| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26311 |
| November Look-Ahead Shows Likely GOP Governor Nominee Mark Ronchetti Within 4 Points of Incumbent Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham:
Looking ahead to the November 2022 election for New Mexico Governor, SurveyUSA's latest exclusive KOB-TV Eyewitness News Poll shows former TV meteorologist and 2020 US Senate nominee Mark Ronchetti – who SurveyUSA separately shows is well ahead in the battle to be the Republican gubernatorial nominee – within striking distance of Michelle Lujan Grisham. In a hypothetical election held today, six months before votes are counted, Lujan Grisham takes 47% of the vote, Ronchetti 43%. 11% of voters say they are undecided. When paired against other potential Republican opponents, Lujan Grisham defeats former mayor Ethel Maharg by 16 points, State Representative Rebecca Dow and financial advisor Greg Zanetti each by 12 points, and Sandoval County Commissioner Jay Block by 10 points, with between 11% and 19% of voters undecided in each case. Running against Ronchetti, Lujan Grisham leads by 12 points among women, trails by 4 among men – a 16-point gender gap. Hispanic voters back Lujan Grisham 55% to 33%; white voters narrowly favor Ronchetti, 49% to 42%. Lujan Grisham leads by 9 points among voters under age 50; the contest is tied among those age 50+. 81% of Republicans vote for Ronchetti; 81% of Democrats vote for Lujan Grisham; independents are equally divided. Ronchetti leads by 9 points among the 41% of voters who say the economy and inflation is the one issue that will be most important when they vote this fall and by 81 points among the 12% who are most focused on border security. Lujan Grisham leads by 84 points among the 13% most focused on climate change and by 36 points among the 1 in 12 voters who say education is the most important issue. 16% of likely November voters say crime is the most important issue, and the candidates split those voters, 46% for Lujan Grisham, 44% for Ronchetti. |
| About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,175 state of New Mexico adults 04/29/22 through 05/07/22. Of the adults, 1,673 were identified as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,389 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. 42% of likely voters were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer, using sample of registered voters provided by Aristotle of Washington, DC. 58% of likely voters were interviewed online using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of New Mexico? |
| 2175 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Issue | Likely November | 2020 Vote | Parent Of Child | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Economy | Educatio | Crime | Border S | Climate | Certain | Probable | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Bernalil | Dona Ana | Rest of | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Yes | 77% | 78% | 76% | 58% | 71% | 89% | 94% | 64% | 91% | 86% | 71% | 68% | 90% | 91% | 69% | 85% | 85% | 77% | 87% | 90% | 85% | 77% | 88% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 92% | 94% | 68% | 82% | 67% | 79% | 91% | 67% | 81% | 90% | 87% | 57% | 79% | 77% | 73% | 78% | 81% | 75% | 69% | 93% |
| No | 20% | 19% | 20% | 35% | 24% | 10% | 5% | 31% | 8% | 13% | 25% | 24% | 9% | 6% | 29% | 13% | 13% | 20% | 11% | 8% | 13% | 20% | 10% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7% | 5% | 27% | 16% | 27% | 18% | 8% | 27% | 17% | 9% | 12% | 37% | 18% | 19% | 23% | 18% | 16% | 21% | 27% | 4% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 48% | 52% | 30% | 21% | 27% | 22% | 51% | 49% | 42% | 42% | 16% | 29% | 33% | 26% | 14% | 18% | 34% | 12% | 6% | 32% | 34% | 18% | 41% | 8% | 16% | 12% | 13% | 68% | 15% | 32% | 36% | 29% | 71% | 43% | 31% | 25% | 45% | 33% | 22% | 67% | 33% | 31% | 32% | 36% | 38% | 8% | 55% | 68% | 32% |
