Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26325
 
California Top-Two Primary: Gavin Newsom, Alex Padilla All But Certain to Advance to November General Election, But Who Will They Face?

With voting already underway in California's June 7th primary election, SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling shows incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom and incumbent US Senator Alex Padilla easily advancing out of the top-two primary and into the general election ... but who will face off against the incumbent Democrats is much more difficult to handicap, according to SurveyUSA's latest excusive polling for San Diego's KGTV 10News and the San Diego Tribune:

Today, May 17, three weeks until votes are counted, Newsom outpolls his nearest rivals for Governor by a margin of nearly 6:1. Newsom takes 40% today, well ahead of 25 challengers, none of whom break 7%. Three Republicans – Businessman Ronald Anderson, state Senator Ronald Dahle, and attorney Shawn Collins – along with one Democrat, restaurant owner Tony Fanara, are tightly grouped together in the 5% to 7% range; two more Republicans, a Green Party candidate, and a candidate with no party preference each are at 2%; no one else breaks 1%. 18% of voters are undecided.

Padilla, unusually, appears on the ballot twice in this election; in both cases, his nearest opponents are far behind. In his first appearance on the ballot, for the full 6-year term which begins in 2023, Padilla takes 36% of the vote. Republican James Bradley, a health care industry executive, is at 9%, ahead of 21 others. Two Republicans, CEO Jon Elist and attorney Mark Meuser, are each at 4%; two others, podiatrist Myron Hall and businesswoman Sarah Sun Liew, take 3%; everyone else is at 2% or less.

Padilla is also well in front in his other race, to serve out the rest of the term he was appointed to fill when its former holder, Kamala Harris, resigned to become Vice President. Padilla is at 40% in this smaller, 8-person contest, where Mark Meuser is at 11%, James Bradley is at 8%, and Jon Elist is at 7%. Democrat Dan O'Dowd, who polls at 1% in the larger race for the full term, is at 6% here.

Full results follow ...
 
About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 975 California adults online 05/13/22 through 05/15/22, using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 815 were identified as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 709 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already cast their ballot or to be likely to do so by the June 7 primary deadline. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of California?
975 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryMost Influence Vote2020 VoteParent Of Child AbortionRoe V. Wade Vote ImpactReligionEvangelicalEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlready CertainProbableCOVID ReInflatioThe EconHealth CAbortionCrime / Climate TrumpBidenYesNoLegal AlLegal WiIllegal Always ISupporteOpposersNo DiffeCatholicProtestaOtherNo ReligYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Yes84%86%81%73%85%88%92%78%90%87%**76%77%93%91%74%95%82%82%94%94%88%82%94%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%95%93%91%82%86%84%88%87%100%100%100%83%89%83%81%93%83%77%82%90%80%82%89%90%76%82%88%74%82%88%77%83%
No15%12%17%22%15%11%8%19%10%12%**21%17%6%9%25%5%17%15%4%6%11%15%5%----------4%6%9%16%13%15%11%10%---15%11%13%17%7%16%22%15%8%19%16%8%9%22%15%11%23%16%11%21%13%
Not Sure2%2%2%5%0%1%0%3%1%1%**3%6%1%1%1%0%1%2%2%0%1%2%1%----------1%1%0%2%1%0%1%2%---2%0%3%2%0%1%1%3%1%1%1%3%2%2%2%1%3%2%1%2%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%49%51%28%25%25%22%54%46%66%4%21%10%25%47%21%14%15%34%16%12%29%34%28%20%55%11%9%14%19%7%13%6%8%27%52%34%66%40%25%19%9%54%22%16%32%18%16%34%25%67%32%31%38%36%29%34%55%45%41%46%13%23%41%20%16%
 
