Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26636
 
CA-49: Democrat Mike Levin Leads Republican Brian Maryott in CA's Redrawn 49th, as Abortion and Inflation Drive Voters in Equal Measure:

Two years ago, voters in California's 49th Congressional District elected Democrat Mike Levin by a 6-point margin. Today, SurveyUSA's exclusive polling for KGTV 10News and the San Diego Union Tribune suggests Levin is poised to again defeat Maryott by the same margin in the newly redrawn district.

Today, it's Levin 49%, Maryott 43%, with 8% undecided. Democrats appear to currently hold a slight but important advantage in turnout: while 36% of the registered voters interviewed by SurveyUSA identified as Republicans and 35% as Democrats, the Republicans were less likely to say they were going to vote, leaving the likely voters interviewed by SurveyUSA 37% Democrats, 35% Republicans. 91% of Democrats who are likely voters say they will vote for Levin; 87% of Republican likely voters say they will vote for Maryott. Independents narrowly favor Levin, 44% to 38%.

18% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they have already returned their ballot; Levin leads by 29 points among those actual voters. ⅔ of likely voters say they are absolutely certain to vote; Levin has a 4-point edge among these voters. Another 14%, who say they are almost certain they will make time to vote, prefer Maryott by a 9-point margin.

While Republican candidates across the country have been campaigning on the issue of crime, CA-49 voters are largely focused on other topics, with just 7% of likely voters saying crime and public safety is the issue most likely to influence their vote. Maryott wins those voters, 54% to 42%. Significantly more important to voters are the issues of inflation and abortion, each selected by 26% of likely voters as being most important. Maryott wins inflation voters by 59 points, 75% to 16%; abortion voters are firmly in Levin's camp by a 76-point margin, 87% to 11%. On other issues, Maryott leads by 65 points among the 9% most focused on immigration and border security; by 17 among those focused on gas prices, who make up 8% of the electorate; and by 34 points among the 6% who say government spending is most important to their votes. Levin leads by 93 points among the 11% who say climate change and the environment will most influence their votes.

56% of likely voters say the events of January 6, 2021 were a threat to democracy; Levin wins these voters by a 68-point margin. 16% say January 6th was a justified protest (including 43% of those voters who identify themselves as very conservative and 33% of those who identify as conservative); Maryott wins this group of voters by 90 points. Another 21% say January 6th was something else; Maryott wins these voters by 70 points.

SurveyUSA also asked voters if their opinions of Maryott, Levin, President Biden, and former President Trump were positive, negative, neutral, or if they had no opinion of them. Net Favorability is calculated by subtracting unfavorable ratings from favorable ratings; Net Favorability scores, ranked from highest to lowest:
  • Plus 7: Mike Levin. 40% have a favorable opinion, 33% negative; 21% are neutral, and 6% have no opinion.
  • Minus 2: Brian Maryott. 32% have a favorable opinion of Maryott, 34% negative; 25% are neutral, and 8% have no opinion.
  • Minus 6: Joe Biden. 38% have favorable opinions, 44% negative; 17% are neutral; 2% have no opinion.
  • Minus 30: Donald Trump. 28% have favorable opinions, 58% negative; 11% are neutral; 3% have no opinion.
Fully crosstabbed results follow ...
 
About the Research / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 725 adults from California's 49th Congressional District 10/27/22 through 10/31/22. Of the adults, 669 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 568 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November 8 general election, or to have already cast their ballot. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (47% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer, using telephone sample of registered voters purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Respondents unreachable on a landline telephone (53% of likely voters) were shown the survey questions on the display of their smartphone, laptop or tablet, using online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to targets for gender, age, race, and home ownership.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of California?
725 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop IssueAbortionJanuary 6thJanuary 6th Vote ImpactParent2020 President2020 HouseEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlmost CAbsoluteAlready InflatioGas PricAbortionCrime / ImmigratClimate GovernmeAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeThreat TJustifieSomethinVery ImpSomewhatNot VeryNot At AYesNoTrumpBidenMaryottLevinHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineTelephon
Yes92%94%91%81%95%92%100%88%96%92%93%89%93%94%92%100%92%93%92%99%95%93%95%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%**100%100%100%100%100%100%100%90%93%100%99%100%100%75%90%97%81%91%97%98%82%90%93%87%100%
No7%6%8%16%5%8%0%11%4%7%7%10%7%5%6%0%8%7%6%1%5%7%4%---------------------9%6%0%1%0%0%21%10%3%19%8%3%2%17%10%7%12%0%
Not Sure1%0%1%3%0%0%0%1%0%1%0%1%0%1%1%0%0%0%2%0%0%0%1%---------------------1%1%0%1%0%0%4%0%1%1%2%0%0%2%0%1%1%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%48%52%23%22%28%27%46%54%79%15%6%35%34%26%10%22%39%16%8%32%39%24%12%57%16%26%8%26%7%9%11%6%40%27%25%5%56%16%21%47%13%14%24%27%73%35%42%28%37%10%36%54%17%33%50%62%38%25%74%61%39%
 
