Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13338
 
CAUTION: this poll is by design not conducted to SurveyUSA election poll standards and does not attempt to forecast an outcome in the Washington state party caucuses.
 
On Eve of WA Democratic Caucus, Obama & Clinton Even Among Registered Voters; Obama Favored Among Caucus Goers: 24 hours till the Washington Democrats caucus and choose convention delegates, support for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is approximately even among registered voters, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV. But: among those who say they will caucus tomorrow, Obama appears to have an advantage. On the Republican side, John McCain is preferred 2:1 over Mike Huckabee, among the state's registered voters and among GOP caucus goers.
 
Caveats: Unique to Washington state, Democrats choose all delegates, except super-delegates, at Democratic caucuses this Saturday 02/09/08. Republicans choose half their delegates in 02/09/08 caucuses, the other half in the party's Tuesday 02/19/08 Primary. This means the Democratic caucus has great significance, especially given how closely contested the fight for Democratic delegates is nationwide. But the WA state Democratic primary on 02/19/08 has no significance, other than as a source of pride for the winner. The Republican 02/09/08 caucus and Republican 02/19/08 primary, given that John McCain is almost certainly the party's nominee, have uncertain, if any, significance. Because of these contrivances, and because there is zero history in Washington state as to how many voters will caucus, SurveyUSA did not construct this as a traditional pre-primary election poll. Rather: this poll asked adults, A) "Are you registered in Washington state?" Then, asked registered voters, B) "Are you a Republican? Democrat? Independent? Or unaffiliated?" Then, asked Unaffiliated voters, C) "Do you identify more with Republicans or Democrats?" Democrats and Democrat-identifying unaffiliated voters were asked, D) "Which of the remaining Democratic candidates for President do you most support?" Republicans and Republican-identifying unaffiliated voters were asked, E) "Which of the remaining Republican candidates for President do you most support?" The answers to those questions are the high-level numbers reported here. Of the registered voters, Democrats are more likely to caucus than Republicans. Among those who say they will caucus as Democrats, Obama has a 2:1 advantage over Clinton, 63% to 33%. Those numbers show up in the crosstab for question #2. The numbers should be interpreted with caution.
 
Filtering: 1,250 state of WA adults were interviewed 02/07/08 and 02/08/08. Of them, 1063 were registered to vote. Of them, 598 identify themselves as Democrats, 433 identify themselves as Republicans. Of the Democrats, 234 said they were likely to caucus as Democrats. Of the Republicans, 108 said they were likely to caucus as Republicans.
 
Which of the remaining Republican candidates for President do you most support? (names rotated) Mike Huckabee? John McCain? Or, Ron Paul?
433 Registered Voters Identifying As RepublicansAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradCaucus?Vote in Primary?Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoYesNoYesNoWestern Eastern Metro Se
Huckabee25%24%28%29%25%30%18%27%24%26%**17%27%25%****30%22%**25%26%22%26%25%31%23%33%22%
McCain54%58%49%39%56%55%64%50%60%55%**53%49%54%****50%64%**56%52%52%56%55%45%57%44%59%
Paul11%13%7%17%9%11%6%12%9%9%**25%14%11%****11%9%**9%13%17%9%11%10%11%13%9%
Undecided10%5%15%15%10%3%11%12%7%10%**5%10%10%****9%5%**10%10%9%9%9%14%9%10%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters Identifying As Republicans100%55%45%22%36%23%20%57%43%84%2%6%8%100%0%0%56%33%3%50%50%25%72%90%9%28%28%44%
 
Which of the remaining Democratic candidates for President do you most support? (names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Or, Barack Obama?
598 Registered Voters Identifying As DemocratsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradCaucus?Vote in Primary?Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoYesNoYesNoWestern Eastern Metro Se
Clinton45%38%50%32%42%49%59%38%53%47%****43%**45%**45%43%40%37%52%33%53%45%37%50%42%43%
Obama50%58%43%62%53%45%35%57%41%47%****51%**50%**48%52%55%57%43%63%41%51%51%44%52%52%
Undecided6%5%7%7%5%6%6%6%6%7%****5%**6%**8%5%5%7%5%4%7%4%13%6%6%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters Identifying As Democrats100%44%56%23%31%28%18%54%46%82%4%4%10%0%100%0%7%40%36%49%51%39%57%82%16%25%17%58%
 
Washington's Democratic and Republican parties will hold precinct CAUCUSES on Saturday, February 9. Will you attend your precinct caucus?
1032 Registered Voters With a Party PreferenceAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradCaucus?Vote in Primary?Region
Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoYesNoYesNoWestern Eastern Metro Se
Yes33%36%31%37%33%35%26%35%31%29%****52%25%39%**25%32%48%39%28%100%0%36%21%34%27%36%
No64%62%65%56%64%62%74%61%67%68%****41%72%57%**72%64%50%58%69%0%100%62%75%63%71%61%
Not Sure3%2%4%7%2%2%1%4%2%3%****8%3%4%**3%5%2%4%3%0%0%3%3%3%3%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters With a Party Preference100%48%52%23%33%26%19%56%44%83%3%5%9%42%58%0%27%37%22%50%50%33%64%85%13%26%21%52%
 
Separately, Washington's Democratic and Republican parties will hold PRIMARIES on Tuesday, February 19. Will you vote in the primary?
1032 Registered Voters With a Party PreferenceAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradCaucus?Vote in Primary?Region
Credibility Interval: ± 2.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoYesNoYesNoWestern Eastern Metro Se
Yes85%87%84%77%86%88%90%83%89%85%****82%90%82%**89%84%84%87%84%91%83%100%0%89%83%84%
No13%10%15%19%12%11%9%15%10%13%****16%9%16%**10%14%16%12%14%8%15%0%100%8%13%15%
Not Sure2%2%1%4%1%1%1%2%1%1%****2%1%2%**1%2%0%1%2%0%2%0%0%3%4%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters With a Party Preference100%48%52%23%33%26%19%56%44%83%3%5%9%42%58%0%27%37%22%50%50%33%64%85%13%26%21%52%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.