| 2 | Thinking ahead to the fall now ... New Mexico will hold a general election for Governor, Attorney General, and other contests in November. Not everyone makes the time to vote in every election. Which best describes you? |
| 1673 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Issue | Likely November | 2020 Vote | Parent Of Child | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Economy | Educatio | Crime | Border S | Climate | Certain | Probable | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Bernalil | Dona Ana | Rest of | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Certain To Vote | 68% | 69% | 68% | 51% | 59% | 74% | 83% | 55% | 78% | 74% | 65% | 58% | 75% | 75% | 55% | 90% | 65% | 64% | 72% | 83% | 76% | 64% | 76% | 84% | 76% | 76% | 81% | 89% | 100% | 0% | 71% | 77% | 54% | 73% | 60% | 63% | 84% | 57% | 73% | 77% | 74% | 47% | 66% | 69% | 68% | 70% | 58% | 69% | 59% | 83% |
| Will Probably Vote | 15% | 15% | 15% | 21% | 18% | 13% | 9% | 20% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 17% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 6% | 21% | 17% | 14% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 13% | 16% | 24% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 16% | 12% | 20% | 13% | 15% | 20% | 9% | 19% | 13% | 11% | 13% | 21% | 18% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 23% | 15% | 19% | 8% |
| 50/50 Chance | 11% | 12% | 10% | 17% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 16% | 7% | 8% | 13% | 15% | 9% | 7% | 18% | 3% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 2% | 9% | 13% | 8% | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 9% | 6% | 20% | 8% | 16% | 12% | 4% | 15% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 19% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 10% | 14% | 5% |
| Probably Will Not Vote | 3% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 3% | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 1% |
| Not Sure | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 23% | 20% | 31% | 27% | 42% | 58% | 47% | 38% | 14% | 34% | 39% | 23% | 15% | 20% | 34% | 14% | 7% | 36% | 34% | 21% | 41% | 8% | 16% | 12% | 13% | 68% | 15% | 38% | 44% | 25% | 75% | 38% | 32% | 30% | 39% | 35% | 26% | 76% | 24% | 32% | 32% | 34% | 39% | 8% | 53% | 62% | 38% |
| 3 | If the November election for New Mexico Governor were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican, Jay Block and Democrat, Michelle Lujan Grisham, who would you vote for? |
| 1389 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Issue | Likely November | 2020 Vote | Parent Of Child | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Economy | Educatio | Crime | Border S | Climate | Certain | Probable | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Bernalil | Dona Ana | Rest of | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Jay Block (R) | 37% | 40% | 34% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 34% | 38% | 36% | 44% | 26% | 40% | 73% | 9% | 33% | 72% | 57% | 28% | 6% | 2% | 64% | 28% | 5% | 41% | 25% | 34% | 76% | 5% | 38% | 31% | 71% | 7% | 36% | 38% | 35% | 38% | 38% | 36% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 30% | 32% | 35% | 44% | 31% | 24% | 43% | 34% | 41% |
| Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) | 47% | 44% | 50% | 49% | 47% | 43% | 50% | 48% | 46% | 42% | 56% | 40% | 12% | 81% | 39% | 12% | 19% | 54% | 88% | 87% | 16% | 54% | 88% | 43% | 63% | 46% | 4% | 86% | 47% | 46% | 10% | 83% | 48% | 46% | 45% | 45% | 50% | 45% | 45% | 51% | 46% | 50% | 50% | 51% | 39% | 53% | 61% | 40% | 47% | 47% |
