Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #23222
 
After Denouncing Trump, Republican Paulsen Well-Positioned for Re-Election in Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District:

25 days until votes are counted in Minnesota's 3rd U.S. Congressional District, incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen is comfortably ahead of Democratic challenger Terri Bonoff, 49% to 38%, in spite of, or perhaps because of, Paulsen's decision to denounce Donald Trump, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities.

Paulsen seeks his 5th term in Washington. His district, west of Minneapolis, is bisected by U.S. Highway 12 running East and West through Orono and Independence counties, and by Interstate 494 running North and South through Eden Prairie, Minnetonka and Plymouth counties. Paulsen was first elected in 2008. He won by 8 percentage points in 2008, won by 22 points in 2010, won by 16 points in 2012, won by 25 points in 2014, and leads by 11 points at this hour.

Paulsen holds 90% of the Republican base, compared to Bonoff who holds 84% of the Democratic base. Bonoff leads among the youngest voters, but Paulsen leads by double-digits among voters age 35+. Independents back Paulsen by 11 points. Moderates break for Bonoff by 4 points. Paulsen leads among those with less formal education and those with more formal education, leads among the rich, leads among the middle-income voters, and leads among the poor.

Paulsen has a Plus 22 Net job approval rating --- 51% of 11/08/16 voters approve of the job Paulsen is doing in Congress; 29% disapprove. Voters focused on terrorism, taxes and the economy back Paulsen. Voters focused on health care split. Voters focused on education back Bonoff.

About this poll: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District 10/10/16 through 10/13/16, using Registration Based sample (RBS, also known as: voter list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington D.C. All of the interviews were conducted after Paulsen announced 10/09/16 that he would not vote for Donald Trump, the titular head of his Republican party. Of the registered voters, 579 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were contacted on their cell phone, by live interviewers, who hand-dialed each cell phone number, secured the respondent's cooperation, guaranteed the respondent's safety, read the questions, input the answers, and remained on the phone until the completion of the interview.
 
1If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District were today, who would you vote for? Republican Erik Paulsen? Or DFL candidate Terri Bonoff?
579 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyVote For PresideTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratConservaModerateLiberalTrumpClintonTaxesEconomyEducatioHealth CTerrorisHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Erik Paulsen (R)49%53%45%22%47%54%51%40%53%94%86%89%38%15%9%3%90%46%7%86%41%12%88%18%56%52%23%44%65%53%55%46%44%50%51%39%54%
Terri Bonoff (DFL)38%36%40%45%37%36%39%39%37%2%5%3%36%64%84%85%4%35%84%9%45%72%5%72%31%41%61%45%22%28%31%42%37%41%37%38%38%
Undecided13%11%16%33%16%10%10%21%10%4%8%8%27%21%7%11%6%19%9%5%14%16%7%10%13%6%16%11%13%19%13%12%19%9%12%23%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%9%22%38%31%31%69%14%15%13%17%13%15%10%29%43%25%31%43%21%35%48%14%26%10%15%20%10%30%59%14%32%53%34%66%
 
2If the election for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Hillary Clinton? Libertarian Gary Johnson? Green Party candidate Jill Stein? Or one of the other candidates?
579 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyVote For PresideTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratConservaModerateLiberalTrumpClintonTaxesEconomyEducatioHealth CTerrorisHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Donald Trump (R)35%39%32%22%31%37%40%29%38%84%71%50%17%10%7%7%77%25%7%75%23%7%100%0%35%41%19%24%54%47%41%32%31%43%35%28%39%
Hillary Clinton (D)48%40%55%54%51%43%51%52%46%6%12%19%51%82%93%87%9%51%91%12%58%80%0%100%37%48%74%61%30%39%40%53%58%45%48%49%48%
Gary Johnson (L)4%7%2%4%5%7%1%5%4%3%4%13%6%3%0%2%3%7%1%3%5%3%0%0%3%2%3%5%5%5%5%4%0%3%7%4%5%
Jill Stein (G)1%1%1%0%0%2%1%0%1%1%0%3%1%2%0%0%0%2%0%1%1%1%0%0%1%0%0%2%2%1%1%1%2%1%1%0%1%
Other3%4%3%5%2%3%4%3%4%6%6%7%4%0%0%0%6%4%0%6%3%1%0%0%6%2%0%4%4%1%3%4%0%2%5%4%3%
Undecided8%9%7%15%10%8%4%12%6%1%6%8%21%4%0%4%4%12%2%3%11%8%0%0%16%7%4%4%5%7%10%6%9%5%5%16%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%9%22%38%31%31%69%14%15%13%17%13%15%10%29%43%25%31%43%21%35%48%14%26%10%15%20%10%30%59%14%32%53%34%66%
 
