Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25334
 
In CA, 41% of Biden voters have concerns about Biden, 30% of Trump voters have concerns about Trump

The 'Hold Your Nose' Election: In California, Voters Prepare to Mail Ballots Supporting Biden While At The Same Time Expecting That Trump
Will be Re-Elected; 45% Have Lost All Confidence in the Executive Branch; Most Not Yet Focused on Feinstein Insider-Trading Allegations:


In an election today for President of the United States, Presumptive Democratic Party Nominee Joe Biden Defeats Incumbent Republican President Donald J. Trump by 28 points, 58% to 30%, ensuring that California's critical 55 Electoral College votes remain safely blue, according to fresh SurveyUSA opinion research conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV in San Diego, the Union Tribune newspaper, and KABC-TV in Los Angeles.

But: in an oddball year, which may or may not result in an oddball November election, California likely voters have markedly missed feelings about the 2 candidates they are left with.

Of those voting for Biden, 41% do so with reservations, including a majority of Biden voters under age 50, a majority of Latinos and a majority of independents. Just 57% of Biden voters in California say they cast their vote enthusiastically, but that number never gets as high as 70% among Biden voters, except with CA's comparatively small group of African Americans, 70% of whom vote Joe enthusiastically, 30% vote Joe with reservations. Whether this tepid reception translates into lower Democratic voter turnout in more contested battleground states remains to be seen. Even with luke-warm support, Democrats are expected to carry California, where Democrats outnumber Republicans approximately 5:3.

Of those voting for Trump, 30% do so with reservations, including 41% of young voters, 41% of those who live in the Bay Area, 42% of moderates, and 43% of those who live in an urban CA setting.

Most Striking: When the same group of likely voters who just gave Biden a 28-point win are asked, regardless of who you just voted for, who do you think will be elected in November, a plurality, 42% say Trump will be re-elected. A slightly smaller number, 39%, say Biden will be elected. Just 2% think the election will not happen as scheduled in November, because of public health concerns. Said another way: CA independents vote for Biden by 29 points. But CA independents think Trump will be re-elected by 12 points, 41 percentage points of dissonance.

Confidence in America's core institutions has been shaken:

* Just 8% of CA registered voters say they have "total" confidence in the US Congress.
* Just 12% of CA registered voters say they have "total" confidence in the Executive Branch of the Federal Government
* Just 16% have "total" confidence in the Supreme Court of the United States.

By contrast:

* 25% have lost all confidence in the Supreme Court of the United States.
* 36% have lost all confidence in the United States Congress.
* 45%, a plurality, have lost all confidence in the American Presidency and the Executive Branch.

When civilizations lose confidence in their institutions, chaos ensues.

58% of CA voters say they do not know enough about insider trading charges that have been raised about stock trades made in the early days of the pandemic by US Senior Senator Dianne Feinstein's husband. Of those with an opinion, 27% say Feinstein is guilty of insider trading, based on what is publicly known at this hour. Just 15% say Feinstein is not guilty.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 California adults 05/18/20 through 05/19/20. Of the adults, 822 are registered to vote. Of the registered, SurveyUSA identified 537 respondents likely to vote in a November general election. To put Biden's 28-point CA lead into historical perspective: In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried CA by 30 points. In 2012, Democrat Barack Obama carried CA by 23 points over Mitt Romney. In 2008, Obama carried CA by 24 points over John McCain. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry carried CA by 10 points over George W Bush. In 2000, Democrat Al Gore carried CA by 12 points over Bush.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of California?
950 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Yes87%86%87%79%88%88%93%83%90%88%**85%83%92%92%79%91%86%87%90%95%67%84%94%79%89%90%92%80%86%89%73%83%90%84%87%
No12%12%11%18%9%11%7%14%9%10%**13%16%8%7%20%9%14%12%9%4%28%14%5%19%9%9%7%17%12%9%25%15%9%15%11%
Not Sure2%2%2%3%2%1%0%3%1%2%**2%1%0%1%1%0%1%1%1%1%5%2%1%2%2%1%1%3%2%2%2%2%2%1%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%48%52%29%21%28%23%50%50%60%4%26%10%28%45%20%11%16%37%20%11%16%34%50%27%34%39%55%45%38%53%9%20%41%20%19%
 
