Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10622
Anything Possible in Indiana 9: In an election for U.S. House of Representatives in Indiana's 9th Congressional District today, 11/3/06, incumbent Republican Mike Sodrel has momentum at the finish line, but it is unclear if this is enough to carry him to re-election, according to a poll of 538 likely voters conducted by SurveyUSA exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville. Sodrel gets 46% today, slightly ahead of but still within the margin of sampling error of Democrat challenger Baron Hill, who is at 44%. In 2 previous SurveyUSA WHAS-TV tracking polls, Hill had led, by 2 points in early October and then by 4 points in late October. At the wire, Sodrel appears to be consolidating support among males. Two weeks ago, Sodrel led by 2 among males. Today he leads by 12. 83% of Republicans vote Republican. 77% of Democrats vote Democrat. Independents split. Libertarian Eric Schansberg gets 5% in today's poll, which, in a contest this close, will make a difference. Because Schansberg's support is disproportionately Liberal, he appears to take more votes from the Democrat Hill than the Republican Sodrel. Turnout will decide the winner. Hill was elected to represent Indiana's 9th District in 1998, 2000, and 2002. Sodrel, who had lost to Hill 51-46 in 2002, captured the seat for the Republicans in 2004, defeating Hill by one-half of one percentage point.
Filtering: 1,000 adults from Indiana's 9th Congressional District were interviewed 10/31/06 through 11/2/06. Of them, 821 were registered to vote. Of them, 538 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Mike Sodrel? Democrat Baron Hill? Libertarian Eric Schansberg? Or some other candidate?
538 Likely VotersAllGenderAgePartyIdeologyEducationIncomeBush Job ApprovaGeneration *
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalNo ColleSome ColCollege Grad Sch< $40K$40K - $> $80KApproveDisapproGen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Sodrel (R)46%51%42%42%54%42%44%83%14%40%80%29%17%44%46%52%45%40%50%55%86%9%43%49%49%43%44%
Hill (D)44%39%49%40%38%49%51%13%77%41%14%62%69%46%45%37%47%43%47%39%9%78%34%38%44%49%51%
Schansberg (L)5%6%4%10%5%3%2%3%5%11%2%5%11%3%4%7%7%10%1%3%1%8%14%8%3%3%2%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%19%32%29%20%41%42%16%39%37%15%22%40%20%18%35%41%21%47%50%9%23%28%21%20%