| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25533 |
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In California's 53rd US Congressional District, Democrat Jacobs Well Positioned to Defeat Democrat Gomez, Both of Whom Are Vying For US House Seat Left Open by Retirement of Democrat Davis; Blue Seat Certain to Remain Blue When Votes Are Counted in 6 Wks: In an election today in California's 53rd US Congressional District, Democrat Sarah Jacobs defeats Democrat Georgette Gomez 38% to 24%, with another 38% of likely voters undecided, according to SurveyUSA pre-election research conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV in San Diego and the Union Tribune. Jacobs' support is older, which makes it more reliable. Gomez' support is younger, which makes it more dicey. Gomez leads narrowly among the districts Latino voters, but Jacobs has a 19-point advantage among white voters, which, today, helps her carry the district. Not surprisingly, given that 2 Democrats and no Republicans are on the general election ballot, 71% of the Republicans who are voting for Gomez and 65% of the conservatives who are voting for Gomez say they vote for Gomez "with reservations." 55% of Republicans voting for Jacobs and 70% of conservatives voting for Jacobs say they vote for Jacobs "with reservations." Consistent with this: Republicans are 3 times more likely than Democrats to say they are undecided between Jacobs and Gomez if filling out a ballot today. Jacobs leads by 18 points among self-described "moderates" but by just 6 points among "liberals." Of those in the 53rd District voting for Joe Biden for President, Jacobs leads by 12 points, 45% to 33%. Of those voting for Donald Trump for President in 2020, 6 in 10 are undecided between Jacobs and Gomez. Of those Trump 2020 voters who have a preference at this hour, Jacobs leads by 14 points, 26% to 12%. Gomez outperforms in the urban portions of the district. Jacobs runs strong in the suburban portions. Jacobs leads by 21 points among suburban women, leads by 15 points among suburban men. Of all Jacobs voters, 21% are voting "against Gomez," 73% are voting "for Jacobs." Of all Gomez voters, 19% are voting "against Jacobs," 71% are voting "for Gomez." About: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 individuals from CA-53 09/18/2020 through 09/21/2020. Of those contacted, 594 are registered to vote. Of the registered, SurveyUSA identified 534 who are likely to return a ballot before the 11/03/2020 deadline. 60% of likely voters plan to vote by US mail before Election Day. 14% of likely voters plan to vote in person, before Election Day. 23% of likely voters plan to vote in-person on Election Day, Tuesday 11/03/2020. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (51% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Sample for the home-telephone portion of the survey was purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC, of known registered voters in CA-53. Voters not reachable on a home telephone (49% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their desktop computer, laptop computer, smartphone, or tablet, using online panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. In California's open "Top 2" primary system, the Top 2 finishers in the primary election advance to the general election, even if the Top 2 finishers are from the same political party. CA-53 curves in a crescent shape around and to the East of the city of San Diego, from Santee and El Cajon on the East almost to Otay Mesa to the South, including all of La Mesa and most of Bonita. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of California? |
| 650 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Yes | 91% | 94% | 89% | 84% | 90% | 95% | 99% | 87% | 97% | 92% | ** | 92% | 83% | 92% | 96% | 91% | 98% | 94% | 92% | 93% | 92% | 95% | 92% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 94% | 98% | 100% | 100% | 86% | 90% | 93% | 84% | 94% | 93% | 91% | 92% | 97% | 85% | 91% | 92% | ** | 96% | 89% | 86% | 98% |
