Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14750
 
In Ohio, Early Voters May Give Obama Enough Running Head Start That McCain Can't Catch Him on Election Day: Barack Obama 48%, John McCain 46%, in SurveyUSA's final tracking poll released Election Eve. Obama leads 5:3 among those who have already voted. McCain leads 5:4 among those who have not yet voted. Obama led in the past 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls, but by tapering margins. Obama led by 5 on 10/14/08, by 4 on 10/28/08 and by 2 today. It is possible that McCain could overtake Obama in the final 24 hours, but that would require young voters to stay home on Election Day and white voters from Dayton, Cincinnati and along the West Virginia border to show up in larger numbers than they have so far indicated. Research underwritten by WCMH-TV Columbus, WKYC-TV Cleveland and WHIO-TV Dayton. 800 adults interviewed 10/30/08 through 11/02/08 yielded 744 registered voters and 660 likely voters.
 
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?
660 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAlready Voted?College GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
McCain (R)46%45%48%42%54%41%46%49%43%49%44%44%51%10%****86%14%40%78%36%9%36%51%52%42%53%44%35%69%27%56%38%37%53%42%56%54%46%40%60%
Obama (D)48%48%48%53%40%53%47%46%51%47%49%50%43%88%****12%80%48%19%58%83%60%43%43%52%42%50%57%26%67%39%56%56%42%52%39%40%49%53%38%
Other3%4%2%3%3%3%4%3%4%3%5%3%3%0%****1%3%9%2%4%4%3%3%3%3%2%5%4%3%3%3%4%4%3%3%4%4%3%4%2%
Undecided2%3%2%2%2%2%3%2%3%2%2%3%2%2%****1%3%3%2%2%4%1%3%2%3%2%2%3%2%3%3%2%3%2%3%2%1%2%3%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%48%52%24%30%26%20%54%46%50%11%39%87%10%1%2%37%43%19%35%43%15%30%70%44%56%50%27%24%46%51%41%56%43%57%9%11%14%19%40%5%
 
Ohio will also elect an Attorney General. If the election for Attorney General were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mike Crites? Democrat Richard Cordray? Or independent candidate Robert Owens?
660 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAlready Voted?College GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Mike Crites (R)35%35%36%33%41%32%35%38%33%37%34%34%39%12%****70%9%29%62%26%8%29%38%42%31%44%31%24%56%19%42%30%27%42%35%42%45%34%31%33%
Richard Cordray (D)50%48%52%53%40%57%55%46%56%46%54%55%47%79%****19%81%43%24%59%83%62%45%45%54%46%51%58%32%67%45%55%58%45%51%38%37%59%55%45%
Robert Owens (I)7%10%5%8%10%7%5%9%6%9%7%6%7%5%****5%5%19%7%8%5%3%9%7%8%4%11%10%6%8%7%7%9%6%10%11%7%3%7%12%
Undecided7%6%7%6%10%5%5%8%5%8%5%6%7%4%****6%6%9%7%7%4%6%7%6%8%6%6%8%7%6%6%7%6%7%4%9%11%4%6%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%48%52%24%30%26%20%54%46%50%11%39%87%10%1%2%37%43%19%35%43%15%30%70%44%56%50%27%24%46%51%41%56%43%57%9%11%14%19%40%5%
 
Ohio will also vote on several ballot proposals. On Issue, 5, regarding payday lending, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Issue 5, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"}
660 Likely & Actual Voters Incl. LeanersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAlready Voted?College GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Lean Toward Yes37%36%37%32%37%40%38%35%39%34%35%40%36%44%****30%42%37%32%38%46%43%34%43%32%35%39%38%31%41%38%36%35%38%40%29%37%38%39%18%
Lean Toward No41%45%37%38%37%44%48%37%46%37%49%44%42%36%****48%37%37%47%40%30%43%40%39%43%44%41%35%47%36%41%40%43%39%43%43%42%34%41%60%
Don't Lean22%19%26%31%27%15%15%28%15%29%16%16%22%20%****22%20%26%21%22%24%14%26%18%26%21%20%27%22%22%21%23%22%22%17%28%21%27%20%22%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters Incl. Leaners100%48%52%24%30%26%20%54%46%50%11%39%87%10%1%2%37%43%19%35%43%15%30%70%44%56%50%27%24%46%51%41%56%43%57%9%11%14%19%40%5%
 
On Issue, 6, regarding allowing a casino in Clinton County, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Issue 6, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"}
660 Likely & Actual Voters Incl. LeanersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAlready Voted?College GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Lean Toward Yes41%47%36%50%41%41%30%45%36%46%25%39%40%47%****36%46%43%32%46%50%42%41%35%46%32%50%52%31%50%45%39%43%40%35%42%49%38%42%31%
Lean Toward No55%49%61%44%57%57%65%51%60%50%72%58%57%45%****62%51%52%63%52%47%55%56%62%50%64%47%45%64%47%52%58%52%58%62%54%47%56%55%69%
Don't Lean3%4%3%6%2%2%4%4%3%4%3%3%3%8%****3%3%5%4%3%3%3%4%2%5%4%3%3%4%2%3%3%4%2%3%4%4%6%3%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters Incl. Leaners100%48%52%24%30%26%20%54%46%50%11%39%87%10%1%2%37%43%19%35%43%15%30%70%44%56%50%27%24%46%51%41%56%43%57%9%11%14%19%40%5%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.