| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #23204 |
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Jump Ball in Khanna-Honda Re-Match in California's 17th Congressional District: As early voting in California begins, Incumbent Democrat Mike Honda and Democratic challenger Ro Khanna are in a fight for every vote, exactly as they were in the June 2016 California primary, when Khanna received 2,200 votes more than Honda, and exactly as the 2 were when they faced-off in the November 2014 general election, when Honda received 4,700 more votes than Khanna. Today, in SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for KPIX-TV in San Francisco, Khanna edges Honda 38% to 37%. The results are well within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error; Khanna's nominal 1-point advantage may or may not be meaningful; any outcome is possible when votes are counted in 30 days, given that 26% of likely voters today tell SurveyUSA they are undecided at this hour, and especially given historic turbulence at the top of the ticket in the race for President. In California's "Top 2" primary system, it is possible for 2 Democrats to face each other in a general election. That is true here, in a congressional district that represents Silicon Valley: no Republican is on the ballot. However, support for the 2 candidates follows party lines. Honda leads by 15 points among those who tell SurveyUSA they consider themselves Democrats. Khanna leads by 22 points among those who tell SurveyUSA they consider themselves Republicans. If Republican turnout is low in the 11/08/16 election, because of conservative reluctance to show-up for Donald Trump, that benefits Honda. Khanna leads by 7 points among the district's white voters. Honda leads narrowly among the district's Asian voters. A larger turnout by Asian-Americans helps Honda. Honda leads among the youngest --- and often least reliable --- voters. Khanna leads among Baby Boomers. Honda leads among those who started but did not finish college. Khanna leads among those with a 4-year college degree. Affluent voters back Khanna. Lower-income and middle-income voters back Honda. Methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from California's 17th U.S. Congressional District 10/04/16 through 10/07/16, using Registration-Based Sampling (aka: voter-list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 550 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote on or before the 11/08/16 deadline. This research was conducted 100% by telephone: Respondents reachable on their home telephone (68% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (32% of likely voters) were contacted by live operators, who qualified the respondent, secured their cooperation, interviewed the respondent, entered their responses, and remained on the line until the interview was over. Honda is running for his 9th term in Congress. |
| 1 | If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from California's 17th Congressional District were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Democrat Mike Honda? Or Democrat Ro Khanna? |
| 550 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Republic | Independ | Democrat | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Mike Honda (D) | 37% | 36% | 37% | 35% | 33% | 36% | 42% | 34% | 39% | 39% | ** | 33% | 35% | 19% | 31% | 29% | 25% | 42% | 40% | 56% | 25% | 31% | 47% | 19% | 36% | 33% | 47% | 40% | 34% | 47% | 32% | 37% | 47% | 32% | 32% | 39% |
| Ro Khanna (D) | 38% | 39% | 36% | 23% | 37% | 45% | 44% | 30% | 45% | 46% | ** | 32% | 33% | 51% | 42% | 53% | 42% | 46% | 34% | 29% | 47% | 46% | 32% | 42% | 37% | 38% | 39% | 40% | 32% | 30% | 42% | 32% | 32% | 45% | 20% | 46% |
| Undecided | 26% | 24% | 27% | 42% | 30% | 19% | 14% | 36% | 17% | 15% | ** | 35% | 32% | 29% | 27% | 18% | 33% | 12% | 27% | 14% | 28% | 24% | 21% | 39% | 26% | 29% | 14% | 20% | 34% | 23% | 26% | 31% | 20% | 23% | 48% | 15% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 23% | 22% | 30% | 25% | 45% | 55% | 40% | 3% | 17% | 40% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 17% | 9% | 27% | 20% | 15% | 33% | 47% | 8% | 13% | 38% | 21% | 13% | 10% | 29% | 61% | 12% | 29% | 60% | 32% | 68% |