| No | 7% | 4% | 9% | 12% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 10% | 2% | 6% | ** | 6% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 2% | 7% | 6% | - | - | - | - | - | 4% | 2% | - | - | 12% | 6% | 6% | 12% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 11% | 6% | 6% | ** | 4% | 9% | 11% | 1% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 2% | ** | 2% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | - | - | - | - | - | 2% | 0% | - | - | 2% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | ** | 0% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 48% | 52% | 30% | 26% | 24% | 20% | 56% | 44% | 63% | 2% | 27% | 8% | 26% | 45% | 23% | 7% | 17% | 36% | 24% | 12% | 24% | 36% | 35% | 18% | 72% | 60% | 14% | 23% | 30% | 45% | 30% | 61% | 13% | 36% | 51% | 26% | 35% | 40% | 24% | 75% | 49% | 51% | 43% | 53% | 5% | 24% | 27% | 54% | 46% |
 | Is your opinion of Georgette Gomez extremely favorable? Favorable? Neutral? Unfavorable? Extremely unfavorable? Or, do you have no opinion of her? |
| 594 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Extremely Favorable | 8% | 7% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 3% | 6% | 12% | 4% | 9% | ** | 10% | 2% | 2% | 15% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 22% | 11% | 1% | 4% | 18% | 3% | 10% | 4% | 38% | 5% | 2% | 15% | 1% | 13% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 12% | 6% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 12% | 5% | ** | 2% | 8% | 4% | 13% |
| Favorable | 16% | 18% | 13% | 17% | 16% | 14% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 17% | ** | 17% | 6% | 8% | 24% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 14% | 20% | 32% | 8% | 14% | 24% | 16% | 17% | 19% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 25% | 6% | 23% | 14% | 14% | 18% | 16% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 23% | 12% | ** | 13% | 10% | 17% | 15% |
| Neutral | 29% | 29% | 29% | 35% | 29% | 22% | 28% | 32% | 25% | 28% | ** | 30% | 32% | 26% | 31% | 30% | 15% | 25% | 40% | 20% | 31% | 22% | 40% | 24% | 38% | 26% | 31% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 30% | 25% | 31% | 30% | 28% | 30% | 31% | 27% | 31% | 32% | 29% | 27% | 33% | 30% | 30% | ** | 30% | 30% | 34% | 24% |
| Unfavorable | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 9% | 9% | 5% | 9% | 6% | ** | 8% | 4% | 10% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 9% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 4% | 13% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 12% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 7% | ** | 5% | 9% | 4% | 9% |
| Extremely Unfavorable | 8% | 9% | 7% | 2% | 8% | 15% | 9% | 5% | 12% | 8% | ** | 7% | 14% | 18% | 2% | 10% | 23% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 15% | 18% | 2% | 23% | 2% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 12% | 4% | 6% | 10% | ** | 15% | 6% | 4% | 12% |
| No Opinion | 32% | 30% | 33% | 32% | 28% | 36% | 31% | 30% | 34% | 32% | ** | 27% | 42% | 35% | 23% | 42% | 42% | 36% | 28% | 31% | 21% | 38% | 28% | 28% | 37% | 28% | 32% | 16% | 36% | 39% | 24% | 32% | 25% | 31% | 35% | 29% | 37% | 30% | 30% | 28% | 32% | 28% | 34% | 22% | 36% | ** | 35% | 38% | 35% | 28% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 28% | 26% | 25% | 22% | 53% | 47% | 64% | 2% | 27% | 7% | 26% | 48% | 23% | 7% | 17% | 36% | 24% | 12% | 24% | 36% | 36% | 18% | 72% | 60% | 14% | 23% | 31% | 48% | 30% | 61% | 12% | 36% | 52% | 23% | 36% | 41% | 24% | 75% | 52% | 48% | 43% | 53% | 4% | 25% | 26% | 51% | 49% |
 | What is your opinion of Sara Jacobs? |