2California will hold a primary election for Governor, for United States Senate, and for other offices on June 7th. Not everyone makes the time to vote in a primary. Which best describes you? Have you already cast a ballot in the primary? Are you certain to vote in the primary? Will you probably vote? Are the chances you will vote about 50/50? Or will you probably not vote?
815 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryMost Influence Vote2020 VoteParent Of Child AbortionRoe V. Wade Vote ImpactReligionEvangelicalEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlready CertainProbableCOVID ReInflatioThe EconHealth CAbortionCrime / Climate TrumpBidenYesNoLegal AlLegal WiIllegal Always ISupporteOpposersNo DiffeCatholicProtestaOtherNo ReligYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Already Voted20%24%15%31%20%13%14%25%14%22%**18%7%20%25%8%44%15%13%17%22%30%13%19%100%0%0%45%11%18%31%23%23%16%19%22%31%13%24%12%20%24%23%23%21%27%25%12%12%36%14%19%16%23%17%18%23%23%15%29%13%14%14%25%15%18%
Certain To Vote 54%50%58%31%54%62%69%43%65%59%**37%47%63%53%51%38%64%50%65%62%50%50%64%0%100%0%36%71%69%66%71%62%67%58%58%43%61%54%60%52%41%65%62%60%48%59%56%56%48%56%43%56%60%49%55%58%60%45%46%61%54%55%47%59%66%
Will Probably Vote11%13%9%14%14%11%4%14%8%8%**20%15%6%12%13%8%10%17%5%7%9%17%6%0%0%100%14%14%13%4%5%10%12%9%11%13%10%8%12%13%12%11%12%13%13%5%15%9%8%12%10%13%10%11%11%10%8%15%12%9%11%10%14%10%5%
50/50 Chance9%8%11%10%9%10%8%9%9%5%**19%21%8%6%18%8%10%12%7%5%8%12%6%0%0%0%-------11%7%9%9%7%8%12%17%---8%8%9%12%5%11%16%8%5%13%10%5%6%13%9%9%13%11%8%11%7%
Probably Will Not Vote4%4%4%8%2%2%4%5%3%4%**2%5%1%2%8%1%1%7%3%0%1%7%2%0%0%0%-------2%1%3%4%4%6%1%1%---2%1%3%8%2%5%9%3%1%5%3%3%2%7%2%5%5%5%4%4%3%
Not Sure3%2%3%7%1%2%0%4%1%2%**4%5%2%2%1%2%0%2%3%3%1%2%3%---4%4%0%0%1%4%4%2%2%1%3%2%2%2%4%1%2%6%1%1%5%3%1%3%3%4%1%5%2%1%1%5%2%3%3%5%3%1%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%51%49%25%25%26%24%50%50%68%4%19%9%27%51%18%16%15%34%18%14%30%34%32%20%55%11%9%14%19%7%13%6%8%30%58%36%64%41%25%20%9%54%22%16%32%19%16%33%28%67%29%30%41%35%29%37%59%41%40%48%12%23%43%18%16%
 
3In the Primary for Governor of California, how do you vote?

(Candidate names were displayed to respondents alphabetized within party groupings. Respondents were shown candidate names, party preferences, and ballot description; ballot descriptions not shown here for space considerations.)