2California will hold an election for Governor, for other statewide offices, and for Congress in November. Not everyone has a chance to vote in an election. Which best describes you? Are you not interested in politics and will not vote? Not sure whether you will or will not have the time? Almost certain you'll find the time to vote? Absolutely certain you will vote? Or have you already voted?
669 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop IssueAbortionJanuary 6thJanuary 6th Vote ImpactParent2020 President2020 HouseEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlmost CAbsoluteAlready InflatioGas PricAbortionCrime / ImmigratClimate GovernmeAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeThreat TJustifieSomethinVery ImpSomewhatNot VeryNot At AYesNoTrumpBidenMaryottLevinHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineTelephon
Not Interested / Will Not Vote5%9%2%9%9%1%4%9%3%6%3%5%8%2%4%14%3%5%3%0%7%5%2%0%0%0%------------------10%3%5%3%5%2%10%5%5%3%10%3%5%6%16%2%7%3%
Not Sure Will Have Time8%9%7%12%17%5%1%15%3%9%4%11%8%4%13%4%10%8%11%2%8%8%8%0%0%0%------------------12%7%6%4%5%2%8%11%6%20%6%7%6%12%16%6%13%1%
Almost Certain12%13%11%24%15%7%6%19%7%11%18%13%13%8%16%12%12%14%9%4%12%14%7%100%0%0%10%32%12%11%17%8%28%14%10%14%**13%10%16%9%25%28%10%18%9%15%9%9%9%26%14%9%14%16%9%8%20%16%11%16%7%
Absolutely Certain57%53%61%45%55%71%54%50%63%58%57%52%56%63%54%53%59%59%49%78%57%59%59%0%100%0%71%56%67%76%64%64%62%66%69%73%**66%72%69%69%62%60%73%50%60%59%62%68%62%35%52%64%43%51%65%61%49%38%64%56%59%
Already Voted16%15%16%5%3%16%33%4%25%15%18%17%14%21%13%15%14%14%26%16%14%14%22%0%0%100%19%11%21%13%19%27%10%20%21%13%**21%18%15%22%13%12%18%7%19%14%22%13%24%15%16%16%14%15%16%18%9%13%15%6%29%
Not Sure2%1%2%5%1%0%2%3%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%0%2%0%1%0%1%0%0%0%------------------3%1%1%1%0%0%6%2%1%6%2%0%1%4%1%2%2%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%21%23%28%29%44%56%79%15%6%36%35%26%11%22%39%16%9%33%39%24%12%57%16%26%8%26%7%9%11%6%40%27%25%5%56%16%21%47%13%14%24%26%74%38%45%31%40%9%35%57%15%32%53%66%34%25%74%58%42%
 