| 594 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Extremely Favorable | 13% | 15% | 11% | 3% | 10% | 19% | 20% | 6% | 20% | 13% | ** | 12% | 10% | 7% | 20% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 21% | 14% | 4% | 12% | 19% | 10% | 13% | 11% | 18% | 12% | 7% | 18% | 5% | 16% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 14% | 12% | 17% | 7% | 11% | 13% | ** | 11% | 14% | 5% | 21% |
| Favorable | 23% | 20% | 26% | 23% | 20% | 24% | 26% | 22% | 25% | 24% | ** | 22% | 17% | 14% | 26% | 28% | 4% | 17% | 24% | 26% | 30% | 13% | 24% | 27% | 21% | 25% | 29% | 14% | 18% | 11% | 30% | 13% | 31% | 20% | 19% | 27% | 26% | 22% | 23% | 21% | 24% | 24% | 23% | 25% | 22% | ** | 20% | 23% | 25% | 21% |
| Neutral | 29% | 29% | 29% | 35% | 36% | 23% | 21% | 36% | 22% | 30% | ** | 29% | 27% | 28% | 31% | 27% | 28% | 32% | 30% | 32% | 23% | 31% | 30% | 29% | 33% | 29% | 26% | 49% | 25% | 26% | 28% | 29% | 30% | 36% | 36% | 23% | 25% | 33% | 26% | 29% | 28% | 24% | 34% | 35% | 25% | ** | 29% | 22% | 32% | 27% |
| Unfavorable | 10% | 11% | 8% | 6% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 9% | 10% | 8% | ** | 14% | 5% | 23% | 4% | 6% | 17% | 15% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 15% | 13% | 3% | 14% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 15% | 23% | 4% | 20% | 5% | 15% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 9% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 12% | ** | 10% | 14% | 8% | 11% |
| Extremely Unfavorable | 7% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 8% | 11% | 4% | 9% | 5% | ** | 7% | 16% | 12% | 2% | 9% | 34% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 17% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 10% | 15% | 3% | 19% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 9% | 11% | 5% | 9% | 4% | 5% | 8% | ** | 11% | 6% | 4% | 10% |
| No Opinion | 19% | 18% | 20% | 27% | 19% | 16% | 12% | 23% | 14% | 19% | ** | 16% | 25% | 15% | 17% | 23% | 17% | 21% | 17% | 16% | 26% | 20% | 17% | 19% | 18% | 17% | 19% | 6% | 21% | 19% | 17% | 14% | 16% | 12% | 19% | 21% | 22% | 18% | 18% | 12% | 21% | 15% | 24% | 17% | 20% | ** | 19% | 22% | 27% | 10% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 28% | 26% | 25% | 22% | 53% | 47% | 64% | 2% | 27% | 7% | 26% | 48% | 23% | 7% | 17% | 36% | 24% | 12% | 24% | 36% | 36% | 18% | 72% | 60% | 14% | 23% | 31% | 48% | 30% | 61% | 12% | 36% | 52% | 23% | 36% | 41% | 24% | 75% | 52% | 48% | 43% | 53% | 4% | 25% | 26% | 51% | 49% |
| 4 | California's 53rd congressional district will elect a US Representative on November 3. Not everyone has a chance to vote in an election. Which best describes you? |
| 594 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Not Interested | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | ** | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | 2% | 2% | - | - | 4% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | ** | 1% | 0% | 2% | 2% |
| Not Sure If Time | 6% | 7% | 6% | 12% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 9% | 3% | 6% | ** | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 0% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 8% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | 7% | 1% | - | - | 19% | 8% | 2% | 16% | 5% | 2% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 12% | 4% | 7% | ** | 6% | 8% | 9% | 4% |
| Almost Certain | 18% | 21% | 16% | 23% | 20% | 15% | 15% | 22% | 15% | 15% | ** | 26% | 22% | 18% | 16% | 22% | 24% | 15% | 24% | 15% | 7% | 17% | 24% | 13% | 100% | 0% | 19% | 23% | 19% | 17% | 16% | 17% | 19% | 10% | 18% | 21% | 24% | 15% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 16% | 21% | 19% | 17% | ** | 22% | 12% | 21% | 16% |
