| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25666 |
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92% of Biden voters stick with Democrat Cunningham. 86% of Trump voters stick with Republican Tillis. That tiny difference may be enough to flip red seat blue. Men, Middle-Aged Voters & High-School Educated North Carolinians Move To Incumbent Republican Tillis in US Senate Race's Final Furlong, But Challenger Cunningham Still Holds Slight Advantage and Is Favored to Flip Seat to Democrats; Will McConnell or Schumer Rule the Roost? In a US Senate contest with nationwide implications, incumbent 1st-term Republican Thom Tillis appears to make up ground against Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham in the campaign's home stretch, but Cunningham continues to have a slight edge, even if no momentum, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for WRAL-TV in Raleigh. The contest at this hour, 6 days till votes are counted, shows Cunningham at 48%, Tillis at 45%, within the survey's wiggle room, but just large enough of a separation that Tillis remains the underdog and any Tillis win next week should be characterized as a come-from behind upset. The contest is a study in contrasts: There is zero movement among Republicans; they are locked in for Tillis. There is zero movement among Democrats; they are locked in for Cunningham. But there is movement among independents, where Cunningham today has the same 45% support level he had in SurveyUSA's 1st pre-election tracking poll 6 weeks ago, but where Tillis' support has increased from 29% in September to 40% today. Among voters age 35 to 49, Tillis had trailed by 8 points and 14 points in 2 previous polls, but today rebounds and has a nominal 2-point advantage over Cunningham. Among voters age 50 to 64, Tillis had trailed by 4 and 7 points in 2 previous polls but today rebounds and has a 4-point advantage over Cunningham. Affluent voters break sharply for Tillis in the final week; he leads today by 20 points among the wealthiest Tarheels. Cunningham is losing support among high school educated voters and voters with a 4-year college degree. But among the middle group, who have taken a few college courses but do not yet have a degree, Tillis is flat and Cunningham appears to maintain a 10-point advantage. Among men, Tillis leads by 8 today, which is 10 points better than Tillis fared in an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago. Among women, Cunningham is flat but Tillis has gone from 30% support in September to 40% support today. If Tillis ekes out a win at the wire, it is possible he will save the US Senate majority for Republican Leader Mitch McConnell. If Cunningham flips the seat, North Carolina may provide current Minority Leader Charles Schumer the 50th seat he needs to be Majority Leader (should Joseph R. Biden be elected President). Prior to SurveyUSA's penultimate poll, Cunningham acknowledged and subsequently apologized for sexual contact outside of his marriage. Prior to today's poll, Cunningham refused to answer reporters' questions about whether this sexting romp was his 1st? Or one of many? Though 51% of likely voters (including 71% of Democrats) say Cunningham's silence did not make a difference in how they vote, 44% of voters said Cunningham's silence made them less likely to vote for him, including 31% who said the refusal to answer reporters' questions made them "much less likely" to vote for Cunningham. About: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults statewide 10/23/2020 through 10/26/2020. Of the adults, 691 are registered to vote in North Carolina. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 627 voters likely to return a ballot on or before the 11/03/2020 deadline. This research was conducted online among a representative cross section of North Carolina adults. Sample selected at random by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Adult respondents were weighted to the most recent US Census targets for North Carolina for gender, age, race, education, and home-ownership. 43% of voters tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot. Among this group, Democrat Cunningham leads by 13 points, 55% to 42%. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of North Carolina? |