3If the election for US House of Representatives in California's 49th Congressional District were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? Republican Brian Maryott? Or Democrat Mike Levin?
568 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop IssueAbortionJanuary 6thJanuary 6th Vote ImpactParent2020 President2020 HouseEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlmost CAbsoluteAlready InflatioGas PricAbortionCrime / ImmigratClimate GovernmeAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeThreat TJustifieSomethinVery ImpSomewhatNot VeryNot At AYesNoTrumpBidenMaryottLevinHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineTelephon
Brian Maryott (R)43%44%42%38%38%43%48%38%46%42%47%47%87%6%38%82%86%36%4%3%84%36%4%42%45%35%75%50%11%54%81%3%57%14%50%74%**12%95%80%7%48%79%91%37%45%89%4%94%7%59%40%43%43%47%40%43%41%41%43%41%45%
Mike Levin (D)49%51%48%48%48%49%51%48%50%50%46%45%11%91%44%15%10%51%95%92%11%51%94%33%49%64%16%33%87%42%16%96%23%78%43%20%**80%5%10%86%40%13%4%47%50%3%91%4%91%23%52%51%50%41%53%50%47%51%49%46%54%
Undecided8%5%10%14%13%7%1%14%4%8%7%9%2%3%17%3%5%13%1%5%4%13%3%25%6%1%9%17%3%4%3%1%20%8%7%6%**8%1%10%8%13%8%5%15%5%8%5%2%2%18%8%6%7%11%6%6%12%8%8%14%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%18%20%31%32%38%62%78%17%5%35%37%25%11%22%40%15%10%33%40%26%14%67%18%26%8%26%7%9%11%6%40%27%25%5%56%16%21%47%13%14%24%23%77%39%49%32%45%8%34%59%12%31%56%68%32%20%79%53%47%
 
4And if you were filling out your ballot for Governor of California right now, who would you vote for? Republican Brian Dahle? Or Democrat Gavin Newsom?
568 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop IssueAbortionJanuary 6thJanuary 6th Vote ImpactParent2020 President2020 HouseEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlmost CAbsoluteAlready InflatioGas PricAbortionCrime / ImmigratClimate GovernmeAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeThreat TJustifieSomethinVery ImpSomewhatNot VeryNot At AYesNoTrumpBidenMaryottLevinHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineTelephon
Brian Dahle (R)46%42%49%45%38%47%49%41%48%45%48%46%88%8%44%83%84%42%7%3%84%42%6%49%47%39%71%65%12%58%84%8%63%19%51%75%**16%97%80%11%41%83%94%40%48%91%6%91%9%53%42%47%40%53%43%47%43%40%47%45%46%
Gavin Newsom (D)48%51%45%45%50%48%49%47%48%49%41%49%11%89%41%15%11%49%92%90%12%49%91%31%48%61%21%24%84%38%15%91%36%77%44%17%**78%3%12%83%48%8%3%45%49%4%90%6%87%27%52%48%53%40%51%48%47%51%47%44%52%
Undecided6%7%5%10%12%5%2%11%3%6%10%5%1%2%15%3%5%9%1%7%4%9%3%20%5%0%9%11%4%4%1%1%1%5%5%7%**6%0%8%6%11%9%3%15%3%5%4%3%4%20%6%5%7%8%6%5%10%9%6%11%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%18%20%31%32%38%62%78%17%5%35%37%25%11%22%40%15%10%33%40%26%14%67%18%26%8%26%7%9%11%6%40%27%25%5%56%16%21%47%13%14%24%23%77%39%49%32%45%8%34%59%12%31%56%68%32%20%79%53%47%
 
5Is your opinion of Brian Maryott ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Brian Maryott?
568 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop IssueAbortionJanuary 6thJanuary 6th Vote ImpactParent2020 President2020 HouseEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlmost CAbsoluteAlready InflatioGas PricAbortionCrime / ImmigratClimate GovernmeAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeThreat TJustifieSomethinVery ImpSomewhatNot VeryNot At AYesNoTrumpBidenMaryottLevinHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineTelephon
Favorable32%32%31%28%35%28%36%32%32%30%38%38%58%11%27%61%61%28%1%8%61%28%4%21%35%27%50%38%10%47%56%4%44%11%34%56%**11%75%53%8%30%47%70%32%32%59%8%70%6%43%23%36%23%40%29%35%24%33%32%30%34%
Unfavorable34%37%32%28%31%37%37%30%37%36%29%24%12%61%26%9%7%31%77%69%8%31%74%19%34%47%13%30%64%23%8%61%6%60%28%9%**56%2%9%61%25%15%1%34%35%6%63%4%66%16%37%35%29%27%40%37%28%26%36%29%40%
Neutral25%22%28%34%30%22%22%32%22%25%26%26%25%20%34%26%24%33%14%12%25%33%14%47%23%18%27%27%15%28%29%28%43%18%29%31%**23%20%33%20%41%31%24%25%25%29%20%24%21%32%31%21%28%24%25%21%36%31%24%31%19%
No Opinion8%8%8%10%4%12%6%7%9%9%7%12%5%8%13%4%8%9%8%11%7%9%9%13%8%8%11%5%10%2%7%7%7%11%8%4%**9%2%5%11%5%7%5%9%8%6%9%3%7%9%8%9%20%9%6%7%12%11%8%10%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%18%20%31%32%38%62%78%17%5%35%37%25%11%22%40%15%10%33%40%26%14%67%18%26%8%26%7%9%11%6%40%27%25%5%56%16%21%47%13%14%24%23%77%39%49%32%45%8%34%59%12%31%56%68%32%20%79%53%47%
 
