| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #23992 |
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In Georgia Primary for Open Governor's Seat, Will Republican Cagle Win the Right To Advance, Or Is July Run-Off Necessary? GOP May Have Slight November Advantage Today, 25 Weeks Till Deal Successor is Chosen: One week till votes are counted in the Georgia primary, Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle emerges from a crowded Republican primary field as the clear favorite, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for WXIA-TV in Atlanta. But, will Cagle have a tailwind sufficient to propel him to the 50% threshold needed to avoid a July run-off? Democrat Stacey Abrams, the ex-State House Minority Leader, is the clear favorite on the Democratic side, where the 2-candidate field ensures no runoff will be necessary. Cagle is at 35% today, doubling his nearest competitor Brian Kemp, the GA Secretary of State. But with former State Senator Hunter Hill, business consultant Clay Tippins, and others siphoning votes, it is uncertain which side of 50% Cagle will end up on when all of the undecided voters choose sides. Abrams leads ex-State Representative Stacey Evans by 19 points at this hour, but some voters are troubled that Abrams has acknowledged that she is in debt. In a hypothetical November match-up between Democrat Abrams and Republican Cagle, Cagle has the slightest advantage today, 25 weeks out, 46% to 41%. Though Evans underperforms Abrams in the Democratic primary, she does not underperform Abrams in a November look-ahead, where she trails Cagle by just 4 points, 45% to 41%. About: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,875 state of GA adults 05/10/18 through 05/15/18. Of the adults, 2,339 were registered to vote. Of those registered to vote, 1,033 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before the 05/22/18 deadline. Of the likely primary voters, 558 chose a Republican primary ballot, 475 chose a Democratic primary ballot. Incumbent Republican Governor Nathan Deal is term-limited. If necessary, a run-off election would be 07/24/18. |
| 1 | In the Republican primary for Georgia governor, how do you vote? |
| 558 Likely Republican Primary Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Voting | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Already | Likely V | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Atlanta | Northwes | South & | |
| Brian Kemp | 17% | 16% | 17% | 24% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 20% | 15% | 17% | ** | 8% | 18% | 18% | ** | 10% | 17% | 19% | ** | 18% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 15% | 19% | 12% | 17% | 18% | 19% | 19% | 12% |
| Clay Tippins | 8% | 10% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 9% | ** | 11% | 8% | 8% | ** | 12% | 8% | 8% | ** | 8% | 5% | 11% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 11% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 8% |
| Hunter Hill | 10% | 9% | 10% | 13% | 4% | 11% | 12% | 7% | 11% | 10% | ** | 22% | 8% | 10% | ** | 10% | 11% | 6% | ** | 9% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 7% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 11% |
| Casey Cagle | 35% | 35% | 34% | 26% | 35% | 35% | 37% | 32% | 36% | 34% | ** | 47% | 33% | 35% | ** | 30% | 37% | 28% | ** | 33% | 39% | 32% | 38% | 31% | 36% | 38% | 37% | 31% | 33% | 32% | 39% |
| Michael Williams | 3% | 4% | 3% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 3% | ** | 3% | 3% | 3% | ** | 5% | 3% | 2% | ** | 1% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 4% |
| Other Candidate | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | ** | 1% | 0% | 0% | ** | 1% | 0% | 2% | ** | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| Undecided | 27% | 25% | 29% | 20% | 30% | 28% | 26% | 27% | 27% | 28% | ** | 8% | 29% | 26% | ** | 30% | 24% | 34% | ** | 32% | 26% | 25% | 27% | 28% | 26% | 25% | 26% | 30% | 27% | 28% | 26% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters | 100% | 53% | 47% | 10% | 20% | 38% | 32% | 30% | 70% | 93% | 3% | 11% | 89% | 84% | 1% | 15% | 71% | 23% | 3% | 21% | 35% | 44% | 27% | 38% | 35% | 10% | 58% | 31% | 25% | 38% | 37% |
| 2 | In the Democratic primary for Georgia governor, how do you vote? |
| 475 Likely Democratic Primary Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Voting | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 6.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Already | Likely V | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Atlanta | Northwes | South & | |
