Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20071 |
In Oregon: Marijuana Still Trails Narrowly; Sec'y of State Tilts Toward Democrat Brown; State Labor Commissioner Contest Too-Close-to-Call:
5 Days until votes are counted in Oregon, Democrat Kate Brown has a 48% to 40% advantage over Republican Knute Buehler in the contest for Secretary of State, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. Brown's lead comes from a 24-point gender gap: Buehler leads by 5 among men. Brown leads by 19 among women. Brown holds 81% of the Democratic base. Buehler holds 79% of the Republican base. Independents split. Buehler leads in rural Oregon. Brown leads in greater Portland. In the election for State Labor Commissioner, Bruce Starr and Brad Avakian are tightly bunched in a comparatively low-interest contest where 40% of likely voters are undecided heading into the campaign's final weekend. Starr gets 31% today, Avakian gets 29%. Starr is supported by the less educated. Avakian is supported by those with a 4-year college degree. Measure 80, which would de-criminalize marijuana, trails today 49% to 42%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, both "Yes" and "No" are up 6 points. No had led by 7. No still leads by 7. Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Oregon adults 10/28/12 through 10/30/12. Of the adults, 617 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 566 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before the 11/06/12 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. |
1 | If the election for Oregon Secretary of State were today, who would you vote for (candidate names rotated) ...? Republican Knute Buehler? Democrat Kate Brown? Or one of the other candidates? |
548 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | When Will You Vote? | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Already | Before E | ON Elect | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Portland | Rest of | |
Knute Buehler (R) | 40% | 48% | 34% | 36% | 40% | 41% | 45% | 38% | 43% | 37% | 42% | 40% | 43% | 27% | 79% | 11% | 41% | 83% | 36% | 79% | 37% | 6% | 41% | 41% | 39% | 34% | 45% | 43% | 36% | 49% |
Kate Brown (D) | 48% | 43% | 53% | 50% | 44% | 50% | 49% | 47% | 50% | 47% | 49% | 52% | 44% | 53% | 12% | 81% | 41% | 12% | 53% | 15% | 50% | 83% | 43% | 46% | 53% | 51% | 46% | 48% | 51% | 44% |
Other | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% |
Undecided | 7% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 11% | 4% | 15% | 4% | 4% | 10% | 19% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 1% | 7% | 3% | 8% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 3% | 12% | 6% | 4% | 9% | 4% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 27% | 29% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 29% | 71% | 49% | 44% | 7% | 33% | 43% | 24% | 7% | 87% | 28% | 40% | 27% | 17% | 43% | 40% | 40% | 37% | 24% | 65% | 35% |
2 | If the election for State Labor Commissioner were today, who would you vote for (candidate names rotated) ...? Bruce Starr? Or Brad Avakian? |
548 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | When Will You Vote? | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Already | Before E | ON Elect | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Portland | Rest of | |
Bruce Starr | 31% | 35% | 27% | 32% | 32% | 28% | 33% | 32% | 30% | 27% | 33% | 35% | 29% | 18% | 47% | 18% | 33% | 68% | 28% | 50% | 31% | 14% | 42% | 31% | 27% | 30% | 34% | 30% | 31% | 32% |
Brad Avakian | 29% | 29% | 29% | 23% | 24% | 36% | 33% | 24% | 35% | 25% | 31% | 37% | 21% | 32% | 16% | 42% | 24% | 18% | 32% | 15% | 32% | 41% | 17% | 27% | 37% | 26% | 29% | 36% | 32% | 24% |
Undecided | 40% | 35% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 36% | 34% | 44% | 35% | 48% | 36% | 29% | 50% | 50% | 37% | 40% | 43% | 14% | 40% | 35% | 36% | 45% | 41% | 42% | 36% | 44% | 37% | 34% | 37% | 44% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 27% | 29% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 29% | 71% | 49% | 44% | 7% | 33% | 43% | 24% | 7% | 87% | 28% | 40% | 27% | 17% | 43% | 40% | 40% | 37% | 24% | 65% | 35% |
566 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | When Will You Vote? | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Already | Before E | ON Elect | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Portland | Rest of | |