6Is your opinion of Mike Levin ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of MIke Levin?
568 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop IssueAbortionJanuary 6thJanuary 6th Vote ImpactParent2020 President2020 HouseEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlmost CAbsoluteAlready InflatioGas PricAbortionCrime / ImmigratClimate GovernmeAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeThreat TJustifieSomethinVery ImpSomewhatNot VeryNot At AYesNoTrumpBidenMaryottLevinHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineTelephon
Favorable40%43%37%31%42%37%47%36%42%41%42%22%13%74%28%22%7%39%76%73%12%39%75%28%39%54%16%32%69%25%14%75%16%64%33%18%**62%10%10%66%39%13%7%41%39%8%71%8%77%20%41%41%38%32%44%42%35%43%39%33%48%
Unfavorable33%34%32%30%25%35%36%28%36%31%38%43%59%7%35%59%69%24%3%12%66%24%7%22%37%26%52%31%9%51%65%3%40%12%34%57%**10%77%58%8%34%54%68%25%35%65%5%77%5%38%28%35%31%35%31%34%28%31%33%28%38%
Neutral21%19%24%29%28%22%13%28%17%23%14%26%21%14%30%14%16%31%15%9%15%31%13%37%20%15%21%30%17%22%19%21%36%19%27%22%**22%12%26%20%22%26%19%27%20%21%19%12%16%37%24%18%22%26%19%19%26%17%23%30%11%
No Opinion6%4%8%10%5%6%4%7%5%6%7%8%7%5%6%5%7%5%6%6%6%5%6%13%5%5%10%6%6%2%2%1%7%6%6%2%**5%2%6%6%5%7%6%7%5%7%4%3%1%5%7%5%8%6%6%4%11%9%5%9%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%18%20%31%32%38%62%78%17%5%35%37%25%11%22%40%15%10%33%40%26%14%67%18%26%8%26%7%9%11%6%40%27%25%5%56%16%21%47%13%14%24%23%77%39%49%32%45%8%34%59%12%31%56%68%32%20%79%53%47%
 
7What is your opinion of Donald Trump?
568 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop IssueAbortionJanuary 6thJanuary 6th Vote ImpactParent2020 President2020 HouseEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlmost CAbsoluteAlready InflatioGas PricAbortionCrime / ImmigratClimate GovernmeAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeThreat TJustifieSomethinVery ImpSomewhatNot VeryNot At AYesNoTrumpBidenMaryottLevinHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineTelephon
Favorable28%30%26%27%27%26%31%27%29%26%37%31%64%3%17%76%56%18%3%2%63%18%2%37%28%23%45%37%9%42%54%3%24%7%25%55%**5%79%46%5%14%51%67%24%30%66%1%60%3%48%29%25%30%36%23%29%27%27%28%27%29%
Unfavorable58%56%60%55%57%63%55%56%59%61%48%46%19%92%63%15%22%64%96%93%20%64%95%44%58%67%32%30%90%50%25%94%52%84%62%25%**91%7%20%89%70%29%10%60%57%11%96%17%91%42%60%59%56%51%62%57%59%63%57%57%58%
Neutral11%12%10%15%10%10%12%12%11%11%11%11%16%4%15%9%19%15%0%0%16%15%0%15%11%8%17%31%1%8%20%1%22%6%13%18%**3%14%29%2%15%20%20%11%12%21%2%22%4%9%8%14%8%10%13%12%8%7%12%11%12%
No Opinion3%2%4%4%6%1%1%5%1%2%4%11%1%1%5%0%2%3%1%5%2%3%3%4%3%2%6%1%0%1%1%3%2%2%1%2%**1%0%6%3%2%0%3%6%2%2%1%1%1%2%3%3%5%4%2%1%6%4%3%4%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%18%20%31%32%38%62%78%17%5%35%37%25%11%22%40%15%10%33%40%26%14%67%18%26%8%26%7%9%11%6%40%27%25%5%56%16%21%47%13%14%24%23%77%39%49%32%45%8%34%59%12%31%56%68%32%20%79%53%47%
 