| Stacey Abrams | 43% | 44% | 43% | 36% | 48% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 43% | 34% | 47% | 55% | 42% | ** | 44% | 42% | 41% | 39% | 52% | 49% | 37% | 47% | 40% | 41% | 51% | 39% | 45% | 44% | 43% | 41% | 46% |
| Stacey Evans | 24% | 30% | 19% | 27% | 24% | 27% | 20% | 25% | 24% | 35% | 17% | 38% | 22% | ** | 23% | 30% | 33% | 21% | 26% | 22% | 22% | 27% | 17% | 29% | 26% | 23% | 27% | 16% | 24% | 23% | 26% |
| Undecided | 33% | 26% | 38% | 37% | 29% | 29% | 39% | 32% | 33% | 31% | 36% | 7% | 36% | ** | 33% | 28% | 27% | 40% | 22% | 28% | 41% | 27% | 44% | 29% | 23% | 38% | 28% | 40% | 33% | 36% | 28% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 16% | 27% | 34% | 23% | 43% | 57% | 34% | 57% | 12% | 88% | 1% | 88% | 10% | 11% | 44% | 38% | 13% | 40% | 47% | 34% | 40% | 26% | 26% | 59% | 15% | 43% | 29% | 27% |
| 3 | If the November election for Georgia governor were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Casey Cagle and Democrat Stacey Abrams, who would you vote for? |
| 1231 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Voting | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Already | Likely V | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Atlanta | Northwes | South & | |
| Casey Cagle (R) | 46% | 50% | 42% | 36% | 37% | 50% | 53% | 36% | 51% | 62% | 6% | 44% | 47% | 88% | 4% | 38% | 80% | 33% | 7% | 54% | 44% | 44% | 38% | 46% | 52% | 26% | 44% | 61% | 36% | 52% | 49% |
| Stacey Abrams (D) | 41% | 39% | 42% | 49% | 47% | 39% | 34% | 47% | 37% | 25% | 82% | 44% | 40% | 3% | 89% | 36% | 10% | 50% | 88% | 31% | 43% | 42% | 46% | 39% | 38% | 63% | 42% | 23% | 52% | 34% | 36% |
| Undecided | 14% | 11% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 11% | 13% | 16% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 8% | 7% | 26% | 11% | 17% | 5% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 12% | 14% | 15% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 11% | 25% | 37% | 26% | 37% | 63% | 68% | 26% | 9% | 69% | 41% | 35% | 20% | 39% | 37% | 18% | 16% | 37% | 47% | 31% | 37% | 32% | 17% | 59% | 24% | 33% | 34% | 33% |
| 4 | Now, what if the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Casey Cagle and Democrat Stacey Evans, who would you vote for? |
| 1231 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Voting | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Already | Likely V | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Atlanta | Northwes | South & | |
| Casey Cagle (R) | 45% | 49% | 42% | 36% | 37% | 49% | 53% | 36% | 51% | 62% | 7% | 42% | 47% | 87% | 2% | 41% | 79% | 32% | 8% | 52% | 44% | 44% | 39% | 45% | 52% | 24% | 45% | 60% | 35% | 51% | 50% |
| Stacey Evans (D) | 41% | 41% | 42% | 51% | 47% | 40% | 34% | 48% | 37% | 27% | 76% | 45% | 41% | 6% | 87% | 37% | 12% | 51% | 85% | 32% | 44% | 43% | 44% | 42% | 38% | 61% | 42% | 27% | 52% | 37% | 36% |
| Undecided | 13% | 11% | 16% | 13% | 16% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 17% | 13% | 12% | 7% | 11% | 22% | 9% | 17% | 7% | 16% | 12% | 13% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 14% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 11% | 25% | 37% | 26% | 37% | 63% | 68% | 26% | 9% | 69% | 41% | 35% | 20% | 39% | 37% | 18% | 16% | 37% | 47% | 31% | 37% | 32% | 17% | 59% | 24% | 33% | 34% | 33% |
| 5 | Stacey Abrams has discussed being more than $200,000 in debt. Does Stacey Abrams' debt make you ... more likely to consider voting for her? Less likely to consider voting for her? Or does it make no difference either way? |
| 1231 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Voting | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Already | Likely V | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Atlanta | Northwes | South & | |
| More Likely To Consider Voting For Her | 5% | 6% | 5% | 12% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 9% | 10% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 3% | 6% |
| Less Likely To Consider Voting For Her | 35% | 35% | 34% | 35% | 34% | 34% | 35% | 34% | 35% | 41% | 16% | 28% | 36% | 48% | 16% | 39% | 46% | 30% | 19% | 32% | 34% | 36% | 34% | 33% | 36% | 25% | 34% | 42% | 32% | 36% | 36% |
| Makes No Difference | 52% | 54% | 50% | 44% | 50% | 53% | 56% | 48% | 54% | 47% | 66% | 49% | 53% | 41% | 66% | 53% | 44% | 55% | 65% | 54% | 52% | 51% | 50% | 55% | 50% | 61% | 52% | 44% | 51% | 53% | 51% |
| Not Sure | 8% | 6% | 11% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 13% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 12% | 4% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 11% | 25% | 37% | 26% | 37% | 63% | 68% | 26% | 9% | 69% | 41% | 35% | 20% | 39% | 37% | 18% | 16% | 37% | 47% | 31% | 37% | 32% | 17% | 59% | 24% | 33% | 34% | 33% |