| 800 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2020 US Senate V | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Class | Paycheck | Religion | Lived | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Military HH | Gun HH | Evangelical | K-12 Parent | Single Parent | LGBTQ HH | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | Already | Trump (R | Biden (D | Tillis ( | Cunningh | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Poor | Working | Middle C | Upper-Mi | Falling | Just Get | Making E | Setting | Prosperi | Protesta | Catholic | Other | No Organ | <15 Year | 15-30 Yr | >30 Year | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | |
| Yes | 86% | 86% | 87% | 73% | 91% | 93% | 93% | 81% | 93% | 90% | 85% | 69% | 84% | 94% | 92% | 79% | 96% | 94% | 85% | 86% | 90% | 95% | 85% | 88% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 96% | 96% | 77% | 88% | 95% | 81% | 89% | 92% | 84% | 86% | 91% | 84% | 83% | 84% | 88% | 90% | 80% | 93% | 87% | 83% | 80% | 82% | 86% | 93% | 91% | 78% | 84% | 88% | 86% | 90% | 86% | 88% | 86% | 92% | 84% | 94% | 84% | 89% | 86% | 80% | 87% | 84% | 87% | 83% | 87% | 89% | 87% |
| No | 11% | 12% | 11% | 22% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 15% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 7% | 18% | 4% | 5% | 14% | 14% | 9% | 4% | 14% | 12% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3% | 4% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 15% | 9% | 8% | 13% | 12% | 8% | 16% | 13% | 14% | 10% | 8% | 14% | 6% | 7% | 15% | 18% | 15% | 11% | 6% | 8% | 18% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 13% | 6% | 13% | 9% | 12% | 16% | 11% | 16% | 11% | 15% | 9% | 9% | 10% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 48% | 52% | 30% | 25% | 26% | 20% | 54% | 46% | 63% | 20% | 10% | 7% | 34% | 35% | 27% | 15% | 18% | 40% | 11% | 8% | 34% | 40% | 19% | 10% | 42% | 39% | 48% | 48% | 45% | 48% | 39% | 33% | 34% | 34% | 31% | 43% | 36% | 21% | 9% | 37% | 40% | 12% | 10% | 28% | 28% | 26% | 8% | 38% | 11% | 23% | 28% | 31% | 29% | 38% | 65% | 35% | 21% | 40% | 39% | 17% | 22% | 19% | 81% | 33% | 67% | 24% | 76% | 30% | 68% | 12% | 88% | 7% | 93% | 37% | 19% | 28% | 17% |
| 2 | North Carolina will elect a President, a Governor, and a United States Senator in November. Not everyone has a chance to vote in an election. Which best describes you? |
| 691 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2020 US Senate V | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Class | Paycheck | Religion | Lived | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Military HH | Gun HH | Evangelical | K-12 Parent | Single Parent | LGBTQ HH | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | Already | Trump (R | Biden (D | Tillis ( | Cunningh | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Poor | Working | Middle C | Upper-Mi | Falling | Just Get | Making E | Setting | Prosperi | Protesta | Catholic | Other | No Organ | <15 Year | 15-30 Yr | >30 Year | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | |
| Not Interested | 2% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | 1% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 8% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 0% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| Not Sure If Time | 6% | 5% | 7% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 9% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 11% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 4% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | 3% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 12% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 7% | 5% | 11% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 3% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 7% |
| Almost Certain | 10% | 10% | 9% | 17% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 13% | 5% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 3% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 11% | 10% | 4% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 10% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 18% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 21% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 16% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 13% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 6% | 11% | 15% | 7% | 16% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 12% |