8What is your opinion of Joe Biden?
568 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop IssueAbortionJanuary 6thJanuary 6th Vote ImpactParent2020 President2020 HouseEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlmost CAbsoluteAlready InflatioGas PricAbortionCrime / ImmigratClimate GovernmeAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeThreat TJustifieSomethinVery ImpSomewhatNot VeryNot At AYesNoTrumpBidenMaryottLevinHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineTelephon
Favorable38%37%38%26%35%38%45%30%42%40%31%29%7%73%28%11%11%36%77%65%11%36%72%15%38%54%18%22%69%19%8%74%21%61%32%15%**61%7%7%66%33%8%2%36%38%4%73%5%73%29%36%39%46%32%38%38%35%46%35%30%46%
Unfavorable44%44%45%42%36%48%46%39%47%42%51%49%85%7%44%78%84%38%4%14%82%38%8%48%46%35%71%58%15%52%79%4%54%17%52%72%**12%92%84%12%26%83%93%41%45%91%3%85%10%44%41%46%38%47%44%45%43%35%46%43%46%
Neutral17%19%15%30%25%12%8%27%10%17%15%21%8%18%25%7%5%24%18%21%5%24%19%31%15%11%8%20%15%29%13%22%19%21%15%13%**26%1%7%19%37%9%3%22%15%4%23%8%16%25%22%13%15%19%17%16%19%14%18%24%8%
No Opinion2%1%2%3%3%1%0%3%1%1%3%2%0%2%3%4%0%2%1%0%2%2%1%5%1%1%3%0%2%0%0%0%6%1%1%0%**1%0%2%2%4%0%1%2%2%2%1%1%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%1%4%5%1%2%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%18%20%31%32%38%62%78%17%5%35%37%25%11%22%40%15%10%33%40%26%14%67%18%26%8%26%7%9%11%6%40%27%25%5%56%16%21%47%13%14%24%23%77%39%49%32%45%8%34%59%12%31%56%68%32%20%79%53%47%
 
9Which of the following issues is likely to most influence your vote heading into the 2022 elections? Inflation? Gas prices? Housing? Homelessness? Abortion? Crime and public safety? Immigration and border security? Climate change and the environment? Or Government spending?
568 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop IssueAbortionJanuary 6thJanuary 6th Vote ImpactParent2020 President2020 HouseEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlmost CAbsoluteAlready InflatioGas PricAbortionCrime / ImmigratClimate GovernmeAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeThreat TJustifieSomethinVery ImpSomewhatNot VeryNot At AYesNoTrumpBidenMaryottLevinHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineTelephon
Inflation26%26%26%22%25%26%30%23%28%27%22%30%38%10%32%38%41%26%11%7%40%26%10%19%27%27%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%14%33%38%**14%40%45%10%30%38%50%26%26%42%9%43%12%35%24%26%22%24%27%25%26%26%25%26%26%
Gas Prices8%9%7%14%10%7%4%12%6%6%20%4%12%6%6%10%10%10%2%4%10%10%2%18%7%5%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%4%5%16%**5%10%9%5%7%14%9%7%8%11%5%9%6%14%8%7%13%9%7%7%11%9%8%11%4%
Housing3%2%3%4%6%2%1%5%2%3%2%3%2%3%5%2%1%3%3%9%1%3%5%2%3%3%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%4%1%4%**4%3%0%4%5%0%1%2%3%1%4%1%4%3%3%3%5%3%3%2%5%6%2%5%1%
Homelessness4%2%5%4%6%3%3%5%3%4%4%5%3%3%3%5%3%4%2%8%4%4%4%5%4%3%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%4%4%2%**4%0%7%5%4%4%2%5%4%4%4%3%4%9%5%3%4%6%3%5%2%4%4%5%3%
Abortion26%24%27%31%23%28%22%27%25%27%20%22%8%46%21%10%6%25%49%50%8%25%50%21%26%29%0%0%100%0%0%0%0%45%17%8%**42%1%5%45%19%7%5%29%25%6%45%7%45%11%27%27%24%23%28%28%23%28%26%25%27%
Crime / Public Safety7%7%8%4%3%10%9%4%10%5%17%12%10%6%7%6%14%7%2%5%11%7%3%6%8%5%0%0%0%100%0%0%0%4%5%11%**6%16%5%7%4%8%10%5%8%9%7%11%3%1%9%7%4%10%7%8%5%6%8%6%9%
Immigration / Border Security9%10%7%3%10%9%12%6%10%9%6%17%17%5%5%23%16%4%7%0%18%4%4%11%8%9%0%0%0%0%100%0%0%2%12%14%**3%26%11%4%3%13%19%9%9%18%3%19%3%12%7%10%7%10%8%9%8%6%10%7%11%
Climate Change / Environment11%13%9%8%14%8%13%11%11%13%3%5%2%17%14%2%2%12%25%12%2%12%20%6%10%16%0%0%0%0%0%100%0%16%13%1%**18%1%1%16%14%4%0%12%11%1%20%2%20%2%9%13%12%8%12%10%11%8%11%10%12%
Government Spending6%6%6%11%3%5%7%7%6%7%6%3%8%4%8%3%8%9%0%5%6%9%2%13%6%3%0%0%0%0%0%0%100%6%9%5%**3%3%17%4%13%13%4%5%6%9%3%6%4%14%7%5%10%7%5%5%9%7%6%6%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%18%20%31%32%38%62%78%17%5%35%37%25%11%22%40%15%10%33%40%26%14%67%18%26%8%26%7%9%11%6%40%27%25%5%56%16%21%47%13%14%24%23%77%39%49%32%45%8%34%59%12%31%56%68%32%20%79%53%47%
 
