| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21083 |
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South of the Interstate, Alvarez Regains His Footing, Makes Up Ground Against Frontrunner Faulconer:
Two weeks ago, the candidates for Mayor of San Diego, Kevin Faulconer and David Alvarez, were running even among voters who live South of Interstate 8, an area considered an Alvarez stronghold. As a result, Faulconer showed a substantial lead in the overall poll results SurveyUSA produced for the Union Tribune newspaper and KGTV-TV 10 News. Today, new data shows that Alvarez now has a 20-point advantage among voters South of Interstate 8, and when all the numbers are rolled up, from both North and South of the Interstate, Alvarez has pulled to within 5 points of Faulconer, 49% to 44%. North of the Interstate, Faulconer maintains a 27-point advantage. South of the Interstate, Faulconer's support has eroded from 47% two weeks ago to 36% today. Men are taking a fresh look at Alvarez. 2 weeks ago, Faulconer led 2:1 among male voters, but today Alvarez has closed that gap and trails among men by 7 points. Alvarez has made up important ground among middle-aged voters, age 35 to 64. Latinos have begun to rally around Alvarez. His advantage among Latinos has increased from 4 points to 14 points, poll-on-poll. Alvarez has regained a modest lead among the least educated voters, and has made-up ground among the more educated. Alvarez has regained a modest lead among middle-income voters, and shaved a bit off Faulconer's lead among more affluent voters. But: among Independents and among moderates, Alvarez still trails. A Democrat rarely wins an election, even a bi-partisan election, without the support of moderates, and today Alvarez trails by 12 there. Among Independents, Alvarez has made no inroads against Faulconer. And: Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot - arguably the most committed voters - Faulconer leads by 13 points. Cell-phone and home-phone respondents were included in this survey. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 city of San Diego adults, 01/20/14 through 01/23/14. Of the adults, 703 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 646 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be likely to do so before the deadline. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (87% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (13% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other electronic device. |
 | If the runoff election for San Diego mayor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Kevin Faulconer? Or David Alvarez? |
| 646 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Most Important | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Voted | Education | Income | I-8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Integrit | Leadersh | Fiscal R | Reach Ac | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Already | Likely E | Likely D | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | North | South | |
| Kevin Faulconer | 49% | 50% | 48% | 46% | 50% | 48% | 56% | 48% | 51% | 55% | 32% | 38% | 52% | 35% | 52% | 41% | 48% | 77% | 32% | 75% | 24% | 55% | 73% | 53% | 23% | 55% | 47% | 48% | 38% | 50% | 51% | 42% | 46% | 55% | 61% | 36% |
| David Alvarez | 44% | 43% | 44% | 44% | 43% | 48% | 39% | 44% | 44% | 41% | 58% | 52% | 34% | 47% | 43% | 52% | 45% | 17% | 63% | 20% | 70% | 34% | 21% | 41% | 71% | 42% | 44% | 45% | 43% | 44% | 45% | 45% | 50% | 42% | 34% | 56% |
| Undecided | 7% | 6% | 7% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 18% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 11% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 10% | 7% | 19% | 6% | 5% | 14% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 29% | 30% | 23% | 19% | 58% | 42% | 55% | 7% | 22% | 16% | 13% | 87% | 33% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 35% | 41% | 24% | 26% | 45% | 26% | 28% | 28% | 44% | 10% | 32% | 57% | 26% | 35% | 39% | 50% | 45% |
 | Which of these would be the most important quality for a new mayor to have? Integrity? Leadership? Stability? Business experience? Fiscal responsibility? The ability to reach across party lines? Or something else? |
| 646 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Most Important | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Voted | Education | Income | I-8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Integrit | Leadersh | Fiscal R | Reach Ac | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Already | Likely E | Likely D | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | North | South | |
| Integrity | 33% | 25% | 41% | 30% | 29% | 36% | 40% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 37% | 35% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 34% | 33% | 31% | 38% | 29% | 36% | 34% | 37% | 30% | 23% | 41% | 31% | 32% | 40% | 28% | 34% | 36% |
| Leadership | 24% | 26% | 21% | 29% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 25% | 22% | 25% | 23% | 24% | 21% | 36% | 22% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 22% | 26% | 23% | 25% | 21% | 25% | 33% | 22% | 23% | 30% | 20% | 25% | 25% | 22% |
| Stability | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| Business Experience | 7% | 9% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 10% | 10% | 4% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9% | 5% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 6% |
| Fiscal Responsibility | 17% | 20% | 13% | 18% | 19% | 15% | 12% | 19% | 14% | 18% | 12% | 13% | 18% | 10% | 18% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 23% | 9% | 19% | 20% | 20% | 7% | 14% | 17% | 18% | 9% | 15% | 18% | 11% | 12% | 21% | 17% | 13% |
| Reach Across Party Lines | 10% | 9% | 11% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 16% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 4% | 17% | 6% | 3% | 10% | 14% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 11% |
| Something Else | 5% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 10% | 2% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 6% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 29% | 30% | 23% | 19% | 58% | 42% | 55% | 7% | 22% | 16% | 13% | 87% | 33% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 35% | 41% | 24% | 26% | 45% | 26% | 28% | 28% | 44% | 10% | 32% | 57% | 26% | 35% | 39% | 50% | 45% |