709 Likely Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryMost Influence Vote2020 VoteParent Of Child AbortionRoe V. Wade Vote ImpactReligionEvangelicalEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlready CertainProbableCOVID ReInflatioThe EconHealth CAbortionCrime / Climate TrumpBidenYesNoLegal AlLegal WiIllegal Always ISupporteOpposersNo DiffeCatholicProtestaOtherNo ReligYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Ronald A. Anderson (R)7%9%4%14%7%5%2%10%3%8%**3%4%12%5%5%17%3%7%3%1%10%7%2%16%3%6%10%10%4%6%5%10%2%14%3%10%5%9%7%3%8%7%9%4%12%5%3%4%13%4%8%7%6%6%10%5%7%6%10%4%8%7%8%4%6%
Shawn Collins (R)5%7%4%10%4%4%4%7%4%6%**3%5%10%3%6%12%5%5%3%3%9%5%3%7%5%5%4%4%10%5%0%11%5%10%3%7%4%5%3%9%7%2%10%10%8%4%7%3%11%3%2%7%6%5%5%6%6%5%7%4%6%4%7%2%6%
Brian Dahle (R)7%6%7%2%5%10%11%4%10%8%**3%4%18%2%4%15%20%2%1%1%18%2%1%10%7%4%8%7%9%0%3%13%3%17%2%5%8%2%10%11%8%2%14%12%3%13%7%7%8%7%6%8%6%5%10%6%8%6%3%8%14%15%5%6%3%
Ron Jones (R)2%3%1%1%4%2%1%3%1%2%**2%2%4%1%2%4%2%1%1%2%3%1%1%2%2%3%4%3%2%3%0%0%0%4%1%2%2%2%1%2%3%1%4%0%1%2%4%1%2%1%2%1%2%2%2%2%2%1%1%3%0%3%2%1%1%
Jenny Rae Le Roux (R)1%2%1%1%1%1%3%1%2%1%**2%0%3%0%1%1%4%2%0%0%3%2%0%1%2%1%0%4%2%0%1%0%0%3%0%2%1%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%3%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%4%0%
David Lozano (R)2%2%2%2%1%4%1%2%3%3%**1%0%7%0%1%6%3%2%1%0%4%2%0%3%2%1%3%2%3%3%1%0%0%5%1%5%1%1%1%5%6%1%6%1%3%2%2%1%2%2%3%2%2%0%1%4%3%0%2%3%1%1%1%7%2%
Daniel R. Mercuri (R)1%0%2%2%2%1%0%2%0%1%**0%5%4%0%0%0%4%1%0%0%2%1%0%0%1%1%0%0%3%0%2%0%0%3%0%2%0%0%2%1%4%1%3%0%1%3%0%1%0%1%3%0%0%1%1%1%1%1%0%2%0%3%0%1%0%
Cristian Raul Morales (R)1%1%0%1%0%1%0%1%1%1%**1%2%1%0%1%1%1%1%0%0%1%1%0%0%1%0%0%2%1%0%0%0%0%2%0%1%1%1%0%0%2%0%1%1%1%1%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%0%1%1%1%0%1%2%2%0%1%0%
Robert C. Newman II (R)1%1%1%3%0%1%0%2%1%0%**3%2%3%0%1%1%6%0%0%0%3%0%0%3%0%2%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%2%1%2%1%1%1%2%2%1%2%2%1%1%4%0%1%1%1%2%1%2%1%0%1%2%1%1%0%2%1%1%0%
Lonnie Sortor (R)1%1%1%1%1%1%0%1%1%1%**0%0%2%0%0%2%1%0%0%0%2%0%0%0%1%0%0%3%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%1%1%0%0%0%2%0%1%0%0%1%0%1%1%1%0%1%1%1%0%1%1%0%0%0%3%1%0%2%0%
Anthony Trimino (R)1%0%1%0%1%1%1%0%1%1%**0%0%2%0%0%3%0%0%0%0%2%0%0%0%1%0%3%1%0%0%0%2%0%2%0%1%0%0%0%1%5%0%3%0%0%2%1%0%0%1%0%1%1%0%0%1%0%1%0%1%2%1%1%0%1%
Major Williams (R)1%2%1%1%3%1%1%2%1%1%**2%0%2%0%1%0%4%1%1%0%2%1%0%0%2%0%3%1%2%0%0%0%0%3%0%1%1%1%1%2%2%1%1%4%1%0%1%2%0%2%2%2%1%2%1%1%0%3%1%2%0%0%2%2%0%