| Undecided | 16% | 17% | 16% | 13% | 15% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 18% | 14% | 18% | 20% | 15% | 10% | 28% | 16% | 24% | 18% | 6% | 11% | 20% | 18% | 8% | 16% | 12% | 20% | 20% | 9% | 15% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 15% | 16% | 19% | 17% | 12% | 20% | 17% | 12% | 15% | 20% | 19% | 14% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 16% | 19% | 12% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 20% | 18% | 33% | 29% | 38% | 62% | 50% | 37% | 13% | 36% | 42% | 20% | 18% | 21% | 33% | 14% | 8% | 39% | 33% | 22% | 41% | 8% | 16% | 12% | 13% | 82% | 18% | 40% | 47% | 22% | 78% | 34% | 32% | 33% | 36% | 36% | 27% | 80% | 20% | 33% | 32% | 34% | 38% | 8% | 54% | 58% | 42% |
| 4 | What if the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican, Rebecca Dow and Democrat, Michelle Lujan Grisham, who would you vote for? |
| 1389 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Issue | Likely November | 2020 Vote | Parent Of Child | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Economy | Educatio | Crime | Border S | Climate | Certain | Probable | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Bernalil | Dona Ana | Rest of | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Rebecca Dow (R) | 36% | 39% | 33% | 36% | 39% | 38% | 32% | 38% | 35% | 41% | 27% | 41% | 70% | 10% | 31% | 69% | 58% | 28% | 4% | 3% | 63% | 28% | 4% | 42% | 28% | 31% | 72% | 6% | 37% | 33% | 70% | 6% | 38% | 36% | 34% | 38% | 36% | 35% | 38% | 37% | 38% | 30% | 30% | 34% | 44% | 28% | 27% | 43% | 35% | 37% |
| Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) | 48% | 45% | 51% | 47% | 45% | 47% | 53% | 46% | 49% | 44% | 57% | 39% | 13% | 83% | 41% | 15% | 22% | 54% | 91% | 85% | 19% | 54% | 89% | 43% | 63% | 47% | 6% | 88% | 50% | 42% | 9% | 86% | 45% | 49% | 48% | 45% | 52% | 48% | 46% | 50% | 47% | 50% | 53% | 51% | 39% | 55% | 58% | 42% | 47% | 50% |
| Undecided | 16% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 16% | 20% | 17% | 7% | 28% | 16% | 20% | 18% | 5% | 12% | 18% | 18% | 8% | 15% | 8% | 22% | 22% | 6% | 14% | 25% | 20% | 8% | 17% | 16% | 18% | 17% | 13% | 18% | 16% | 13% | 15% | 20% | 17% | 15% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 16% | 18% | 13% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 20% | 18% | 33% | 29% | 38% | 62% | 50% | 37% | 13% | 36% | 42% | 20% | 18% | 21% | 33% | 14% | 8% | 39% | 33% | 22% | 41% | 8% | 16% | 12% | 13% | 82% | 18% | 40% | 47% | 22% | 78% | 34% | 32% | 33% | 36% | 36% | 27% | 80% | 20% | 33% | 32% | 34% | 38% | 8% | 54% | 58% | 42% |
| 5 | What if the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican, Ethel Maharg and Democrat, Michelle Lujan Grisham, who would you vote for? |
| 1389 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Issue | Likely November | 2020 Vote | Parent Of Child | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Economy | Educatio | Crime | Border S | Climate | Certain | Probable | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Bernalil | Dona Ana | Rest of | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Ethel Maharg (R) | 32% | 36% | 29% | 35% | 33% | 34% | 28% | 34% | 31% | 39% | 25% | 29% | 65% | 8% | 27% | 68% | 53% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 60% | 21% | 3% | 35% | 24% | 26% | 69% | 5% | 34% | 24% | 64% | 5% | 33% | 33% | 29% | 34% | 34% | 30% | 34% | 33% | 34% | 26% | 30% | 29% | 37% | 27% | 23% | 37% | 32% | 33% |
| Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) | 48% | 45% | 52% | 50% | 49% | 45% | 51% | 50% | 48% | 44% | 56% | 43% | 13% | 83% | 42% | 10% | 22% | 57% | 90% | 88% | 17% | 57% | 89% | 44% | 64% | 50% | 6% | 88% | 48% | 48% | 11% | 84% | 47% | 48% | 48% | 46% | 51% | 47% | 46% | 51% | 47% | 53% | 51% | 52% | 40% | 56% | 61% | 41% | 48% | 49% |