| 100% Certain | 72% | 68% | 75% | 60% | 69% | 80% | 79% | 64% | 80% | 76% | ** | 64% | 63% | 74% | 76% | 65% | 69% | 80% | 65% | 74% | 82% | 77% | 65% | 77% | 0% | 100% | 81% | 77% | 81% | 72% | 79% | 83% | 81% | 63% | 71% | 74% | 55% | 75% | 77% | 69% | 71% | 79% | 62% | 71% | 74% | ** | 69% | 79% | 65% | 78% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | ** | 1% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | 1% | 1% | - | - | 4% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | ** | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 28% | 26% | 25% | 22% | 53% | 47% | 64% | 2% | 27% | 7% | 26% | 48% | 23% | 7% | 17% | 36% | 24% | 12% | 24% | 36% | 36% | 18% | 72% | 60% | 14% | 23% | 31% | 48% | 30% | 61% | 12% | 36% | 52% | 23% | 36% | 41% | 24% | 75% | 52% | 48% | 43% | 53% | 4% | 25% | 26% | 51% | 49% |
 | How will you cast your ballot this year? By mail? In person before election day? Or in person on election day? |
| 534 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| By Mail | 60% | 60% | 59% | 63% | 53% | 55% | 67% | 58% | 61% | 63% | ** | 53% | 59% | 53% | 64% | 59% | 51% | 52% | 62% | 54% | 80% | 51% | 62% | 63% | 56% | 60% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 51% | 61% | 49% | 64% | 61% | 55% | 62% | 63% | 62% | 59% | 58% | 61% | 62% | 59% | 58% | 63% | ** | 65% | 60% | 67% | 53% |
| In Person Before Election Day | 14% | 12% | 16% | 16% | 20% | 12% | 9% | 18% | 10% | 14% | ** | 15% | 12% | 13% | 19% | 7% | 5% | 13% | 13% | 23% | 9% | 10% | 13% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 11% | 17% | 20% | 17% | 12% | 12% | 17% | 11% | 6% | 16% | 10% | 18% | 16% | 11% | ** | 9% | 12% | 10% | 18% |
| In Person On Election Day | 23% | 24% | 21% | 12% | 26% | 31% | 21% | 19% | 26% | 19% | ** | 29% | 25% | 34% | 15% | 27% | 41% | 36% | 18% | 19% | 11% | 37% | 18% | 16% | 22% | 23% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 37% | 15% | 38% | 15% | 19% | 23% | 23% | 20% | 19% | 25% | 33% | 19% | 25% | 18% | 22% | 23% | ** | 22% | 23% | 19% | 26% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 3% | 4% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 4% | ** | 3% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 7% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | ** | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 26% | 25% | 26% | 23% | 51% | 49% | 65% | 2% | 27% | 7% | 27% | 49% | 22% | 7% | 18% | 36% | 24% | 12% | 26% | 36% | 35% | 21% | 79% | 60% | 14% | 23% | 31% | 51% | 30% | 61% | 10% | 35% | 55% | 21% | 36% | 44% | 24% | 76% | 56% | 44% | 43% | 54% | 3% | 26% | 26% | 49% | 51% |
 | If the November election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? |
| 534 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Georgette Gomez (D) | 24% | 28% | 20% | 36% | 33% | 13% | 14% | 35% | 13% | 22% | ** | 31% | 16% | 11% | 33% | 21% | 8% | 11% | 21% | 41% | 34% | 10% | 21% | 38% | 25% | 24% | 22% | 44% | 18% | 13% | 33% | 12% | 33% | 32% | 21% | 25% | 18% | 28% | 23% | 12% | 27% | 20% | 29% | 30% | 20% | ** | 26% | 15% | 26% | 22% |
| Sara Jacobs (D) | 38% | 41% | 35% | 27% | 38% | 44% | 44% | 32% | 44% | 41% | ** | 29% | 37% | 25% | 47% | 35% | 13% | 34% | 39% | 40% | 52% | 28% | 39% | 44% | 34% | 39% | 39% | 34% | 38% | 22% | 45% | 26% | 45% | 36% | 34% | 40% | 34% | 34% | 44% | 40% | 38% | 43% | 32% | 37% | 39% | ** | 41% | 36% | 32% | 43% |
| Undecided | 38% | 31% | 45% | 37% | 29% | 43% | 42% | 33% | 43% | 37% | ** | 40% | 46% | 63% | 20% | 44% | 79% | 55% | 39% | 19% | 14% | 62% | 39% | 18% | 41% | 37% | 39% | 21% | 44% | 64% | 22% | 62% | 22% | 32% | 45% | 35% | 47% | 38% | 34% | 49% | 34% | 37% | 39% | 34% | 41% | ** | 33% | 49% | 41% | 35% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 26% | 25% | 26% | 23% | 51% | 49% | 65% | 2% | 27% | 7% | 27% | 49% | 22% | 7% | 18% | 36% | 24% | 12% | 26% | 36% | 35% | 21% | 79% | 60% | 14% | 23% | 31% | 51% | 30% | 61% | 10% | 35% | 55% | 21% | 36% | 44% | 24% | 76% | 56% | 44% | 43% | 54% | 3% | 26% | 26% | 49% | 51% |
 | Is yours more a vote FOR Gomez? Or is yours more a vote AGAINST Jacobs? |