2In November, Californians will have the chance to vote for President. Which best describes you?
I am certain I will not vote in the election for President? I am not sure if I will have a chance to vote in the election for President? I probably will vote in the election for President? Or I am 100% certain I will vote in the election for President?
822 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Certain Not To Vote18%17%18%18%19%13%23%18%18%17%**18%18%21%15%20%30%17%20%14%10%19%16%19%20%19%16%17%19%24%13%20%20%20%16%15%
Not Sure Will Have a Chance5%5%6%11%8%3%0%9%2%4%**9%4%3%6%5%4%5%6%6%3%13%5%4%5%8%3%5%6%9%4%2%3%5%6%7%
Probably Will Vote11%11%12%18%17%9%2%17%6%11%**12%12%9%10%13%7%13%13%11%6%19%10%10%17%10%9%10%14%11%12%10%11%11%12%11%
100% Certain To Vote65%67%64%53%57%75%75%55%75%68%**60%66%67%69%61%59%65%62%69%82%49%68%67%58%63%72%68%62%56%72%68%66%64%66%67%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%26%21%28%24%48%52%61%4%25%9%30%48%19%12%16%37%21%12%12%33%55%25%35%40%58%42%37%55%8%19%42%20%20%
 
3If the November election for President were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated)
537 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Donald Trump (R)30%35%26%26%32%37%24%29%31%35%**21%27%82%2%20%95%69%22%4%2%32%29%30%16%36%33%35%23%29%28%51%41%29%31%20%
Joe Biden (D)58%53%62%55%51%52%70%53%61%53%**67%51%11%90%49%2%18%59%90%93%59%59%57%69%51%56%56%60%57%60%42%45%56%55%74%
Another Candidate5%7%4%10%5%4%2%8%3%5%**8%2%2%3%15%2%4%6%4%5%5%7%4%9%6%3%2%10%5%6%2%8%5%5%2%
Undecided7%6%9%8%12%6%5%10%6%6%**5%20%5%4%16%1%9%13%3%0%4%6%9%6%7%8%7%7%9%7%4%6%9%8%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%48%52%21%19%32%28%40%60%63%4%24%10%31%50%17%11%16%35%22%15%9%34%56%22%34%44%61%39%32%60%8%19%41%20%20%
 
4Do you vote for Donald Trump enthusiastically? Or with reservations?
162 Trump VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 8.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Enthusiastically68%63%75%59%74%72%64%66%69%65%**74%84%69%**67%91%59%55%****90%63%67%70%67%68%70%64%57%70%87%69%62%84%59%
With Reservations30%36%24%41%26%24%36%34%28%34%**20%16%30%**28%9%39%42%****10%32%33%23%31%32%29%33%43%28%13%28%36%16%41%
Not Sure2%1%2%0%0%4%0%0%2%1%**5%0%1%**6%0%2%3%****0%4%0%7%2%0%1%3%0%3%0%3%2%0%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Trump Voters100%56%44%19%20%39%22%39%61%74%1%16%9%84%3%12%33%37%25%3%1%10%33%57%11%40%49%70%30%31%55%14%26%40%21%13%
 
5Do you vote for Joe Biden enthusiastically? Or with reservations?
309 Biden VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 7.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Enthusiastically57%53%60%43%50%66%61%46%63%59%70%48%66%48%60%47%**68%52%65%50%65%59%54%63%66%47%65%46%64%52%69%66%55%56%56%
With Reservations41%47%37%56%47%34%36%52%35%39%30%52%34%52%38%53%**32%45%35%48%35%41%43%37%34%49%33%54%36%45%31%34%44%43%40%
Not Sure2%0%3%1%3%0%3%2%2%3%0%1%0%0%2%0%**0%4%0%2%0%1%3%1%0%4%3%0%0%3%0%0%1%1%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Biden Voters100%44%56%20%16%29%34%37%63%59%6%27%9%6%79%15%0%5%36%34%24%9%35%56%26%30%44%59%41%31%62%6%15%40%19%26%
 
6Just your best guess, what do you think will actually happen this November?
537 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Trump Will Be Re-elected42%45%39%47%46%50%27%46%39%47%**34%37%82%18%42%92%69%42%17%18%47%40%42%31%40%49%43%40%37%42%59%53%42%46%29%
Biden Will Be Elected39%41%37%31%29%36%56%30%45%34%**50%37%10%61%30%7%12%41%58%63%31%35%43%44%36%39%39%40%42%40%23%26%37%34%60%
Someone Else Will Be Elected2%3%1%6%2%1%1%4%1%2%**1%3%2%1%5%0%3%1%4%0%2%4%1%2%4%1%2%2%2%1%8%5%2%0%1%
Will Not Be a Presidential Election2%1%3%2%5%1%2%3%2%2%**2%3%2%2%1%0%5%2%1%2%1%4%1%2%4%1%2%3%3%2%3%3%3%2%0%
Not Sure15%10%18%15%19%12%15%17%13%15%**12%18%5%17%22%1%11%14%21%17%20%16%13%21%16%10%14%15%16%15%7%13%16%18%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%48%52%21%19%32%28%40%60%63%4%24%10%31%50%17%11%16%35%22%15%9%34%56%22%34%44%61%39%32%60%8%19%41%20%20%
 
