45%53%52%44%46%52%35%51%50%62%54%47%49%51%56%47%52%48%50%49%54%47%49%52%48%52%49%48%52%48%56%
No19%18%20%26%19%17%15%22%16%17%22%21%29%15%19%24%18%20%20%19%17%17%23%26%18%17%24%17%20%33%18%16%12%18%20%20%18%21%18%18%19%19%21%15%21%19%18%21%18%20%19%17%19%22%
Not Sure31%30%32%19%31%36%35%25%36%33%29%25%22%25%33%39%22%34%37%24%33%31%33%29%29%31%32%37%29%31%31%34%26%28%33%31%30%23%34%30%33%31%30%31%32%31%30%32%30%32%33%31%33%23%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%21%24%30%25%45%55%68%18%8%5%39%36%22%35%35%28%18%24%33%15%8%42%33%23%28%72%16%36%22%23%45%44%44%54%31%68%31%30%39%38%36%26%75%25%17%45%38%37%16%29%18%
 
7Should North Carolina's judicial races continue to be conducted with political party affiliations? Or should they be changed to be non-partisan?
677 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely November Abortion Impact On Court Votes2020 VoteGun Owning HHParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainDeterminMajor FaSomewhatNot a FaTrumpBidenYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Continue To Use Affiliations33%36%30%33%36%39%24%34%32%32%30%49%27%46%31%15%46%32%19%55%33%25%30%33%42%25%31%24%37%37%36%29%29%40%27%33%33%44%28%30%36%33%31%33%35%34%29%36%33%32%32%44%29%33%
Change To Non-partisan41%42%39%43%41%35%44%42%39%42%38%31%48%28%43%58%29%41%55%25%38%51%47%39%33%51%44%39%41%36%39%49%42%34%48%43%40%37%43%31%39%49%34%43%47%41%41%41%47%33%45%35%37%43%
Not Sure26%22%31%25%23%26%32%24%29%26%32%20%25%26%26%27%25%27%25%20%29%24%23%28%25%24%25%37%22%27%25%22%29%26%25%24%27%18%29%38%25%18%35%23%18%25%30%23%20%35%23%21%35%24%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%21%24%30%25%45%55%68%18%8%5%39%36%22%35%35%28%18%24%33%15%8%42%33%23%28%72%16%36%22%23%45%44%44%54%31%68%31%30%39%38%36%26%75%25%17%45%38%37%16%29%18%