Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13246
FL Democratic Primary -- Clinton's Support Among Women Drops Below 50% for 1st Time; SE FL Re-Discovers Obama: In a Democratic Primary in Florida today, 01/25/08, 4 days to an election that no Democrat may campaign for, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 47% to 30%, according to this 8th SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Mobile. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 5 days ago, Clinton is down 9 points, Obama is up 7 points. Clinton had led by 33 at the beginning of the week, leads by 17 at the end of the week. Clinton had 65% of female votes two weeks ago, 60% earlier this week, 48% today. Among voters under age 50, where Clinton had led by 30 points 2 weeks ago, Obama today leads by 7, a 37-point swing to Obama. In SE FL, Clinton led by 44 points earlier this week, now by 6, a 38-point swing to Obama in 4 days. In SW and Central FL, Clinton leads by 32 points. In NW and NE FL, Clinton and Obama are effectively tied. Among those who say the Economy is most important, Clinton leads Obama 5:3. Among those who say Iraq is most important, Clinton and Obama tie.
Filtering / Caveats: 2,100 state of Florida adults were interviewed 01/23/08 and 01/24/08. All interviews completed after 01/21/08 Democratic candidate debate in which Clinton and Obama sparred ferociously. Interviews conducted during fierce battle among Democrats in South Carolina, whose primary is this Saturday 01/26/08. Results of the South Carolina primary may well buffet what happens in Florida, even though Democratic candidates have agreed not to campaign in Florida. Because, at present at least, no delegates won in Florida will be seated at the Democratic National Convention, because no candidate has campaigned in Florida, and because the Primary is largely symbolic, it is unclear who will actually turn-out. Further complicating the polling challenge, there is a constitutional amendment on the ballot on Tuesday which would change Florida's property tax laws. All registered voters, including unaffiliated voters, may vote on the ballot measure, though only registered Democrats may vote in the "closed" Primary. Of the 1,795 registered voters surveyed, 522 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted in the Democratic Primary, or to be certain to vote on or before Tuesday. Of those who have already voted, Clinton leads by 24.
If the Democratic Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for...(names rotated) Hillary Clinton? John Edwards? Barack Obama? Or some other Democrat?
522 Likely And Actual VotersAllGenderEarly VotingRaceIdeologyRegionAge<50 / 50+Attend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next President
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemaleActual VLikely VWhiteBlackHispanicOtherConservaModerateLiberalNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigrat
Not Sure7%2%11%2%9%5%15%6%**12%8%4%9%8%5%7%8%23%6%6%2%12%4%12%7%3%7%7%16%3%3%**7%5%********
Composition of Likely And Actual Voters100%45%55%28%72%67%20%11%1%14%35%34%7%9%28%17%40%15%28%31%27%42%58%35%31%33%26%71%17%73%42%4%18%15%3%4%5%3%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.