10Which of these statements comes most close to your own opinion on abortion?

It should always be legally permitted
It should be legally permitted with some limitations
It should be illegal except for cases of rape, incest, or to save the mother's life
It should always be illegal

568 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop IssueAbortionJanuary 6thJanuary 6th Vote ImpactParent2020 President2020 HouseEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlmost CAbsoluteAlready InflatioGas PricAbortionCrime / ImmigratClimate GovernmeAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeThreat TJustifieSomethinVery ImpSomewhatNot VeryNot At AYesNoTrumpBidenMaryottLevinHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineTelephon
Always Be Legally Permitted40%37%43%47%41%41%36%44%38%44%29%31%16%65%37%14%14%37%75%87%14%37%80%41%39%44%22%23%71%24%11%61%36%100%0%0%**62%7%16%61%48%20%9%45%39%16%63%14%61%33%47%38%38%37%44%40%42%51%39%43%38%
Legally Permitted With Some Limitations27%31%24%21%22%29%32%22%31%29%16%31%29%21%37%9%30%39%21%9%23%39%16%20%28%32%35%17%18%20%36%34%37%0%100%0%**26%22%36%23%29%32%35%20%30%28%26%32%26%25%20%32%23%25%28%28%23%24%27%22%33%
Illegal Except For Rape / Incest / Save Life25%23%26%26%28%22%25%27%24%22%37%32%42%12%20%48%43%21%2%2%45%21%2%25%27%17%36%51%8%38%38%1%20%0%0%100%**9%57%39%11%17%36%48%25%25%41%10%44%12%28%26%23%27%28%22%25%24%11%28%27%22%
Always Be Illegal 5%5%5%3%5%5%6%4%5%3%12%2%10%1%4%24%9%1%0%0%14%1%0%6%5%5%4%4%3%10%14%1%6%0%0%0%**2%9%7%3%5%5%7%10%3%10%0%10%0%8%4%5%8%5%4%5%5%9%4%5%5%
Not Sure 3%4%2%3%4%3%2%4%2%2%5%5%3%2%1%5%3%2%2%2%4%2%2%9%1%2%3%6%0%8%0%2%1%0%0%0%**1%5%2%1%0%6%2%0%3%4%1%1%1%6%3%2%3%5%1%1%6%5%2%4%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%18%20%31%32%38%62%78%17%5%35%37%25%11%22%40%15%10%33%40%26%14%67%18%26%8%26%7%9%11%6%40%27%25%5%56%16%21%47%13%14%24%23%77%39%49%32%45%8%34%59%12%31%56%68%32%20%79%53%47%
 