Leo S. Zacky (R)1%1%0%1%0%1%2%0%1%1%**0%2%1%1%1%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%2%1%1%0%1%0%1%2%0%0%1%3%1%0%1%1%0%1%0%1%1%1%2%0%1%1%1%1%0%1%1%0%2%
Anthony "Tony" Fanara (D)5%7%3%6%9%4%0%8%2%5%**6%3%0%8%4%8%3%4%2%7%6%4%4%6%5%5%2%9%4%4%1%9%10%0%7%11%1%5%5%3%7%5%4%3%9%1%4%3%9%3%9%3%5%5%3%6%5%4%7%4%2%4%5%5%5%
Gavin Newsom (D)40%35%46%38%34%39%50%36%44%40%**39%48%10%60%33%14%12%40%71%68%13%40%69%40%42%37%37%32%36%56%75%21%59%5%61%34%44%54%39%30%18%57%21%23%37%38%39%45%29%47%35%39%44%39%41%40%40%40%42%40%35%29%44%36%51%
Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato (D)1%1%1%3%1%1%0%2%0%1%**1%0%0%2%0%0%0%2%0%2%0%2%1%0%1%3%0%1%2%0%0%0%2%0%1%1%1%0%4%0%2%0%3%3%2%0%1%1%2%1%1%2%1%2%0%1%1%2%1%1%1%3%1%1%0%
Joel Ventresca (D)1%1%1%1%2%1%0%1%1%1%**1%0%0%2%1%0%0%2%1%1%0%2%1%1%1%1%3%1%1%0%1%4%0%0%2%2%1%2%1%0%0%1%0%1%1%1%0%1%1%1%0%1%2%1%1%1%0%2%2%1%0%0%2%1%1%
Heather Collins (G)2%1%3%7%1%0%1%4%1%3%**1%1%2%3%1%0%1%3%2%4%1%3%3%0%3%4%4%5%0%0%3%1%4%0%3%3%2%2%5%1%1%3%2%0%1%0%4%4%3%1%1%4%1%3%2%1%2%3%3%2%1%5%2%0%3%
Luis Javier Rodriguez (G)0%-----------------------------------------------------------------
Serge Fiankan0%-----------------------------------------------------------------
James G. Hanink0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%**0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Woodrow "Woody" Sanders III0%-----------------------------------------------------------------
Reinette Senum0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%**0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%
Frederic C. Schultz0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%**0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Michael Shellenberger2%3%1%0%0%4%3%0%4%2%**0%2%2%1%7%0%6%3%0%1%3%3%0%1%3%0%1%2%1%0%2%5%4%3%1%1%2%1%1%4%4%1%1%5%2%3%0%2%2%2%1%1%3%2%1%3%3%1%1%3%0%1%1%5%3%
Bradley Zink0%-----------------------------------------------------------------
Undecided18%14%22%9%22%19%22%16%20%15%**29%21%18%12%30%15%22%20%12%9%18%20%11%8%19%28%18%12%18%22%5%25%10%23%13%9%23%13%16%24%18%13%14%25%14%21%19%20%14%20%25%16%15%21%16%17%16%21%15%19%24%19%18%19%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Primary Voters100%51%49%24%26%26%24%50%50%72%3%17%8%28%54%15%17%15%32%18%15%32%32%33%23%64%13%9%14%19%7%13%6%8%30%61%36%64%42%25%20%9%54%22%16%33%20%16%31%30%65%25%31%44%33%29%39%62%38%41%48%11%22%44%18%17%
 
