| Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #27531 |
| MAGA Republicans – But No One Else – Believe Trump is Eligible to Run for Third Term; 1 in 10 Americans Think 2028 Election Unlikely to Occur; SurveyUSA Introduces New Trackable 'Optimism Index,' at +3 as American Voters Split Over How They Feel About the United States Right Now: 1 in 5 registered voters nationwide say they believe Donald Trump is eligible to run for a third term as President, including a near-majority, 49%, of MAGA-identifying Republicans, according to SurveyUSA's latest national polling release. Overall, 21% say Trump is eligible to run again; 71% say he is not; 8% aren't sure. Among MAGA Republicans, 49% say he is eligible, 36% say he is not – a 13-point margin. Among non-MAGA Republicans, almost ⅔, 64%, say he is not eligible to run again, 28% say he is – a 36-point margin in opposition to the idea. Elsewhere, very conservative voters are evenly split, with 44% saying he is and 44% saying he is not eligible. In all other demographic subgroups, more say he cannot than say he can seek a third term. Will there even be an election for President in 2028? Just 9% find it unlikely (4% say it will not happen at all, 5% say it is very unlikely), while 80% say it is absolutely likely (63%) or somewhat likely (17%) that the United States will in fact hold a 61st election for President in 2028. 38% of voters today say they feel "optimistic and excited" about the country, narrowly edging out the 35% who say they feel "hopeless and defeated." Another 12% say they felt some other way, as shown in the word cloud below. 
Subtracting the "hopeless and defeated" responses from the "optimistic and excited" responses produces what we'll refer to here as a trackable "Optimism Index," which is at +3 overall today. Looking at that index broken down by demographic subgroups ...
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| About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 3,000 US adults age 18+ online 04/02/25 through 04/06/25, using non-probability sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 2,491 were identified by SurveyUSA as being registered to vote and were asked the substantive questions which follow. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census American Community Survey targets for gender, age, race, education, region and home ownership. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote? |
| 3000 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Progressive | MAGA | POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | US Census Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 1.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Yes | No | Trump | Harris | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Northeas | Midwest | South | West | |
| Yes | 83% | 85% | 81% | 76% | 82% | 87% | 89% | 79% | 88% | 86% | 82% | 78% | 75% | 85% | 83% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 89% | 88% | 80% | 89% | 90% | 88% | 80% | 89% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 97% | 75% | 84% | 92% | 74% | 88% | 90% | 89% | 73% | 84% | 85% | 79% | 86% | 87% | 80% | 83% |
| No | 16% | 14% | 17% | 22% | 17% | 12% | 10% | 20% | 11% | 13% | 17% | 20% | 24% | 14% | 16% | - | - | - | 10% | 12% | 19% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 19% | 10% | - | - | - | - | 5% | 3% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 25% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 25% | 16% | 14% | 20% | 14% | 13% | 18% | 17% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - | - | - | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | - | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 49% | 51% | 29% | 24% | 24% | 22% | 54% | 46% | 60% | 12% | 17% | 11% | 28% | 71% | 34% | 36% | 26% | 15% | 17% | 40% | 11% | 12% | 32% | 40% | 22% | 60% | 25% | 53% | 33% | 38% | 36% | 38% | 29% | 33% | 39% | 36% | 24% | 65% | 35% | 30% | 47% | 23% | 18% | 21% | 38% | 23% |
| 2 | Do you think Donald Trump is eligible to run for a third term as President? |
| 2491 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Progressive | MAGA | POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | US Census Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Yes | No | Trump | Harris | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Northeas | Midwest | South | West | |
| Yes | 21% | 23% | 19% | 23% | 25% | 18% | 18% | 24% | 18% | 22% | 11% | 27% | 13% | 30% | 17% | 42% | 6% | 14% | 44% | 27% | 16% | 6% | 10% | 35% | 16% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 49% | 28% | 41% | 2% | 26% | 20% | 17% | 22% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 17% | 24% | 17% | 25% | 15% | 17% | 24% | 23% |