| 100% Certain | 42% | 47% | 38% | 47% | 52% | 43% | 23% | 50% | 34% | 41% | 39% | 47% | 56% | 52% | 36% | 37% | 38% | 57% | 42% | 35% | 38% | 48% | 42% | 36% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 53% | 41% | 48% | 42% | 51% | 36% | 43% | 45% | 38% | 42% | 39% | 47% | 42% | 48% | 39% | 35% | 43% | 47% | 40% | 40% | 33% | 43% | 45% | 50% | 32% | 40% | 47% | 40% | 42% | 43% | 46% | 40% | 42% | 43% | 38% | 40% | 43% | 48% | 39% | 48% | 40% | 51% | 38% | 33% | 43% | 47% | 42% | 44% | 34% | 49% | 36% |
| Already Returned Ballot | 39% | 34% | 44% | 18% | 29% | 45% | 69% | 24% | 55% | 41% | 39% | 30% | 30% | 35% | 47% | 36% | 48% | 27% | 35% | 52% | 56% | 37% | 35% | 53% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 36% | 51% | 41% | 49% | 36% | 48% | 36% | 36% | 45% | 38% | 41% | 38% | 25% | 36% | 43% | 44% | 21% | 34% | 42% | 45% | 50% | 47% | 26% | 32% | 39% | 42% | 31% | 44% | 43% | 31% | 33% | 42% | 39% | 42% | 42% | 45% | 38% | 36% | 41% | 43% | 38% | 21% | 47% | 38% | 39% | 32% | 40% | 38% | 49% | 32% | 43% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 25% | 26% | 28% | 21% | 51% | 49% | 66% | 20% | 8% | 7% | 37% | 38% | 24% | 17% | 20% | 39% | 11% | 8% | 37% | 39% | 20% | 10% | 42% | 39% | 48% | 48% | 45% | 48% | 44% | 36% | 31% | 35% | 34% | 40% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 37% | 42% | 11% | 10% | 27% | 28% | 27% | 8% | 41% | 11% | 22% | 26% | 29% | 29% | 41% | 69% | 31% | 20% | 40% | 39% | 18% | 22% | 19% | 81% | 35% | 65% | 26% | 74% | 31% | 68% | 11% | 89% | 7% | 93% | 35% | 19% | 29% | 17% |
 | In the election for United States Senator from North Carolina, how do you vote? Republican Thom Tillis? Democrat Cal Cunningham? Or some other candidate? (candidate names rotated) |
| 627 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2020 US Senate V | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Class | Paycheck | Religion | Lived | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Military HH | Gun HH | Evangelical | K-12 Parent | Single Parent | LGBTQ HH | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | Already | Trump (R | Biden (D | Tillis ( | Cunningh | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Poor | Working | Middle C | Upper-Mi | Falling | Just Get | Making E | Setting | Prosperi | Protesta | Catholic | Other | No Organ | <15 Year | 15-30 Yr | >30 Year | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | |
| Thom Tillis (R) | 45% | 51% | 40% | 40% | 46% | 48% | 45% | 43% | 47% | 57% | 4% | 38% | 54% | 88% | 3% | 40% | 82% | 75% | 30% | 3% | 10% | 79% | 30% | 6% | 48% | 47% | 42% | 86% | 4% | 100% | 0% | 84% | 4% | 52% | 35% | 48% | 42% | 40% | 58% | 23% | 47% | 45% | 60% | 39% | 32% | 46% | 56% | 56% | 52% | 49% | 36% | 39% | 43% | 36% | 52% | 52% | 28% | 40% | 37% | 56% | 38% | 36% | 42% | 46% | 58% | 38% | 53% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 35% | 46% | 27% | 46% | 52% | 45% | 34% | 50% |
| Cal Cunningham (D) | 48% | 43% | 52% | 54% | 44% | 44% | 51% | 49% | 47% | 36% | 89% | 61% | 33% | 5% | 95% | 45% | 11% | 17% | 61% | 94% | 86% | 14% | 61% | 91% | 39% | 43% | 55% | 6% | 92% | 0% | 100% | 9% | 92% | 42% | 55% | 47% | 52% | 50% | 38% | 66% | 48% | 47% | 36% | 49% | 63% | 47% | 35% | 41% | 42% | 40% | 56% | 55% | 51% | 56% | 40% | 41% | 63% | 52% | 56% | 38% | 54% | 57% | 49% | 48% | 35% | 55% | 41% | 50% | 40% | 52% | 58% | 47% | 63% | 47% | 41% | 47% | 59% | 44% |
| Some Other Candidate | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
| Undecided | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 6% | 8% | 0% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 26% | 29% | 22% | 49% | 51% | 67% | 19% | 7% | 7% | 40% | 38% | 22% | 18% | 21% | 38% | 12% | 9% | 39% | 38% | 20% | 10% | 46% | 43% | 48% | 48% | 45% | 48% | 46% | 37% | 30% | 34% | 35% | 41% | 36% | 23% | 8% | 37% | 43% | 11% | 9% | 27% | 28% | 28% | 7% | 44% | 10% | 22% | 24% | 29% | 28% | 42% | 70% | 30% | 20% | 41% | 39% | 19% | 22% | 19% | 81% | 36% | 64% | 28% | 72% | 30% | 69% | 11% | 89% | 6% | 94% | 35% | 19% | 29% | 17% |
| 4 | At a news conference, US Senate Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham refused to answer questions about whether he had multiple extra-marital affairs. Does this make you much less likely to support Cunningham? Somewhat less likely? Or doesn't affect you one way or the other? |