4California voters will also vote twice for United States Senate - first in a primary for a full term in office, beginning next January, and then in a primary for the remainder of the current term, until next January.

First, in the Primary for the full term in office for United States Senate, how do you vote?
709 Likely Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryMost Influence Vote2020 VoteParent Of Child AbortionRoe V. Wade Vote ImpactReligionEvangelicalEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlready CertainProbableCOVID ReInflatioThe EconHealth CAbortionCrime / Climate TrumpBidenYesNoLegal AlLegal WiIllegal Always ISupporteOpposersNo DiffeCatholicProtestaOtherNo ReligYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
James P. Bradley (R)9%11%7%12%12%8%5%12%6%11%**4%5%20%4%6%19%15%7%3%1%17%7%2%15%7%4%9%13%12%6%1%15%4%20%4%12%7%8%7%12%14%7%16%10%13%10%10%4%15%7%7%11%9%4%13%10%9%9%11%6%13%13%9%6%8%
Jon Elist (R)4%6%2%8%3%4%1%6%3%5%**2%2%8%3%2%8%8%4%2%2%8%4%2%12%2%3%1%5%3%4%8%3%3%9%2%7%3%5%2%3%7%3%5%6%5%4%1%4%6%3%2%4%6%3%4%5%5%3%5%3%6%2%5%8%2%
Myron L. Hall (R)3%3%3%7%4%1%1%5%1%3%**3%5%2%3%4%6%1%3%0%5%4%3%3%4%2%3%5%0%5%0%0%6%4%3%2%5%2%3%5%4%3%1%9%3%4%1%5%3%5%2%4%3%3%5%3%2%3%4%4%2%2%3%5%2%1%
Sarah Sun Liew (R)3%3%3%2%2%5%3%2%4%3%**3%2%6%1%4%3%5%4%3%1%4%4%2%2%4%2%2%6%3%0%0%0%0%8%1%4%3%2%6%1%5%3%5%2%3%5%2%2%3%2%5%5%1%5%3%2%3%3%2%3%8%5%2%5%1%
Robert George Lucero, Jr (R)2%2%1%1%2%2%1%2%2%2%**1%2%3%1%1%1%3%2%2%1%2%2%1%1%1%2%4%1%2%0%1%0%0%3%1%1%2%2%2%2%2%1%0%6%2%1%2%2%1%2%1%3%1%2%1%2%2%1%2%2%0%2%2%1%0%
Mark P. Meuser (R)4%4%4%2%3%4%4%3%4%4%**4%3%10%0%4%8%10%2%1%0%9%2%0%4%4%3%2%8%5%3%2%1%0%9%1%4%3%1%3%7%11%0%8%8%4%3%6%2%4%4%2%4%4%2%5%4%4%2%1%6%5%5%3%4%4%
Enrique Petris (R)1%0%1%1%0%0%2%0%1%1%**2%0%2%0%1%1%4%0%0%0%2%0%0%1%1%0%0%0%2%0%0%2%0%1%0%0%1%0%2%0%0%0%0%2%0%1%0%1%0%1%2%1%0%0%2%1%0%1%1%0%3%1%1%1%0%
Chuck Smith (R)2%4%1%1%1%5%2%1%4%2%**0%5%5%0%5%7%3%2%0%0%5%2%0%3%2%2%0%3%4%0%2%2%0%7%0%2%3%1%1%4%6%1%6%1%0%4%3%3%2%2%4%1%3%3%1%3%2%2%1%4%0%3%1%4%2%
Carlos Guillermo Tapia (R)1%1%0%1%0%0%1%1%1%1%**0%2%1%0%1%1%0%1%1%1%0%1%1%0%1%1%2%0%0%0%0%2%0%1%0%1%0%0%1%1%0%0%1%2%1%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%1%0%0%1%2%1%1%1%0%
Cordie Williams (R)1%1%1%2%1%0%2%1%1%2%**1%0%4%0%1%3%3%1%0%0%3%1%0%0%2%0%5%0%3%3%1%1%0%3%0%1%1%0%2%2%0%1%2%1%0%2%2%2%1%2%3%1%1%0%2%2%2%1%0%2%0%2%1%0%1%
Akinyemi Agbede (D)2%3%0%2%4%0%0%3%0%1%**1%3%0%3%1%1%0%1%2%4%0%1%3%2%1%1%1%3%1%5%2%1%2%0%2%3%1%2%1%0%6%2%1%0%3%2%0%0%4%1%1%1%2%1%2%2%2%1%2%1%0%1%3%1%0%
Alex Padilla (D)36%32%39%27%27%38%51%27%44%36%**34%31%7%53%32%15%12%39%54%55%14%39%55%33%40%28%36%28%32%40%67%23%63%2%55%34%37%48%38%25%7%50%18%20%33%36%34%39%28%40%33%33%39%35%34%38%38%31%38%36%26%26%37%36%44%
Dan O'Dowd (D)1%1%1%2%2%1%0%2%0%1%**2%0%0%2%1%0%0%1%3%2%0%1%2%2%1%1%1%1%0%4%1%0%1%0%2%1%1%2%1%1%1%2%1%1%2%1%1%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%1%2%0%0%
Douglas Howard Pierce (D)2%2%3%7%2%1%0%4%0%2%**3%2%0%4%1%1%2%2%3%4%1%2%4%4%2%3%4%3%1%8%0%7%2%0%4%3%2%2%2%4%4%3%2%1%4%1%2%3%3%3%3%2%2%3%3%2%2%3%3%2%2%4%2%2%3%
Obaidul Huq Pirjada (D)2%1%3%3%3%1%0%3%1%2%**0%1%0%2%2%1%0%0%2%6%1%0%4%2%2%1%5%1%0%5%0%1%6%0%2%4%0%2%1%0%4%3%1%0%3%0%2%0%4%0%1%0%3%0%2%3%2%1%3%1%0%0%3%1%0%
Timothy J Ursich (D)1%2%1%4%2%0%0%3%0%1%**2%2%0%2%0%4%0%1%0%2%2%1%1%3%0%2%1%0%2%1%0%3%3%0%2%3%0%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%0%1%3%1%1%3%0%1%0%2%2%2%1%2%1%0%2%2%0%0%
James "Henk" Conn (G)1%1%2%5%0%0%0%2%0%2%**0%0%2%1%0%1%0%2%0%2%0%2%1%0%1%2%4%2%1%0%3%0%0%0%1%2%1%2%1%0%0%2%1%0%0%0%2%2%1%1%0%3%0%2%1%0%1%2%2%1%0%2%1%1%2%
Pamela Elizondo (G)0%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%**1%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%0%1%0%1%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%1%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%3%0%0%0%2%
John Thompson Parker (PF)0%0%1%1%0%1%0%0%0%0%**1%0%1%0%0%0%1%1%0%0%1%1%0%0%0%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%1%0%1%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%1%1%0%1%1%0%1%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%0%1%0%
Daphne Bradford0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%**0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%
Eleanor Garcia0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%**1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Don J. Grundmann0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%**0%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%3%0%0%1%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%1%0%0%0%
Deon D. Jenkins0%-----------------------------------------------------------------
Undecided24%21%27%13%30%26%26%22%26%21%**35%34%29%17%31%20%32%25%25%10%26%25%18%12%25%37%19%24%23%19%12%32%11%32%17%12%31%18%23%30%25%19%20%33%20%27%24%27%17%27%28%25%21%31%21%21%20%30%20%27%29%23%21%27%29%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Primary Voters100%51%49%24%26%26%24%50%50%72%3%17%8%28%54%15%17%15%32%18%15%32%32%33%23%64%13%9%14%19%7%13%6%8%30%61%36%64%42%25%20%9%54%22%16%33%20%16%31%30%65%25%31%44%33%29%39%62%38%41%48%11%22%44%18%17%
 