| 129 Gomez Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 14.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| For Gomez | 71% | 66% | 78% | 76% | 77% | 43% | 72% | 76% | 57% | 68% | ** | 79% | ** | 38% | 80% | 60% | ** | 27% | 61% | 79% | 98% | 34% | 61% | 85% | 64% | 73% | 74% | 78% | 56% | 27% | 82% | 29% | 80% | 86% | 74% | 66% | 49% | 79% | 68% | 72% | 69% | 64% | 75% | 81% | 58% | ** | 57% | 60% | 70% | 73% |
| Against Jacobs | 19% | 25% | 12% | 13% | 16% | 47% | 21% | 14% | 34% | 22% | ** | 12% | ** | 55% | 12% | 25% | ** | 61% | 25% | 11% | 0% | 56% | 25% | 8% | 20% | 19% | 19% | 8% | 44% | 61% | 8% | 58% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 23% | 24% | 21% | 19% | 15% | 21% | 28% | 14% | 12% | 29% | ** | 35% | 20% | 20% | 18% |
| Not Sure | 9% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 7% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 10% | ** | 10% | ** | 7% | 8% | 15% | ** | 12% | 14% | 9% | 2% | 9% | 14% | 7% | 16% | 7% | 7% | 14% | 0% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 9% | 0% | 12% | 10% | 26% | 0% | 13% | 13% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 13% | ** | 8% | 21% | 9% | 9% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Gomez Voters | 100% | 57% | 43% | 39% | 35% | 14% | 13% | 73% | 27% | 59% | 1% | 35% | 4% | 13% | 67% | 19% | 2% | 8% | 32% | 40% | 16% | 10% | 32% | 56% | 21% | 79% | 53% | 26% | 17% | 17% | 69% | 14% | 83% | 13% | 31% | 56% | 16% | 42% | 42% | 11% | 88% | 46% | 54% | 53% | 46% | 1% | 28% | 16% | 53% | 47% |
 | Do you cast your vote for Gomez enthusiastically? Or with reservations? |
| 129 Gomez Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 16 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Enthusiastically | 53% | 41% | 69% | 49% | 64% | 40% | 48% | 56% | 44% | 49% | ** | 64% | ** | 25% | 65% | 25% | ** | 28% | 28% | 74% | 62% | 35% | 28% | 71% | 34% | 58% | 47% | 79% | 40% | 24% | 62% | 24% | 58% | 59% | 65% | 45% | 39% | 56% | 49% | 32% | 52% | 53% | 48% | 53% | 48% | ** | 44% | 54% | 42% | 65% |
| With Reservations | 34% | 42% | 23% | 28% | 28% | 56% | 45% | 28% | 51% | 33% | ** | 28% | ** | 71% | 20% | 60% | ** | 72% | 62% | 16% | 0% | 65% | 62% | 11% | 57% | 28% | 33% | 15% | 51% | 72% | 22% | 72% | 26% | 30% | 32% | 36% | 48% | 25% | 41% | 55% | 33% | 39% | 32% | 28% | 44% | ** | 50% | 33% | 34% | 33% |
| Not Sure | 13% | 18% | 8% | 23% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 16% | 6% | 18% | ** | 8% | ** | 4% | 15% | 15% | ** | 0% | 10% | 10% | 38% | 0% | 10% | 18% | 9% | 15% | 19% | 6% | 9% | 3% | 16% | 4% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 19% | 13% | 19% | 10% | 13% | 14% | 8% | 20% | 19% | 9% | ** | 6% | 13% | 24% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Gomez Voters | 100% | 57% | 43% | 39% | 35% | 14% | 13% | 73% | 27% | 59% | 1% | 35% | 4% | 13% | 67% | 19% | 2% | 8% | 32% | 40% | 16% | 10% | 32% | 56% | 21% | 79% | 53% | 26% | 17% | 17% | 69% | 14% | 83% | 13% | 31% | 56% | 16% | 42% | 42% | 11% | 88% | 46% | 54% | 53% | 46% | 1% | 28% | 16% | 53% | 47% |
 | Is yours more a vote FOR Jacobs? Or is yours more a vote AGAINST Gomez? |
| 203 Jacobs Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 7.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| For Jacobs | 73% | 72% | 75% | 70% | 69% | 72% | 82% | 69% | 77% | 76% | ** | 63% | 71% | 42% | 85% | 67% | ** | 40% | 78% | 88% | 88% | 36% | 78% | 88% | 62% | 76% | 76% | 84% | 60% | 40% | 89% | 37% | 86% | 70% | 69% | 76% | 67% | 75% | 74% | 76% | 72% | 72% | 74% | 71% | 73% | ** | 66% | 82% | 75% | 73% |