| Undecided | 19% | 20% | 19% | 15% | 18% | 22% | 21% | 16% | 21% | 18% | 19% | 28% | 23% | 9% | 31% | 22% | 25% | 22% | 6% | 11% | 24% | 22% | 8% | 21% | 12% | 24% | 25% | 7% | 18% | 27% | 25% | 11% | 19% | 19% | 23% | 20% | 15% | 22% | 20% | 16% | 19% | 20% | 18% | 19% | 22% | 17% | 16% | 21% | 21% | 18% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 20% | 18% | 33% | 29% | 38% | 62% | 50% | 37% | 13% | 36% | 42% | 20% | 18% | 21% | 33% | 14% | 8% | 39% | 33% | 22% | 41% | 8% | 16% | 12% | 13% | 82% | 18% | 40% | 47% | 22% | 78% | 34% | 32% | 33% | 36% | 36% | 27% | 80% | 20% | 33% | 32% | 34% | 38% | 8% | 54% | 58% | 42% |
| 6 | What if the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican, Mark Ronchetti and Democrat, Michelle Lujan Grisham, who would you vote for? |
| 1389 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Issue | Likely November | 2020 Vote | Parent Of Child | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Economy | Educatio | Crime | Border S | Climate | Certain | Probable | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Bernalil | Dona Ana | Rest of | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Mark Ronchetti (R) | 43% | 46% | 39% | 39% | 41% | 45% | 44% | 40% | 45% | 49% | 33% | 49% | 81% | 12% | 41% | 79% | 70% | 34% | 5% | 2% | 74% | 34% | 4% | 49% | 27% | 44% | 86% | 4% | 44% | 39% | 83% | 7% | 41% | 44% | 42% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 44% | 42% | 44% | 38% | 38% | 40% | 51% | 39% | 23% | 49% | 40% | 47% |
| Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) | 47% | 42% | 51% | 50% | 48% | 41% | 50% | 49% | 45% | 42% | 55% | 40% | 11% | 81% | 41% | 14% | 17% | 52% | 89% | 88% | 16% | 52% | 89% | 40% | 63% | 46% | 5% | 88% | 47% | 44% | 8% | 85% | 46% | 46% | 44% | 45% | 50% | 43% | 46% | 50% | 46% | 45% | 50% | 51% | 38% | 52% | 62% | 41% | 46% | 47% |
| Undecided | 11% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 14% | 6% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 19% | 7% | 13% | 14% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 7% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 17% | 9% | 8% | 13% | 10% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 14% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 16% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 9% | 14% | 11% | 14% | 5% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 20% | 18% | 33% | 29% | 38% | 62% | 50% | 37% | 13% | 36% | 42% | 20% | 18% | 21% | 33% | 14% | 8% | 39% | 33% | 22% | 41% | 8% | 16% | 12% | 13% | 82% | 18% | 40% | 47% | 22% | 78% | 34% | 32% | 33% | 36% | 36% | 27% | 80% | 20% | 33% | 32% | 34% | 38% | 8% | 54% | 58% | 42% |
| 7 | What if the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican, Greg Zanetti and Democrat, Michelle Lujan Grisham, who would you vote for? |
| 1389 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Issue | Likely November | 2020 Vote | Parent Of Child | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Economy | Educatio | Crime | Border S | Climate | Certain | Probable | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Bernalil | Dona Ana | Rest of | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Greg Zanetti (R) | 36% | 41% | 31% | 36% | 35% | 39% | 33% | 35% | 36% | 43% | 25% | 39% | 71% | 8% | 32% | 68% | 57% | 29% | 4% | 1% | 62% | 29% | 3% | 42% | 22% | 33% | 73% | 5% | 37% | 31% | 71% | 4% | 36% | 37% | 34% | 36% | 38% | 34% | 36% | 39% | 38% | 31% | 32% | 37% | 40% | 31% | 25% | 41% | 35% | 38% |
| Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) | 48% | 43% | 53% | 51% | 47% | 44% | 52% | 49% | 48% | 43% | 58% | 41% | 12% | 83% | 40% | 16% | 23% | 52% | 91% | 87% | 19% | 52% | 90% | 43% | 65% | 49% | 6% | 88% | 49% | 45% | 9% | 85% | 47% | 48% | 49% | 46% | 50% | 48% | 46% | 50% | 47% | 51% | 53% | 51% | 38% | 56% | 62% | 41% | 47% | 50% |