5Next, in the Primary for the remainder of the current term in office for United States Senate, how do you vote?
709 Likely Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryMost Influence Vote2020 VoteParent Of Child AbortionRoe V. Wade Vote ImpactReligionEvangelicalEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlready CertainProbableCOVID ReInflatioThe EconHealth CAbortionCrime / Climate TrumpBidenYesNoLegal AlLegal WiIllegal Always ISupporteOpposersNo DiffeCatholicProtestaOtherNo ReligYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
James P. Bradley (R)8%9%8%10%10%9%5%10%7%10%**4%5%18%4%6%11%17%8%4%4%14%8%4%11%8%6%2%9%14%6%1%11%5%20%3%10%8%7%11%9%6%6%15%8%10%11%8%5%12%6%5%14%7%7%9%9%8%10%10%7%12%10%9%8%5%
Jon Elist (R)7%10%4%10%6%8%4%8%6%8%**5%4%15%3%5%14%11%5%1%5%13%5%3%9%6%5%6%12%9%2%2%2%5%14%4%11%5%5%4%6%23%4%13%8%10%7%7%4%13%5%8%7%6%4%7%9%7%6%8%6%8%9%6%8%5%
Myron L. Hall (R)3%5%1%6%3%3%0%5%2%3%**3%6%5%2%1%6%4%3%2%0%5%3%1%10%1%2%9%1%3%0%4%0%4%5%2%6%2%4%3%4%2%3%4%2%5%4%0%3%5%2%4%2%3%3%4%3%4%1%3%3%4%3%4%3%2%
Mark P. Meuser (R)11%11%10%8%11%13%11%9%12%13%**5%6%26%1%19%24%21%10%0%3%23%10%2%12%12%5%13%15%11%7%5%18%2%26%2%10%11%5%12%17%22%4%19%24%7%16%16%8%10%11%13%8%12%10%11%11%12%9%6%14%16%17%8%12%9%
Dan O'Dowd (D)6%8%4%12%9%1%1%10%1%6%**5%4%0%9%5%6%4%3%6%14%5%3%9%9%5%6%11%6%4%11%7%9%4%1%8%11%3%7%3%7%9%6%7%4%9%1%4%6%10%4%3%4%9%3%7%8%6%5%10%4%0%1%10%5%2%
Alex Padilla (D)40%37%43%36%30%42%52%33%47%39%**42%39%10%59%34%21%13%45%57%62%17%45%59%39%43%37%34%28%37%54%68%31%66%4%61%42%39%54%40%28%14%55%22%23%37%38%39%44%35%43%39%39%42%41%41%39%42%37%45%38%29%33%41%39%48%
Timothy Ursich Jr. (D)2%1%2%3%2%1%0%2%1%1%**2%2%1%2%2%0%2%3%2%1%1%3%1%1%2%4%3%0%1%4%2%0%4%0%3%1%2%1%3%2%0%2%1%0%1%0%3%2%2%2%0%2%3%1%1%3%2%1%2%2%0%3%2%0%1%
Daphne Bradford1%1%2%1%2%0%2%2%1%1%**3%0%2%1%2%1%3%2%2%0%2%2%1%1%1%3%2%4%1%0%0%3%0%3%1%1%2%1%3%0%5%2%1%2%2%0%2%2%0%2%3%2%1%3%2%0%1%3%1%1%2%2%2%1%0%
Undecided22%18%26%13%27%22%24%21%23%19%**30%32%23%18%26%17%25%22%26%10%21%22%19%9%23%32%20%26%21%16%12%26%9%27%17%8%29%17%22%26%19%18%17%27%18%23%20%26%14%25%26%23%19%30%18%18%18%28%15%26%30%22%19%24%28%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Primary Voters100%51%49%24%26%26%24%50%50%72%3%17%8%28%54%15%17%15%32%18%15%32%32%33%23%64%13%9%14%19%7%13%6%8%30%61%36%64%42%25%20%9%54%22%16%33%20%16%31%30%65%25%31%44%33%29%39%62%38%41%48%11%22%44%18%17%
 