| 627 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2020 US Senate V | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Class | Paycheck | Religion | Lived | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Military HH | Gun HH | Evangelical | K-12 Parent | Single Parent | LGBTQ HH | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | Already | Trump (R | Biden (D | Tillis ( | Cunningh | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Poor | Working | Middle C | Upper-Mi | Falling | Just Get | Making E | Setting | Prosperi | Protesta | Catholic | Other | No Organ | <15 Year | 15-30 Yr | >30 Year | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | |
| Much Less Likely To Support | 31% | 34% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 32% | 39% | 27% | 35% | 40% | 9% | 8% | 30% | 54% | 10% | 28% | 60% | 49% | 19% | 13% | 7% | 54% | 19% | 10% | 31% | 34% | 29% | 52% | 9% | 57% | 7% | 53% | 8% | 36% | 25% | 34% | 22% | 34% | 43% | 27% | 31% | 32% | 36% | 35% | 27% | 23% | 43% | 29% | 37% | 40% | 27% | 21% | 29% | 26% | 36% | 37% | 19% | 29% | 26% | 38% | 25% | 27% | 36% | 30% | 38% | 27% | 38% | 28% | 31% | 31% | 18% | 33% | 18% | 32% | 30% | 29% | 30% | 39% |
| Somewhat Less Likely To Support | 13% | 13% | 13% | 19% | 13% | 13% | 9% | 16% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 39% | 12% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 11% | 31% | 16% | 6% | 12% | 15% | 11% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 15% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 13% | 15% | 11% | 18% | 12% | 2% | 13% | 16% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 18% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 12% | 9% | 18% | 20% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 17% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 17% | 11% |
| Doesn't Affect You | 51% | 50% | 52% | 49% | 53% | 52% | 52% | 51% | 52% | 45% | 75% | 68% | 31% | 31% | 71% | 54% | 27% | 32% | 60% | 75% | 77% | 30% | 60% | 76% | 34% | 44% | 63% | 32% | 71% | 29% | 75% | 31% | 74% | 48% | 58% | 48% | 61% | 46% | 43% | 62% | 53% | 50% | 45% | 42% | 58% | 55% | 43% | 57% | 47% | 41% | 52% | 63% | 57% | 50% | 49% | 47% | 61% | 53% | 54% | 48% | 62% | 47% | 43% | 54% | 47% | 54% | 46% | 54% | 49% | 53% | 60% | 50% | 62% | 51% | 51% | 59% | 49% | 47% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 2% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 9% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 26% | 29% | 22% | 49% | 51% | 67% | 19% | 7% | 7% | 40% | 38% | 22% | 18% | 21% | 38% | 12% | 9% | 39% | 38% | 20% | 10% | 46% | 43% | 48% | 48% | 45% | 48% | 46% | 37% | 30% | 34% | 35% | 41% | 36% | 23% | 8% | 37% | 43% | 11% | 9% | 27% | 28% | 28% | 7% | 44% | 10% | 22% | 24% | 29% | 28% | 42% | 70% | 30% | 20% | 41% | 39% | 19% | 22% | 19% | 81% | 36% | 64% | 28% | 72% | 30% | 69% | 11% | 89% | 6% | 94% | 35% | 19% | 29% | 17% |
 | How are you planning to vote in the November 3rd election? |
| 627 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2020 US Senate V | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Class | Paycheck | Religion | Lived | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Military HH | Gun HH | Evangelical | K-12 Parent | Single Parent | LGBTQ HH | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | Already | Trump (R | Biden (D | Tillis ( | Cunningh | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Poor | Working | Middle C | Upper-Mi | Falling | Just Get | Making E | Setting | Prosperi | Protesta | Catholic | Other | No Organ | <15 Year | 15-30 Yr | >30 Year | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | |
| Mail-in Or Absentee Ballot | 23% | 19% | 27% | 25% | 19% | 26% | 22% | 22% | 24% | 25% | 17% | 29% | 18% | 18% | 28% | 24% | 20% | 18% | 23% | 35% | 30% | 19% | 23% | 33% | 14% | 12% | 37% | 18% | 29% | 19% | 28% | 20% | 26% | 23% | 17% | 30% | 25% | 21% | 23% | 35% | 19% | 21% | 34% | 26% | 23% | 21% | 22% | 35% | 21% | 25% | 17% | 33% | 28% | 24% | 20% | 23% | 23% | 17% | 27% | 22% | 20% | 33% | 21% | 24% | 19% | 25% | 19% | 25% | 18% | 25% | 29% | 22% | 34% | 22% | 26% | 24% | 21% | 20% |
