| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14440 |
| California Proposition 8 Could Go Either Way:
In a vote today, 09/25/08, on California's Proposition 8 Ballot Initiative, which would change California's constitution to eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry, approximately half the state supports the measure, half the state opposes the measure, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. The exact findings are: 'Yes' (to change the law) 44%, 'No' (to leave the law alone) 49%. But: polling on ballot measures in general is an inexact science, and polling on homosexuality in general is a tricky business. So, not too much should be made of the 5 points that separates 'Yes' and 'No' today. Support for 8 may be higher or lower than any opinion pollster is able to measure.
What is clear: Those in the Inland Empire and the Central Valley want the law changed. Those in the Bay Area want the law left alone. Those in greater LA split. The youngest voters, who are the hardest to poll and who are the most unpredictable voters, oppose the measure. Seniors support the measure. Minority groups view the measure differently. It is difficult to draw precise conclusions, but there is evidence that blacks, Latinos and Asians each filter the measure through a different prism. Support is strong among conservatives, Republicans, and those who attend religious services regularly. Opposition is strong among liberals, Democrats, and those who never attend religious services. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 California adults 09/23/08 and 09/24/08. Of the adults, 820 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 661 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. There is a challenge in any ballot measure polling as to how much of the ballot language to read to respondents. What is read to respondents influences how the respond. Here is exactly what SurveyUSA read to respondents on this question: "Proposition 8 would eliminate the right of Same-Sex Couples to marry. It changes the California Constitution so that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid in California. On Proposition 8, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?" |
 | Proposition 8 would eliminate the right of Same-Sex Couples to marry. It changes the California Constitution so that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid in California. On Proposition 8, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {"Not Certain" voters were asked: At this hour, do you lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?} |
| 661 Likely Voters Incl. Leaners | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Intellectual? | Traveled Abroad | Speak Another La | USA Super Power | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Yes | 44% | 44% | 43% | 39% | 48% | 40% | 50% | 44% | 44% | 43% | 53% | 42% | 49% | 60% | 29% | 42% | 68% | 39% | 17% | 41% | 48% | 60% | 41% | 30% | 74% | 28% | 43% | 49% | 43% | 50% | 41% | 46% | 45% | 40% | 54% | 38% | 53% | 41% | 53% | 45% | 54% | 26% |
| No | 49% | 50% | 48% | 54% | 48% | 50% | 40% | 51% | 46% | 50% | 40% | 52% | 41% | 32% | 63% | 51% | 25% | 51% | 79% | 53% | 43% | 32% | 52% | 63% | 22% | 63% | 51% | 42% | 49% | 46% | 52% | 45% | 48% | 52% | 38% | 55% | 40% | 52% | 42% | 49% | 36% | 65% |
| Not Certain | 8% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 11% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 10% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters Incl. Leaners | 100% | 46% | 54% | 24% | 30% | 27% | 19% | 55% | 45% | 63% | 6% | 21% | 10% | 39% | 44% | 16% | 28% | 36% | 21% | 56% | 44% | 35% | 29% | 36% | 33% | 64% | 72% | 20% | 86% | 14% | 45% | 54% | 82% | 13% | 33% | 64% | 26% | 74% | 20% | 38% | 19% | 23% |