11How do you most view the events that took place at the Capitol in Washington DC on January 6, 2021? A threat to democracy? A justified protest? Or something else?
568 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop IssueAbortionJanuary 6thJanuary 6th Vote ImpactParent2020 President2020 HouseEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlmost CAbsoluteAlready InflatioGas PricAbortionCrime / ImmigratClimate GovernmeAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeThreat TJustifieSomethinVery ImpSomewhatNot VeryNot At AYesNoTrumpBidenMaryottLevinHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineTelephon
Threat To Democracy56%55%57%59%54%60%53%56%56%60%45%43%21%89%56%19%18%66%88%89%18%66%88%51%55%64%31%32%93%46%17%95%29%86%53%21%**100%0%0%90%75%20%7%60%55%13%94%16%88%49%56%58%61%48%61%58%54%60%56%57%55%
Justified Protest16%18%14%10%16%14%21%13%18%14%25%22%34%3%12%43%33%10%0%2%37%10%1%11%17%16%25%21%1%34%46%1%8%3%13%37%**0%100%0%5%6%27%40%8%19%36%2%35%4%19%15%16%19%18%14%15%16%13%16%11%21%
Something Else21%22%20%21%23%17%24%22%20%21%20%27%32%6%27%32%33%19%7%9%33%19%8%23%21%17%36%24%4%14%26%2%55%8%27%33%**0%0%100%5%14%40%44%22%21%40%3%41%5%19%21%20%17%23%20%21%19%18%21%21%21%
Not Sure7%5%8%10%8%8%2%9%5%6%11%9%13%2%5%5%16%4%5%0%13%4%3%15%6%3%8%23%2%5%10%2%8%3%7%9%**0%0%0%1%5%13%10%10%6%11%2%8%4%13%7%6%4%11%6%5%10%9%6%11%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%18%20%31%32%38%62%78%17%5%35%37%25%11%22%40%15%10%33%40%26%14%67%18%26%8%26%7%9%11%6%40%27%25%5%56%16%21%47%13%14%24%23%77%39%49%32%45%8%34%59%12%31%56%68%32%20%79%53%47%
 
12How important will the events of January 6 be to your vote in this election?
568 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop IssueAbortionJanuary 6thJanuary 6th Vote ImpactParent2020 President2020 HouseEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlmost CAbsoluteAlready InflatioGas PricAbortionCrime / ImmigratClimate GovernmeAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeThreat TJustifieSomethinVery ImpSomewhatNot VeryNot At AYesNoTrumpBidenMaryottLevinHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineTelephon
Very Important47%45%48%33%47%53%48%40%50%48%43%43%16%79%41%28%12%47%74%86%17%47%79%28%48%55%19%26%82%41%23%71%28%70%39%21%**74%13%10%100%0%0%0%51%45%12%80%9%78%24%52%46%51%40%49%49%41%53%45%43%51%
Somewhat Important13%11%14%25%15%11%7%20%9%12%15%9%9%12%17%5%12%17%11%10%10%17%11%23%12%9%15%11%9%8%5%17%26%15%14%9%**17%5%9%0%100%0%0%16%11%9%14%15%10%27%11%12%19%14%11%11%18%16%13%19%6%
Not Very Important14%15%12%24%13%8%14%18%11%14%12%12%23%3%15%14%20%17%5%3%18%17%4%27%12%9%20%25%3%15%19%5%28%7%16%20%**5%23%26%0%0%100%0%13%14%22%3%20%7%19%15%12%7%22%10%11%18%13%13%14%13%
Not At All Important24%26%22%14%20%28%28%17%28%23%22%31%47%2%25%49%49%17%5%1%49%17%3%16%25%22%45%28%5%31%51%0%14%5%30%46%**3%58%49%0%0%0%100%17%26%51%2%53%3%27%18%26%19%20%27%26%19%16%26%19%28%
Not Sure3%3%4%5%6%1%3%6%2%3%7%5%5%3%2%4%6%2%5%0%5%2%3%5%3%4%2%11%1%5%2%7%4%3%1%4%**1%0%6%0%0%0%0%3%4%4%2%3%2%3%3%3%4%5%3%3%4%4%3%4%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%18%20%31%32%38%62%78%17%5%35%37%25%11%22%40%15%10%33%40%26%14%67%18%26%8%26%7%9%11%6%40%27%25%5%56%16%21%47%13%14%24%23%77%39%49%32%45%8%34%59%12%31%56%68%32%20%79%53%47%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.