| Against Gomez | 21% | 23% | 18% | 17% | 27% | 22% | 16% | 23% | 19% | 18% | ** | 35% | 7% | 54% | 9% | 26% | ** | 59% | 17% | 2% | 7% | 62% | 17% | 4% | 23% | 20% | 18% | 16% | 34% | 57% | 4% | 60% | 11% | 27% | 22% | 20% | 26% | 17% | 22% | 19% | 22% | 22% | 20% | 23% | 22% | ** | 28% | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Not Sure | 6% | 5% | 7% | 13% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 8% | 4% | 5% | ** | 3% | 22% | 4% | 6% | 7% | ** | 1% | 6% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 16% | 4% | 6% | 0% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 10% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | ** | 7% | 3% | 10% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Jacobs Voters | 100% | 54% | 46% | 18% | 25% | 30% | 27% | 43% | 57% | 70% | 3% | 20% | 6% | 18% | 61% | 20% | 3% | 17% | 37% | 25% | 16% | 19% | 37% | 41% | 18% | 82% | 62% | 13% | 23% | 18% | 61% | 21% | 73% | 10% | 32% | 58% | 19% | 32% | 50% | 25% | 75% | 63% | 37% | 41% | 55% | 4% | 28% | 25% | 41% | 59% |
 | Do you cast your vote for Jacobs enthusiastically? Or with reservations? |
| 203 Jacobs Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Enthusiastically | 54% | 51% | 57% | 56% | 45% | 53% | 61% | 49% | 57% | 52% | ** | 63% | 41% | 41% | 65% | 34% | ** | 31% | 57% | 70% | 53% | 27% | 57% | 64% | 40% | 57% | 58% | 57% | 42% | 36% | 67% | 31% | 60% | 63% | 51% | 52% | 49% | 56% | 53% | 44% | 56% | 60% | 43% | 51% | 58% | ** | 50% | 67% | 45% | 59% |
| With Reservations | 37% | 42% | 31% | 31% | 47% | 36% | 33% | 40% | 35% | 38% | ** | 28% | 52% | 55% | 28% | 47% | ** | 66% | 28% | 25% | 42% | 70% | 28% | 32% | 44% | 35% | 33% | 35% | 48% | 59% | 23% | 65% | 30% | 32% | 39% | 38% | 30% | 33% | 43% | 45% | 35% | 33% | 43% | 38% | 35% | ** | 44% | 26% | 41% | 34% |
| Not Sure | 9% | 7% | 12% | 14% | 8% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 9% | 10% | ** | 8% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 19% | ** | 3% | 15% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 15% | 5% | 16% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 5% | 10% | 4% | 10% | 5% | 11% | 10% | 20% | 12% | 4% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 14% | 11% | 7% | ** | 7% | 7% | 13% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Jacobs Voters | 100% | 54% | 46% | 18% | 25% | 30% | 27% | 43% | 57% | 70% | 3% | 20% | 6% | 18% | 61% | 20% | 3% | 17% | 37% | 25% | 16% | 19% | 37% | 41% | 18% | 82% | 62% | 13% | 23% | 18% | 61% | 21% | 73% | 10% | 32% | 58% | 19% | 32% | 50% | 25% | 75% | 63% | 37% | 41% | 55% | 4% | 28% | 25% | 41% | 59% |
 | And in the November election for President, if you were filling out your ballot right now who would you vote for? Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Joe Biden? Or some other candidate? |
| 534 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Donald Trump (R) | 30% | 32% | 28% | 12% | 30% | 36% | 43% | 21% | 40% | 30% | ** | 31% | 32% | 80% | 4% | 28% | 96% | 64% | 29% | 3% | 1% | 73% | 29% | 2% | 24% | 32% | 25% | 22% | 50% | 86% | 3% | 100% | 0% | 40% | 30% | 29% | 27% | 29% | 33% | 45% | 26% | 38% | 21% | 23% | 35% | ** | 36% | 33% | 26% | 34% |
| Joe Biden (D) | 61% | 59% | 64% | 75% | 64% | 52% | 54% | 69% | 53% | 62% | ** | 60% | 52% | 11% | 94% | 54% | 2% | 26% | 61% | 91% | 97% | 19% | 61% | 93% | 58% | 62% | 66% | 72% | 41% | 9% | 94% | 0% | 100% | 53% | 61% | 63% | 62% | 63% | 59% | 45% | 65% | 52% | 72% | 72% | 54% | ** | 52% | 56% | 62% | 61% |
| Some Other Candidate | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 5% | ** | 2% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 7% | 0% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 5% | ** | 6% | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Undecided | 5% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 2% | 7% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 3% | ** | 7% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 11% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 6% | ** | 6% | 6% | 6% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 26% | 25% | 26% | 23% | 51% | 49% | 65% | 2% | 27% | 7% | 27% | 49% | 22% | 7% | 18% | 36% | 24% | 12% | 26% | 36% | 35% | 21% | 79% | 60% | 14% | 23% | 31% | 51% | 30% | 61% | 10% | 35% | 55% | 21% | 36% | 44% | 24% | 76% | 56% | 44% | 43% | 54% | 3% | 26% | 26% | 49% | 51% |