| In Person At Early One-stop Voting Center | 53% | 53% | 52% | 44% | 54% | 52% | 61% | 50% | 56% | 50% | 64% | 51% | 50% | 51% | 56% | 51% | 55% | 51% | 52% | 53% | 50% | 53% | 52% | 52% | 47% | 48% | 59% | 50% | 56% | 53% | 55% | 50% | 59% | 52% | 56% | 51% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 32% | 55% | 58% | 46% | 50% | 54% | 57% | 51% | 45% | 57% | 47% | 57% | 44% | 50% | 49% | 59% | 53% | 52% | 62% | 51% | 50% | 60% | 43% | 54% | 53% | 51% | 54% | 60% | 50% | 51% | 54% | 47% | 54% | 35% | 54% | 50% | 52% | 54% | 58% |
| In Person On Election Day | 22% | 27% | 18% | 30% | 25% | 19% | 17% | 27% | 18% | 25% | 18% | 16% | 19% | 31% | 14% | 21% | 24% | 30% | 22% | 13% | 20% | 27% | 22% | 16% | 34% | 38% | 3% | 32% | 14% | 28% | 14% | 30% | 15% | 24% | 25% | 18% | 21% | 23% | 25% | 32% | 23% | 20% | 20% | 24% | 22% | 19% | 26% | 20% | 22% | 28% | 21% | 22% | 22% | 23% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 20% | 20% | 27% | 20% | 20% | 21% | 23% | 27% | 20% | 21% | 23% | 29% | 19% | 20% | 23% | 31% | 22% | 23% | 24% | 21% | 22% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 13% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 26% | 29% | 22% | 49% | 51% | 67% | 19% | 7% | 7% | 40% | 38% | 22% | 18% | 21% | 38% | 12% | 9% | 39% | 38% | 20% | 10% | 46% | 43% | 48% | 48% | 45% | 48% | 46% | 37% | 30% | 34% | 35% | 41% | 36% | 23% | 8% | 37% | 43% | 11% | 9% | 27% | 28% | 28% | 7% | 44% | 10% | 22% | 24% | 29% | 28% | 42% | 70% | 30% | 20% | 41% | 39% | 19% | 22% | 19% | 81% | 36% | 64% | 28% | 72% | 30% | 69% | 11% | 89% | 6% | 94% | 35% | 19% | 29% | 17% |
| 6 | How much confidence do you have in the overall voting process in North Carolina? |
| 627 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2020 US Senate V | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Class | Paycheck | Religion | Lived | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Military HH | Gun HH | Evangelical | K-12 Parent | Single Parent | LGBTQ HH | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | Already | Trump (R | Biden (D | Tillis ( | Cunningh | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Poor | Working | Middle C | Upper-Mi | Falling | Just Get | Making E | Setting | Prosperi | Protesta | Catholic | Other | No Organ | <15 Year | 15-30 Yr | >30 Year | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | |
| Full Confidence | 43% | 47% | 39% | 44% | 42% | 44% | 41% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 35% | 49% | 55% | 44% | 45% | 37% | 47% | 39% | 44% | 48% | 36% | 42% | 44% | 43% | 25% | 44% | 46% | 41% | 47% | 41% | 48% | 43% | 48% | 38% | 38% | 52% | 43% | 42% | 45% | 46% | 39% | 44% | 48% | 28% | 46% | 44% | 41% | 56% | 42% | 38% | 46% | 44% | 42% | 48% | 40% | 44% | 40% | 40% | 38% | 50% | 41% | 35% | 47% | 42% | 40% | 45% | 34% | 47% | 46% | 41% | 39% | 43% | 23% | 44% | 48% | 34% | 42% | 43% |
| Some Confidence | 45% | 42% | 49% | 42% | 41% | 45% | 53% | 41% | 49% | 46% | 53% | 38% | 26% | 45% | 45% | 47% | 43% | 49% | 43% | 47% | 55% | 46% | 43% | 50% | 48% | 44% | 46% | 47% | 43% | 45% | 42% | 46% | 43% | 47% | 49% | 40% | 41% | 48% | 47% | 40% | 47% | 45% | 46% | 55% | 41% | 43% | 51% | 38% | 48% | 51% | 47% | 35% | 46% | 42% | 46% | 44% | 48% | 48% | 50% | 38% | 47% | 52% | 46% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 54% | 42% | 38% | 49% | 45% | 45% | 50% | 45% | 40% | 52% | 46% | 46% |
| Little Confidence | 10% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 14% | 10% | 6% | 12% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 5% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 22% | 11% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 13% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 13% | 11% | 6% | 14% | 9% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 10% | 4% | 12% | 11% | 13% | 7% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 5% | 18% | 10% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 6% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 15% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 28% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 10% |
| No Confidence | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 26% | 29% | 22% | 49% | 51% | 67% | 19% | 7% | 7% | 40% | 38% | 22% | 18% | 21% | 38% | 12% | 9% | 39% | 38% | 20% | 10% | 46% | 43% | 48% | 48% | 45% | 48% | 46% | 37% | 30% | 34% | 35% | 41% | 36% | 23% | 8% | 37% | 43% | 11% | 9% | 27% | 28% | 28% | 7% | 44% | 10% | 22% | 24% | 29% | 28% | 42% | 70% | 30% | 20% | 41% | 39% | 19% | 22% | 19% | 81% | 36% | 64% | 28% | 72% | 30% | 69% | 11% | 89% | 6% | 94% | 35% | 19% | 29% | 17% |