6Which of the following issues is likely to most influence your vote heading into the 2022 elections?
709 Likely Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryMost Influence Vote2020 VoteParent Of Child AbortionRoe V. Wade Vote ImpactReligionEvangelicalEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlready CertainProbableCOVID ReInflatioThe EconHealth CAbortionCrime / Climate TrumpBidenYesNoLegal AlLegal WiIllegal Always ISupporteOpposersNo DiffeCatholicProtestaOtherNo ReligYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
COVID Response9%8%10%15%10%2%7%13%5%10%**6%4%5%10%8%17%2%5%6%17%10%5%11%17%5%10%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%5%10%12%6%8%4%11%18%8%10%8%12%9%9%5%13%7%9%10%7%6%6%12%10%6%12%6%7%6%13%4%5%
Inflation14%18%8%11%11%19%12%11%16%13%**16%14%17%11%18%13%17%14%13%4%15%14%9%7%16%15%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%18%11%7%17%10%20%15%9%12%17%12%13%11%15%15%7%16%20%10%12%20%14%8%11%18%10%14%22%18%11%14%14%
Taxes5%6%3%6%4%8%1%5%5%4%**6%7%10%2%3%4%10%7%0%2%6%7%1%5%4%6%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%7%3%4%5%3%3%8%7%2%9%9%6%4%8%2%7%4%4%6%4%3%7%4%5%4%4%5%3%6%5%6%2%
The Economy19%20%18%21%23%14%19%22%16%19%**17%27%24%18%17%18%22%23%18%15%20%23%17%15%21%20%0%0%100%0%0%0%0%24%18%22%18%18%19%23%21%18%18%29%19%18%21%19%15%21%12%23%21%11%18%27%20%18%19%18%24%21%17%18%24%
Health Care7%5%9%8%8%5%8%8%6%9%**2%2%3%10%6%4%3%6%7%18%4%6%12%10%8%2%0%0%0%100%0%0%0%3%10%9%6%9%4%5%7%11%3%1%7%4%6%10%10%6%7%6%8%6%11%6%7%8%9%6%2%3%7%8%11%
Foreign Affairs2%2%2%2%3%1%2%2%1%2%**0%0%2%2%2%2%1%2%0%3%2%2%1%3%1%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%3%1%2%2%1%3%2%2%1%3%3%2%3%0%2%2%2%0%3%2%2%1%2%2%2%2%2%0%3%1%2%1%
Abortion13%7%19%14%9%16%12%12%14%13%**11%13%10%16%6%11%9%10%21%17%10%10%19%13%14%5%0%0%0%0%100%0%0%4%19%14%12%22%7%4%9%19%9%2%11%16%9%14%11%14%9%14%14%13%12%13%13%12%13%13%11%7%15%15%12%
Crime / Public Safety6%6%5%2%7%3%11%4%7%7%**2%5%9%4%7%7%10%5%4%1%8%5%2%6%6%5%0%0%0%0%0%100%0%9%4%6%6%6%7%6%5%4%8%9%4%7%7%6%7%5%4%4%8%3%7%7%8%2%6%6%5%5%5%7%6%
Housing4%4%4%4%5%6%0%5%3%3%**6%6%4%3%5%5%2%6%2%2%4%6%2%5%3%7%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%5%3%4%4%5%5%2%3%3%3%5%4%3%6%4%2%5%6%5%2%6%4%2%2%6%4%3%7%3%4%8%2%
Education3%3%2%5%3%1%3%4%2%3%**4%2%2%3%3%1%5%1%7%3%3%1%5%4%2%4%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%3%3%3%2%6%3%0%3%4%0%2%3%3%3%3%3%3%2%3%0%7%2%3%2%2%3%4%6%2%0%5%
Border Security4%5%4%1%4%8%5%2%6%5%**3%1%7%2%7%9%10%5%0%0%10%5%0%3%5%6%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%11%2%4%5%1%8%6%6%2%8%8%5%6%4%3%7%3%5%6%3%7%3%3%5%4%4%5%4%4%4%10%1%
Climate Change8%8%7%7%5%10%9%6%10%8%**8%11%3%9%9%5%3%9%10%11%4%9%10%6%8%8%0%0%0%0%0%0%100%3%11%8%8%9%10%4%5%12%4%2%8%5%5%10%9%8%5%6%11%8%4%10%9%5%6%10%5%5%9%5%10%
Other1%1%1%2%0%2%1%1%1%1%**3%0%1%1%3%3%1%1%2%0%2%1%1%1%1%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%1%1%1%0%3%0%3%1%1%2%0%1%2%2%1%2%1%2%1%3%0%0%1%2%1%2%0%4%1%0%0%
Not Sure7%6%8%3%8%7%9%5%8%4%**16%8%4%8%6%1%4%6%9%7%3%6%8%6%6%10%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%6%5%4%8%5%2%8%4%4%2%11%6%12%5%5%8%5%13%4%4%12%5%3%3%12%7%6%8%10%6%3%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Primary Voters100%51%49%24%26%26%24%50%50%72%3%17%8%28%54%15%17%15%32%18%15%32%32%33%23%64%13%9%14%19%7%13%6%8%30%61%36%64%42%25%20%9%54%22%16%33%20%16%31%30%65%25%31%44%33%29%39%62%38%41%48%11%22%44%18%17%
 