3Do you approve or disapprove of the job Eric Paulsen is doing as US Representative?
579 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyVote For PresideTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratConservaModerateLiberalTrumpClintonTaxesEconomyEducatioHealth CTerrorisHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Approve51%54%48%37%47%56%53%44%55%89%76%79%56%24%20%10%82%53%16%82%49%18%78%29%62%57%26%45%68%50%58%49%49%53%53%49%52%
Disapprove29%29%29%28%28%32%28%28%30%7%6%11%20%49%60%65%7%26%62%8%32%56%9%50%22%29%46%38%16%29%28%30%34%31%28%27%31%
Not Sure19%16%22%35%26%13%18%28%15%4%18%10%24%28%20%24%11%21%22%10%19%26%12%21%17%15%28%17%16%21%14%20%17%17%19%24%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%9%22%38%31%31%69%14%15%13%17%13%15%10%29%43%25%31%43%21%35%48%14%26%10%15%20%10%30%59%14%32%53%34%66%
 
4Which one of these issues is most important when deciding how you will vote in this election? Taxes? The economy? Education? Health care? Terrorism and national security? Transportation? Or something else?
579 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyVote For PresideTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratConservaModerateLiberalTrumpClintonTaxesEconomyEducatioHealth CTerrorisHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Taxes14%15%13%24%22%12%8%22%10%17%16%10%25%10%7%8%17%16%7%19%15%6%14%11%100%0%0%0%0%17%17%12%14%13%14%19%11%
Economy26%32%21%24%25%26%28%25%27%33%23%32%21%23%33%16%28%25%26%32%25%24%30%26%0%100%0%0%0%17%24%29%19%30%25%23%28%
Education10%9%11%13%16%8%7%15%8%1%1%2%9%14%21%28%1%8%24%3%11%19%5%16%0%0%100%0%0%4%5%14%7%7%14%13%8%
Health Care15%12%18%13%4%19%19%7%19%11%18%12%10%27%12%22%15%16%16%11%14%25%11%19%0%0%0%100%0%26%14%14%23%17%13%11%18%
Terrorism And National Security20%16%23%8%15%23%22%13%23%29%24%36%18%10%12%8%26%21%10%26%22%8%30%13%0%0%0%0%100%25%24%17%12%22%20%19%20%
Transportation1%1%1%4%0%0%2%1%1%1%2%0%0%3%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%2%1%4%1%0%2%1%
Other10%10%9%13%13%9%8%13%8%5%9%6%13%13%7%14%7%11%10%6%8%13%6%11%0%0%0%0%0%7%7%12%12%7%11%10%10%
Not Sure4%3%4%0%5%3%5%4%4%2%7%1%4%0%6%2%5%2%5%2%4%3%3%3%0%0%0%0%0%4%6%2%7%3%3%4%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%9%22%38%31%31%69%14%15%13%17%13%15%10%29%43%25%31%43%21%35%48%14%26%10%15%20%10%30%59%14%32%53%34%66%
 
5What should be done to address rapidly rising health insurance rates? Repeal the Affordable Care Act ,also known as Obamacare, and start over with another plan? Make changes to the Affordable Care Act, but keep much of it in place? Go to government-run or universal health care? Or something else?
579 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyVote For PresideTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratConservaModerateLiberalTrumpClintonTaxesEconomyEducatioHealth CTerrorisHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Repeal The Affordable Care Act41%42%39%30%38%44%42%36%43%86%69%66%35%10%5%6%77%36%6%80%28%10%81%10%58%42%7%31%58%45%45%38%33%47%41%35%44%
Make Changes37%34%40%20%43%34%41%36%37%4%14%18%34%58%76%61%9%37%70%9%50%53%10%62%26%36%73%41%24%34%33%39%36%34%37%32%39%
Government-run Or Universal Health Care13%13%13%34%10%12%9%17%11%1%7%2%20%23%14%27%4%15%20%4%11%29%2%23%8%13%10%25%5%7%11%15%16%11%13%19%10%
Other6%7%4%7%5%5%7%6%6%5%7%13%5%3%2%3%6%7%2%4%7%3%5%3%5%6%2%2%8%9%6%5%4%6%6%7%5%
Not Sure4%4%4%9%4%5%2%5%4%3%4%1%7%6%3%3%3%5%3%3%4%4%2%3%2%3%8%0%5%6%5%3%11%2%4%7%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%9%22%38%31%31%69%14%15%13%17%13%15%10%29%43%25%31%43%21%35%48%14%26%10%15%20%10%30%59%14%32%53%34%66%
 
6Do you think the federal gas tax should be increased to help pay for transportation projects like highways, bridges and mass transit?
579 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyVote For PresideTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratConservaModerateLiberalTrumpClintonTaxesEconomyEducatioHealth CTerrorisHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Yes47%47%47%48%43%45%51%45%48%25%30%46%43%74%56%66%28%54%60%28%54%65%30%64%41%50%57%56%37%46%46%47%58%43%47%50%46%
No45%48%42%50%45%46%42%46%44%68%59%50%51%19%33%27%63%41%30%66%36%30%63%27%57%40%41%35%55%47%47%44%36%50%46%43%46%
Not Sure8%5%11%2%12%9%6%9%8%7%11%3%6%7%12%7%9%6%10%5%10%5%7%9%2%10%2%9%7%8%6%9%6%7%7%7%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%9%22%38%31%31%69%14%15%13%17%13%15%10%29%43%25%31%43%21%35%48%14%26%10%15%20%10%30%59%14%32%53%34%66%