7Based on what you know so far, is Senator Dianne Feinstein innocent of insider stock trading? Guilty of insider stock trading? Or do you not know enough to say?
822 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Innocent 15%20%11%19%11%10%21%16%15%17%**13%9%14%18%14%14%12%13%20%21%15%13%17%14%15%16%16%14%18%14%13%11%14%12%26%
Guilty27%32%23%23%26%34%24%25%29%28%**26%26%43%17%30%54%39%24%16%16%35%25%26%22%30%28%31%22%22%28%45%32%25%36%18%
Do Not Know Enough To Say58%48%66%57%62%57%55%60%56%56%**60%65%43%66%56%31%48%62%64%63%51%61%57%64%55%56%53%64%60%58%42%57%61%51%56%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%26%21%28%24%48%52%61%4%25%9%30%48%19%12%16%37%21%12%12%33%55%25%35%40%58%42%37%55%8%19%42%20%20%
 
8At this moment in American history, do you have total confidence in the United States Congress? Some confidence in the United States Congress? Or no confidence in the United States Congress?
822 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Total8%10%6%15%10%5%1%12%4%7%**9%5%12%8%1%20%7%5%7%6%8%4%10%5%7%10%10%5%13%5%4%2%10%7%8%
Some50%47%53%53%51%49%48%52%49%49%**56%45%47%58%36%36%51%50%57%54%55%49%49%53%51%48%50%51%50%52%35%50%54%43%49%
None36%41%32%28%30%40%46%29%43%37%**30%44%36%28%55%41%38%38%29%39%26%39%37%34%35%38%34%39%32%37%51%42%31%40%37%
Not Sure6%3%9%5%10%5%5%7%5%6%**5%6%5%5%7%3%4%7%7%2%11%7%4%8%7%4%6%5%4%6%10%5%4%10%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%26%21%28%24%48%52%61%4%25%9%30%48%19%12%16%37%21%12%12%33%55%25%35%40%58%42%37%55%8%19%42%20%20%
 
9At this moment in American history, do you have total confidence in the Supreme Court of the United States? Some confidence in the Supreme Court of the United States? Or no confidence in the Supreme Court of the United States?
822 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Total16%20%13%17%18%17%13%17%15%16%**15%20%25%12%14%30%24%14%13%6%13%14%18%10%18%18%20%11%19%13%24%16%19%18%9%
Some53%49%56%52%52%54%52%52%53%56%**48%47%57%51%46%53%58%54%48%51%56%51%53%53%53%52%55%50%49%57%43%57%52%50%53%
None25%28%23%25%22%23%30%24%26%22%**30%27%12%32%31%14%15%24%33%40%20%29%24%28%23%26%19%34%27%24%25%20%25%25%30%
Not Sure6%3%9%5%8%6%5%6%6%6%**7%6%6%5%9%3%4%8%6%4%11%6%5%9%6%4%7%5%5%6%9%7%5%7%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%26%21%28%24%48%52%61%4%25%9%30%48%19%12%16%37%21%12%12%33%55%25%35%40%58%42%37%55%8%19%42%20%20%
 
10At this moment in American history, do you have total confidence in the Executive Branch of the Federal Government? Some confidence in the Executive Branch of the Federal Government? Or no confidence in the Executive Branch of the Federal Government?
822 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Total12%15%9%16%12%12%8%14%10%13%**11%11%24%6%9%33%23%8%5%2%12%8%14%7%14%14%14%9%13%13%4%7%15%14%9%
Some36%34%39%40%42%36%28%41%32%37%**36%37%52%26%38%51%50%42%16%21%44%38%34%38%36%36%39%34%40%33%43%40%35%44%28%
None45%47%43%36%38%44%60%37%52%43%**46%46%18%61%46%14%20%42%72%73%30%44%48%45%42%47%41%49%40%48%42%46%44%33%56%
Not Sure7%4%10%8%8%8%3%8%6%7%**7%7%7%6%7%2%7%8%6%4%14%9%4%10%9%4%6%8%7%7%11%7%6%9%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%26%21%28%24%48%52%61%4%25%9%30%48%19%12%16%37%21%12%12%33%55%25%35%40%58%42%37%55%8%19%42%20%20%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.