Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13218
1ST LOOK AT FLORIDA GOP PRIMARY AFTER SC GOP PRIMARY: McCain Steady, Rudy & Huckabee Down -- In a Florida Republican Primary today, 01/21/08, 8 days to the vote, John McCain holds his ground following his narrow win in South Carolina, but two of his opponents falter ever-so-slightly, so the net result is a 5-point advantage for McCain, within the survey's margin of sampling error, but just large enough to remark upon. In this 7th Florida tracking poll conducted by SurveyUSA exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Mobile, it's McCain 25%, Rudolph Giuliani 20%, Mitt Romney 19%, Mike Huckabee 14%, Fred Thompson and Ron Paul at 7%. All interviews were conducted after results of the 01/19/08 South Carolina Primary were known. In an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 week ago, McCain was at 25%, unchanged. Giuliani has dropped from 23% to 20%, where he is effectively tied with Romney, who went from 18% to 19% following Romney's strong showing in Nevada. Huckabee fell from 18% a week ago to 14% today. Among Conservatives, Giuliani and Romney are tied today, up slightly from a week ago. McCain and Huckabee down slightly. Among Moderates, McCain has twice the votes of any other candidate. Among voters who say the Economy is the issue the next President should focus on ahead of all others, McCain is 1st, 10 atop Romney. Among voters who say Terrorism is most important, Giuliani is 1st, 8 atop McCain. Giuliani's entire campaign is predicated on a Giuliani win in Florida and the "big states" that follow. Giuliani led in SurveyUSA tracking polls released 11/06/07, 11/29/07, 12/04/07 and 12/17/07. He has not led since. Florida is the first state where all 4 of Giuliani, McCain, Romney and Huckabee are actively campaigning; one or more of the four has bypassed previous primaries and caucuses.
Filtering / Early Voting: 2,050 Florida adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 01/20/08. Of them, 1,781 were registered to vote. Of them, 518 had already voted in early voting, or were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Primary Day. Among those who have already voted, McCain has 31%, Giuliani has 25%, within the margin of sampling error for that sub-group. Surveys conducted with a one-day field period may be more volatile than surveys conducted across multiple days.
If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for ...(names rotated) Rudy Giuliani? Mike Huckabee? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Fred Thompson? Ron Paul? Or some other Republican?
518 Likely And Actual VotersAllGenderEarly VotingRaceIdeologyRegionAge<50 / 50+Attend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next President
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemaleActual VLikely VWhiteBlackHispanicOtherConservaModerateLiberalNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigrat
Not Sure7%6%7%1%8%6%**1%**3%5%12%4%8%10%5%2%15%5%4%5%9%4%7%9%4%6%8%15%3%5%**6%13%3%****7%
Composition of Likely And Actual Voters100%55%45%20%80%85%2%11%2%59%26%6%9%11%35%21%25%18%27%27%29%45%55%53%25%22%59%38%35%64%40%3%7%7%21%3%1%14%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.