| Undecided | 16% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 17% | 20% | 16% | 9% | 27% | 16% | 20% | 20% | 5% | 11% | 18% | 20% | 7% | 15% | 14% | 18% | 21% | 8% | 14% | 24% | 20% | 11% | 17% | 15% | 17% | 18% | 12% | 18% | 18% | 11% | 16% | 19% | 15% | 12% | 22% | 13% | 13% | 18% | 18% | 13% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 20% | 18% | 33% | 29% | 38% | 62% | 50% | 37% | 13% | 36% | 42% | 20% | 18% | 21% | 33% | 14% | 8% | 39% | 33% | 22% | 41% | 8% | 16% | 12% | 13% | 82% | 18% | 40% | 47% | 22% | 78% | 34% | 32% | 33% | 36% | 36% | 27% | 80% | 20% | 33% | 32% | 34% | 38% | 8% | 54% | 58% | 42% |
| 8 | Which one of these issues will be most important to you when voting this year? The economy and inflation? Housing? Education? Crime? Border security? Climate change and water supplies? Or something else? |
| 1389 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Issue | Likely November | 2020 Vote | Parent Of Child | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Economy | Educatio | Crime | Border S | Climate | Certain | Probable | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Bernalil | Dona Ana | Rest of | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Economy And Inflation | 41% | 39% | 43% | 37% | 46% | 40% | 42% | 41% | 41% | 37% | 45% | 48% | 43% | 40% | 41% | 48% | 47% | 44% | 30% | 26% | 48% | 44% | 29% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 42% | 36% | 46% | 36% | 46% | 40% | 45% | 42% | 37% | 43% | 39% | 41% | 41% | 41% | 37% | 39% | 46% | 33% | 42% | 47% | 39% | 44% |
| Housing | 3% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 1% |
| Education | 8% | 6% | 9% | 16% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 12% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 4% | 10% | 11% | 4% | 5% | 10% | 13% | 10% | 4% | 10% | 12% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 10% | 4% | 10% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 14% | 7% | 10% | 4% |
| Crime | 16% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 18% | 19% | 12% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 19% | 10% | 19% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 15% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 12% | 22% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 15% | 21% | 15% | 18% | 15% | 16% | 18% | 16% | 13% | 14% | 17% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 19% | 17% | 12% | 26% | 11% | 10% | 18% | 13% |
| Border Security | 12% | 16% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 15% | 15% | 8% | 15% | 15% | 8% | 14% | 24% | 2% | 12% | 32% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 12% | 13% | 28% | 1% | 9% | 14% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 14% | 6% | 11% | 10% | 16% | 9% | 8% | 16% | 11% | 14% |
| Climate Change / Water Supplies | 13% | 14% | 12% | 14% | 10% | 10% | 17% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 23% | 11% | 1% | 4% | 13% | 28% | 38% | 3% | 13% | 32% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 24% | 8% | 15% | 9% | 12% | 18% | 11% | 12% | 16% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 17% | 11% | 15% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 16% |
| Other | 4% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 8% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 5% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 20% | 18% | 33% | 29% | 38% | 62% | 50% | 37% | 13% | 36% | 42% | 20% | 18% | 21% | 33% | 14% | 8% | 39% | 33% | 22% | 41% | 8% | 16% | 12% | 13% | 82% | 18% | 40% | 47% | 22% | 78% | 34% | 32% | 33% | 36% | 36% | 27% | 80% | 20% | 33% | 32% | 34% | 38% | 8% | 54% | 58% | 42% |