| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17225 |
| In CA, Democrats Cling to Ever-So-Slight Advantages In Governor, Senator, Lt Gov Contests; 'Yes' 7 Puffs Ahead of 'No' on Marijuana:
In statewide elections in California today 10/04/10, as early voting begins, 3 high-profile contests are fiercely fought, separated by 5 or fewer points, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA polling for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. In the race for US Senator, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer clings today to a narrow 46% to 43% advantage. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 12 days ago, Boxer is down 3 points; Republican Carly Fiorina is flat. Seniors are moving toward Boxer; voters under age 50 are giving Fiorina another look. In the race for the open Governor's seat, Democrat Jerry Brown clings today to a narrow 47% to 43% advantage. Brown is up a nominal point since the previous poll; Republican Meg Whitman is flat. There is little internal movement among many demographic subgroups, with Hispanics being an exception, where Brown had led by 11 points, now leads by 24. Whitman has offsetting strength among the larger population of white voters, dulling the overall impact of Brown's Hispanic gains. In the race for Lieutenant Governor, Democrat Gavin Newsom today edges incumbent Republican Abel Maldonado 42% to 37%. In 4 SurveyUSA polls on this race, Newsom has led by 1, 5, 3, and again today by 5 points. Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana, today passes by a slim 7-point margin, 48% to 41%. 12 days ago, "Yes" led by 5 points. Support is rising and opposition declining among voters age 50 to 64, who today support Proposition 19 by a 12-point margin, up from 5 points 12 days ago, and among those 65+, where opposition has softened. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 California adults 09/30/10 through 10/03/10. Of them, 864 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 670 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. Early voting begins in California today, 10/04/10. |
 | [Candidate names rotated] If the election for California Governor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Meg Whitman? Democrat Jerry Brown? Or another candidate? |
| 670 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Opinion Of Tea Party | College Grad | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Whitman (R) | 43% | 47% | 39% | 39% | 48% | 40% | 43% | 44% | 41% | 49% | 30% | 33% | 38% | 79% | 12% | 47% | 76% | 37% | 15% | 81% | 12% | 44% | 34% | 43% | 43% | 36% | 44% | 49% | 49% | 41% | 59% | 29% |
| Brown (D) | 47% | 43% | 50% | 48% | 43% | 49% | 48% | 45% | 49% | 41% | 62% | 57% | 46% | 15% | 78% | 35% | 19% | 50% | 76% | 14% | 77% | 40% | 49% | 48% | 45% | 52% | 46% | 42% | 40% | 49% | 30% | 60% |
| Other | 8% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 15% | 5% | 11% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 15% | 8% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 7% |
| Undecided | 2% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 18% | 34% | 27% | 20% | 53% | 47% | 60% | 6% | 21% | 13% | 34% | 42% | 22% | 30% | 43% | 21% | 33% | 40% | 22% | 6% | 53% | 47% | 23% | 33% | 44% | 19% | 40% | 17% | 24% |
 | [Candidate names rotated] California will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for United States Senator from California were today, who would you vote for? Republican Carly Fiorina? Democrat Barbara Boxer? Or another candidate? |
| 670 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Opinion Of Tea Party | College Grad | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Fiorina (R) | 43% | 48% | 39% | 37% | 47% | 42% | 44% | 43% | 43% | 49% | 28% | 34% | 38% | 82% | 11% | 49% | 83% | 37% | 8% | 86% | 11% | 46% | 22% | 42% | 46% | 38% | 46% | 49% | 58% | 41% | 59% | 24% |
| Boxer (D) | 46% | 42% | 51% | 48% | 42% | 49% | 48% | 44% | 48% | 41% | 67% | 53% | 52% | 11% | 80% | 34% | 12% | 53% | 79% | 10% | 80% | 38% | 50% | 50% | 41% | 48% | 45% | 45% | 32% | 48% | 26% | 69% |
| Other | 9% | 9% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 5% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 14% | 5% | 9% | 11% | 4% | 8% | 14% | 16% | 6% | 10% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 9% | 9% | 13% | 5% |
| Undecided | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 12% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 18% | 34% | 27% | 20% | 53% | 47% | 60% | 6% | 21% | 13% | 34% | 42% | 22% | 30% | 43% | 21% | 33% | 40% | 22% | 6% | 53% | 47% | 23% | 33% | 44% | 19% | 40% | 17% | 24% |
 | [Candidate names rotated] California will also elect a Lieutenant Governor. If the election for Lieutenant Governor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Abel Maldonado? Democrat Gavin Newsom? Or another candidate? |
| 670 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Opinion Of Tea Party | College Grad | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Maldonado (R) | 37% | 40% | 34% | 24% | 40% | 36% | 42% | 35% | 39% | 40% | 22% | 38% | 25% | 66% | 15% | 31% | 64% | 31% | 15% | 63% | 13% | 38% | 38% | 35% | 38% | 32% | 38% | 39% | 48% | 33% | 49% | 26% |
| Newsom (D) | 42% | 36% | 47% | 45% | 40% | 44% | 39% | 42% | 42% | 40% | 52% | 38% | 53% | 13% | 72% | 29% | 13% | 48% | 70% | 11% | 73% | 33% | 31% | 47% | 37% | 41% | 41% | 43% | 31% | 43% | 24% | 61% |
| Other | 19% | 21% | 16% | 29% | 16% | 18% | 16% | 20% | 17% | 17% | 22% | 22% | 19% | 19% | 11% | 33% | 22% | 17% | 13% | 23% | 12% | 26% | 18% | 15% | 23% | 23% | 19% | 15% | 19% | 21% | 23% | 11% |
| Undecided | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 18% | 34% | 27% | 20% | 53% | 47% | 60% | 6% | 21% | 13% | 34% | 42% | 22% | 30% | 43% | 21% | 33% | 40% | 22% | 6% | 53% | 47% | 23% | 33% | 44% | 19% | 40% | 17% | 24% |
 | California voters may also vote on several propositions. On Proposition 19, which would change California law to legalize marijuana and allow it to be regulated and taxed, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: At this hour, on Proposition 19, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?} |
| 670 Likely Voters Incl. Leaners | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Opinion Of Tea Party | College Grad | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Certain Yes | 48% | 54% | 43% | 61% | 47% | 50% | 36% | 52% | 44% | 51% | 47% | 45% | 42% | 35% | 57% | 53% | 29% | 55% | 67% | 35% | 65% | 41% | 42% | 50% | 46% | 47% | 46% | 51% | 41% | 48% | 42% | 58% |
| Certain No | 41% | 38% | 44% | 30% | 45% | 38% | 48% | 39% | 43% | 40% | 37% | 45% | 42% | 57% | 30% | 36% | 64% | 34% | 23% | 59% | 25% | 44% | 33% | 38% | 44% | 42% | 44% | 39% | 48% | 42% | 48% | 28% |
| Not Certain | 11% | 8% | 13% | 9% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 8% | 13% | 10% | 16% | 10% | 16% | 8% | 12% | 11% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 6% | 11% | 15% | 25% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 13% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters Incl. Leaners | 100% | 50% | 50% | 18% | 34% | 27% | 20% | 53% | 47% | 60% | 6% | 21% | 13% | 34% | 42% | 22% | 30% | 43% | 21% | 33% | 40% | 22% | 6% | 53% | 47% | 23% | 33% | 44% | 19% | 40% | 17% | 24% |