7The Supreme Court ruling Roe v. Wade legalized abortion in the United States in 1973. The Supreme Court appears ready to overturn the decision, turning the issue of abortion rights back to the states. Does this make you more likely to vote for candidates who support abortion rights? Candidates who oppose abortion? Or does it make no difference either way?
709 Likely Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryMost Influence Vote2020 VoteParent Of Child AbortionRoe V. Wade Vote ImpactReligionEvangelicalEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlready CertainProbableCOVID ReInflatioThe EconHealth CAbortionCrime / Climate TrumpBidenYesNoLegal AlLegal WiIllegal Always ISupporteOpposersNo DiffeCatholicProtestaOtherNo ReligYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Candidates Who Support54%44%64%59%51%51%55%55%53%55%**50%53%29%70%51%35%22%58%73%80%29%58%76%56%56%46%53%48%49%80%81%38%82%24%72%56%53%82%60%15%20%100%0%0%54%43%44%67%43%61%51%53%56%49%57%55%57%49%59%52%45%39%55%55%70%
Candidates Who Oppose22%28%15%22%25%25%15%23%20%24%**17%16%40%13%18%49%37%14%12%8%43%14%10%23%22%21%25%27%21%10%16%32%11%40%13%27%19%7%15%48%61%0%100%0%22%35%26%11%35%14%17%21%24%19%20%25%23%19%19%25%19%25%24%23%10%
Makes No Difference16%19%13%14%16%18%17%15%17%15%**18%21%23%11%24%12%29%20%6%9%20%20%8%15%16%17%16%15%24%2%3%26%5%28%10%13%18%8%19%24%15%0%0%100%17%15%17%16%13%18%20%17%14%18%16%16%15%19%15%17%21%28%13%14%12%
Not Sure8%9%7%5%7%6%13%7%10%6%**15%9%8%7%7%5%12%8%8%2%8%8%5%6%6%16%6%10%6%8%0%4%1%8%5%4%10%4%6%13%4%0%0%0%7%8%14%6%8%7%11%9%6%14%7%4%5%14%8%7%15%9%8%8%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Primary Voters100%51%49%24%26%26%24%50%50%72%3%17%8%28%54%15%17%15%32%18%15%32%32%33%23%64%13%9%14%19%7%13%6%8%30%61%36%64%42%25%20%9%54%22%16%33%20%16%31%30%65%25%31%44%33%29%39%62%38%41%48%11%22%44%18%17%
 
8How much confidence do you have that votes cast in the June 7 primary will be counted accurately?
815 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely PrimaryMost Influence Vote2020 VoteParent Of Child AbortionRoe V. Wade Vote ImpactReligionEvangelicalEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlready CertainProbableCOVID ReInflatioThe EconHealth CAbortionCrime / Climate TrumpBidenYesNoLegal AlLegal WiIllegal Always ISupporteOpposersNo DiffeCatholicProtestaOtherNo ReligYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Full Confidence46%47%45%48%44%41%53%46%46%49%**43%30%28%62%35%46%26%42%58%71%36%42%64%67%50%26%54%42%40%70%74%39%73%21%65%53%43%62%41%32%36%67%32%32%58%41%33%44%54%44%39%38%57%38%46%54%54%36%59%39%32%35%51%39%58%
Some Confidence26%26%27%26%27%25%27%27%26%25%**24%40%28%23%32%20%31%31%25%20%25%31%23%16%25%40%22%30%33%21%15%38%24%31%23%25%27%24%35%28%17%22%30%30%21%28%36%26%22%28%25%32%23%24%29%26%25%28%22%31%23%30%24%29%24%
Little Confidence14%15%14%12%16%19%9%14%15%14%**15%14%26%7%18%14%25%17%6%2%19%17%4%6%15%19%5%22%19%8%6%14%2%28%6%12%16%6%17%19%22%7%20%28%11%18%14%15%14%15%18%16%10%16%14%13%13%16%9%17%20%17%11%22%11%
No Confidence8%8%8%9%8%10%6%9%8%8%**7%8%16%3%8%19%15%3%4%5%17%3%4%5%7%7%14%4%7%0%1%5%0%18%2%7%9%4%6%13%20%2%16%10%7%7%11%8%5%9%12%8%5%12%7%6%6%11%5%9%15%13%8%7%5%
Not Sure5%5%6%5%5%6%5%5%5%4%**10%8%1%5%5%2%3%7%7%2%2%7%5%5%3%8%6%1%1%1%3%5%1%2%4%3%5%4%1%8%5%2%2%0%3%6%6%6%6%4%6%6%4%11%3%1%2%9%6%4%10%5%7%4%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%51%49%25%25%26%24%50%50%68%4%19%9%27%51%18%16%15%34%18%14%30%34%32%20%55%11%9%14%19%7%13%6%8%30%58%36%64%41%25%20%9%54%22%16%32%19%16%33%28%67%29%30%41%35%29%37%59%41%40%48%12%23%43%18%16%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.