Yes | 42% | 45% | 39% | 49% | 43% | 43% | 29% | 46% | 37% | 52% | 37% | 43% | 41% | 35% | 24% | 50% | 50% | 28% | 44% | 26% | 38% | 67% | 42% | 44% | 39% | 47% | 39% | 39% | 42% | 42% |
No | 49% | 47% | 50% | 39% | 46% | 48% | 65% | 43% | 55% | 38% | 53% | 53% | 44% | 46% | 68% | 39% | 41% | 66% | 48% | 68% | 52% | 22% | 46% | 48% | 51% | 42% | 55% | 50% | 48% | 51% |
Not Certain | 10% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 6% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 3% | 15% | 19% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 6% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 6% | 11% | 11% | 8% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 24% | 27% | 28% | 20% | 51% | 49% | 30% | 70% | 48% | 45% | 7% | 33% | 42% | 25% | 7% | 87% | 28% | 41% | 26% | 17% | 43% | 39% | 40% | 37% | 23% | 66% | 34% |
On Measure 82, which would allow privately owned casinos, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? |
566 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | When Will You Vote? | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Already | Before E | ON Elect | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Portland | Rest of | |
Yes | 31% | 37% | 24% | 39% | 28% | 33% | 21% | 33% | 28% | 40% | 27% | 33% | 28% | 36% | 32% | 27% | 35% | 36% | 31% | 33% | 34% | 24% | 34% | 33% | 27% | 32% | 31% | 30% | 30% | 32% |
No | 58% | 56% | 60% | 47% | 58% | 57% | 71% | 53% | 63% | 46% | 63% | 64% | 53% | 48% | 58% | 61% | 53% | 59% | 59% | 56% | 55% | 66% | 43% | 56% | 66% | 55% | 58% | 62% | 60% | 55% |
Not Certain | 12% | 7% | 16% | 14% | 14% | 10% | 8% | 14% | 9% | 14% | 10% | 3% | 19% | 16% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 5% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 23% | 11% | 7% | 13% | 11% | 9% | 11% | 13% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 24% | 27% | 28% | 20% | 51% | 49% | 30% | 70% | 48% | 45% | 7% | 33% | 42% | 25% | 7% | 87% | 28% | 41% | 26% | 17% | 43% | 39% | 40% | 37% | 23% | 66% | 34% |
On Measure 83, which would allow a privately owned casino in Wood Village, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? |
566 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | When Will You Vote? | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Already | Before E | ON Elect | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Portland | Rest of | |
Yes | 31% | 36% | 26% | 41% | 25% | 34% | 22% | 33% | 29% | 41% | 26% | 34% | 28% | 27% | 33% | 28% | 33% | 38% | 31% | 32% | 35% | 23% | 35% | 33% | 27% | 32% | 30% | 31% | 30% | 33% |
No | 57% | 55% | 59% | 45% | 59% | 55% | 72% | 52% | 62% | 46% | 62% | 64% | 51% | 50% | 58% | 59% | 52% | 49% | 59% | 58% | 51% | 66% | 46% | 54% | 65% | 54% | 57% | 61% | 58% | 54% |
Not Certain | 12% | 10% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 11% | 7% | 15% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 3% | 21% | 24% | 10% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 9% | 14% | 11% | 19% | 13% | 9% | 14% | 13% | 8% | 12% | 13% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 24% | 27% | 28% | 20% | 51% | 49% | 30% | 70% | 48% | 45% | 7% | 33% | 42% | 25% | 7% | 87% | 28% | 41% | 26% | 17% | 43% | 39% | 40% | 37% | 23% | 66% | 34% |
566 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | When Will You Vote? | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Already | Before E | ON Elect | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Portland | Rest of | |
Yes | 51% | 50% | 52% | 59% | 47% | 51% | 46% | 52% | 49% | 48% | 52% | 57% | 44% | 50% | 36% | 60% | 54% | 24% | 55% | 33% | 52% | 70% | 47% | 46% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 53% | 51% | 50% |
No | 32% | 36% | 27% | 18% | 33% | 36% | 40% | 26% | 38% | 26% | 34% | 34% | 31% | 23% | 47% | 20% | 31% | 69% | 28% | 53% | 29% | 14% | 30% | 33% | 31% | 27% | 35% | 35% | 32% | 32% |
Undecided | 18% | 14% | 21% | 23% | 20% | 13% | 14% | 21% | 13% | 26% | 14% | 10% | 25% | 27% | 17% | 19% | 15% | 7% | 17% | 14% | 18% | 17% | 23% | 21% | 11% | 23% | 15% | 12% | 17% | 18% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 24% | 27% | 28% | 20% | 51% | 49% | 30% | 70% | 48% | 45% | 7% | 33% | 42% | 25% | 7% | 87% | 28% | 41% | 26% | 17% | 43% | 39% | 40% | 37% | 23% | 66% | 34% |