| No | 71% | 69% | 72% | 69% | 68% | 74% | 73% | 68% | 73% | 69% | 82% | 66% | 77% | 62% | 74% | 45% | 91% | 78% | 44% | 60% | 76% | 91% | 90% | 53% | 76% | 90% | 91% | 86% | 36% | 64% | 46% | 96% | 65% | 70% | 77% | 68% | 70% | 75% | 70% | 72% | 71% | 74% | 65% | 76% | 74% | 67% | 70% |
| Not Sure | 8% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 13% | 3% | 8% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 12% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 14% | 8% | 13% | 2% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 10% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 10% | 5% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 24% | 25% | 24% | 51% | 49% | 63% | 11% | 16% | 10% | 28% | 71% | 34% | 36% | 26% | 16% | 18% | 38% | 11% | 13% | 35% | 38% | 24% | 60% | 25% | 53% | 33% | 44% | 43% | 34% | 29% | 37% | 35% | 38% | 26% | 69% | 31% | 30% | 48% | 22% | 19% | 22% | 37% | 23% |
| 3 | Do you think a 2028 Presidential election taking place is ... ? |
| 2491 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Progressive | MAGA | POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | US Census Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Yes | No | Trump | Harris | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Northeas | Midwest | South | West | |
| Absolutely Likely | 63% | 68% | 57% | 58% | 63% | 61% | 70% | 60% | 65% | 66% | 59% | 57% | 53% | 64% | 62% | 72% | 58% | 58% | 76% | 66% | 60% | 52% | 60% | 71% | 60% | 56% | 58% | 59% | 77% | 72% | 73% | 57% | 59% | 62% | 67% | 55% | 65% | 69% | 65% | 57% | 63% | 63% | 60% | 65% | 63% | 64% | 59% |
| Somewhat Likely | 17% | 15% | 18% | 22% | 19% | 15% | 11% | 21% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 19% | 21% | 22% | 14% | 14% | 18% | 18% | 9% | 19% | 18% | 17% | 18% | 14% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 11% | 17% | 14% | 19% | 16% | 17% | 17% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 20% | 17% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 18% | 18% | 16% |
| Very Unlikely | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 8% |
| Will Not Happen | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 6% |
| Not Sure | 11% | 8% | 14% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 9% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 8% | 12% | 7% | 13% | 13% | 7% | 7% | 12% | 15% | 12% | 7% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 8% | 15% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 15% | 10% | 10% | 13% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 11% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 24% | 25% | 24% | 51% | 49% | 63% | 11% | 16% | 10% | 28% | 71% | 34% | 36% | 26% | 16% | 18% | 38% | 11% | 13% | 35% | 38% | 24% | 60% | 25% | 53% | 33% | 44% | 43% | 34% | 29% | 37% | 35% | 38% | 26% | 69% | 31% | 30% | 48% | 22% | 19% | 22% | 37% | 23% |
| 4 | Which of these best describes how you feel about the country? (order of first two answer choices rotated) |
| 2491 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Progressive | MAGA | POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | US Census Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Yes | No | Trump | Harris | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Northeas | Midwest | South | West | |
| Hopeless And Defeated | 35% | 29% | 42% | 44% | 37% | 32% | 28% | 41% | 30% | 31% | 44% | 39% | 45% | 37% | 35% | 14% | 56% | 35% | 13% | 18% | 38% | 55% | 63% | 16% | 38% | 59% | 58% | 55% | 10% | 24% | 15% | 58% | 34% | 33% | 38% | 38% | 34% | 35% | 32% | 43% | 39% | 36% | 30% | 40% | 36% | 32% | 37% |
| Optimistic And Excited | 38% | 43% | 32% | 35% | 35% | 40% | 40% | 35% | 40% | 41% | 32% | 36% | 27% | 42% | 36% | 69% | 17% | 27% | 74% | 60% | 29% | 11% | 15% | 66% | 29% | 13% | 20% | 16% | 81% | 55% | 67% | 12% | 40% | 37% | 36% | 33% | 41% | 39% | 43% | 26% | 37% | 35% | 44% | 34% | 37% | 41% | 35% |
| Something Else | 12% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 13% | 13% | 16% | 10% | 14% | 14% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 5% | 14% | 17% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 18% | 15% | 7% | 13% | 17% | 13% | 16% | 2% | 8% | 7% | 16% | 8% | 14% | 15% | 11% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 15% |
| Not Sure | 15% | 16% | 13% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 16% | 14% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 11% | 16% | 11% | 12% | 21% | 7% | 14% | 20% | 15% | 6% | 11% | 20% | 10% | 9% | 12% | 7% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 18% | 15% | 11% | 18% | 14% | 12% | 13% | 17% | 13% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 13% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 24% | 25% | 24% | 51% | 49% | 63% | 11% | 16% | 10% | 28% | 71% | 34% | 36% | 26% | 16% | 18% | 38% | 11% | 13% | 35% | 38% | 24% | 60% | 25% | 53% | 33% | 44% | 43% | 34% | 29% | 37% | 35% | 38% | 26% | 69% | 31% | 30% | 48% | 22% | 19% | 22% | 37% | 23% |