| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16002 |
| Six Months from KY Senate Primaries, Mongiardo Has Advantage in Dem Support, While Paul Catches Grayson on GOP Side: In a Republican Primary today, 11/03/09, six months from the vote and one year until the subsequent general election, Rand Paul and Trey Grayson are effectively even, according to this exclusive WHAS-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 11 weeks ago, Paul is up 9 points; Grayson is down 5. Paul, an eye surgeon, political activist, and son of Texas Republican Congressman Ron Paul, leads among men, conservatives, Republicans, and in North Central Kentucky. Grayson, Kentucky's Secretary of State, has a slight advantage among women, in Western Kentucky and in the Louisville area. 1 in 3 voters are not today behind either Paul or Grayson; expect fluidity in the coming months.
In a Democratic primary today, Dan Mongiardo is atop Jack Conway. Mongiardo, Kentucky's Lieutenant Governor, leads by 2:1 among liberals, 3:1 in Western Kentucky, and 5:1 in Eastern Kentucky. Conway, Kentucky's Attorney General, ties Mongiardo among conservatives, Democrats and is up 2:1 in Greater Louisville. 1 in 3 Democrat primary voters are not today behind either Mongiardo or Conway; expect fluidity in the coming months. One Year From November 2010 General Election: After asking Republican likely primary voters which Republican they will vote for in the primary, and after asking Democratic likely primary voters which Democrat they will vote for in the primary, SurveyUSA asked all registered KY voters, regardless of party affiliation or likeliness to vote in a primary, to think ahead to several possible November 2010 general election match-ups.
In a contest between Republican Grayson and Democrat Conway, Grayson wins 43% to 39%, slightly tighter than 11 weeks ago.
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| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,000 KY adults 10/30/09 through 11/02/09. Of them, 1,770 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 448 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the May 2010 GOP Primary; 602 were determined to be likely to vote in the May 2010 Democratic primary. |
 | If the Republican Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Trey Grayson? Rand Paul? Bill Johnson? Brian Douglas Oerther? Roger Thoney? Or another Republican? |
| 448 Likely GOP Primary Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Registration | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Louisvil | North Ce | Eastern | |
| Grayson | 32% | 32% | 33% | 43% | 27% | 36% | 30% | 31% | 33% | 32% | ** | ** | ** | 32% | ** | ** | 31% | 36% | 45% | 35% | 30% | 34% | 31% | 25% | 33% | 35% | 33% | 30% | 28% | 34% | 33% | 32% | 30% | 35% |
| Paul | 35% | 40% | 29% | 40% | 34% | 31% | 37% | 36% | 33% | 35% | ** | ** | ** | 35% | ** | ** | 39% | 24% | 20% | 36% | 34% | 34% | 33% | 42% | 37% | 25% | 35% | 31% | 33% | 36% | 28% | 29% | 43% | 38% |
| Johnson | 2% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 2% | ** | ** | 2% | 0% | 12% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| Oerther | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | ** | ** | ** | 1% | ** | ** | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| Thoney | 3% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 3% | ** | ** | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| Other | 10% | 10% | 10% | 2% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 10% | ** | ** | ** | 10% | ** | ** | 9% | 13% | 5% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 8% | 7% |
| Undecided | 18% | 15% | 21% | 15% | 17% | 18% | 21% | 16% | 19% | 18% | ** | ** | ** | 18% | ** | ** | 16% | 22% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 17% | 16% | 22% | 16% | 20% | 15% | 24% | 20% | 15% | 19% | 20% | 16% | 15% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 14% | 36% | 30% | 20% | 51% | 49% | 98% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 69% | 21% | 6% | 48% | 52% | 66% | 23% | 11% | 76% | 18% | 68% | 28% | 40% | 60% | 26% | 25% | 32% | 17% |
 | If the Democratic Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Jack Conway? Dan Mongiardo? Darlene Fitzgerald Price? Maurice Marion Sweeney? Lillie E. Miller-Johnson? Or another Democrat? |
| 602 Likely Democratic Primary Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Registration | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Louisvil | North Ce | Eastern | |
| Conway | 28% | 27% | 28% | 28% | 27% | 27% | 29% | 27% | 28% | 27% | 32% | ** | ** | ** | 28% | ** | 30% | 30% | 24% | 31% | 25% | 27% | 28% | 26% | 25% | 30% | 24% | 32% | 23% | 30% | 14% | 46% | 29% | 13% |
| Mongiardo | 39% | 39% | 39% | 49% | 39% | 36% | 38% | 43% | 37% | 40% | 31% | ** | ** | ** | 39% | ** | 30% | 41% | 49% | 41% | 38% | 38% | 42% | 42% | 36% | 46% | 41% | 40% | 41% | 40% | 41% | 26% | 38% | 62% |
| Price | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0% | ** | ** | ** | 2% | ** | 2% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| Sweeney | 1% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ** | ** | ** | 1% | ** | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Miller-Johnson | 5% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 5% | ** | 4% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Other | 10% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 14% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 9% | 11% | 4% | ** | ** | ** | 10% | ** | 16% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 13% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 5% | 12% | 8% |
| Undecided | 16% | 14% | 17% | 10% | 14% | 19% | 17% | 13% | 18% | 14% | 29% | ** | ** | ** | 16% | ** | 18% | 12% | 15% | 14% | 17% | 17% | 14% | 13% | 17% | 12% | 16% | 14% | 16% | 14% | 20% | 17% | 14% | 11% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 14% | 31% | 34% | 21% | 45% | 55% | 90% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 26% | 43% | 21% | 44% | 56% | 55% | 29% | 16% | 46% | 45% | 58% | 38% | 43% | 57% | 23% | 26% | 35% | 16% |
 | If the only two names on the ballot for United States Senator from Kentucky were Republican Trey Grayson and ... Democrat Jack Conway, who would you vote for? |
| 1770 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Registration | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Louisvil | North Ce | Eastern | |
| Grayson (R) | 43% | 53% | 34% | 35% | 49% | 46% | 38% | 44% | 43% | 45% | 13% | ** | ** | 71% | 23% | 42% | 70% | 31% | 17% | 52% | 38% | 52% | 36% | 30% | 56% | 26% | 49% | 35% | 36% | 51% | 49% | 37% | 45% | 42% |
| Conway (D) | 39% | 32% | 46% | 47% | 31% | 39% | 44% | 37% | 42% | 37% | 62% | ** | ** | 13% | 60% | 25% | 17% | 51% | 67% | 35% | 42% | 32% | 48% | 48% | 27% | 59% | 36% | 45% | 45% | 34% | 32% | 50% | 38% | 36% |
| Undecided | 18% | 15% | 20% | 18% | 20% | 14% | 18% | 19% | 16% | 17% | 24% | ** | ** | 16% | 17% | 33% | 14% | 18% | 16% | 13% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 23% | 16% | 15% | 15% | 19% | 19% | 15% | 19% | 13% | 18% | 22% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 19% | 31% | 29% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 92% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 40% | 55% | 6% | 39% | 37% | 15% | 39% | 61% | 54% | 28% | 18% | 58% | 33% | 59% | 36% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 27% | 33% | 17% |
 | What if the only two names on the November ballot were ... Trey Grayson and Democrat Dan Mongiardo, who would you vote for? |
| 1770 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Registration | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Louisvil | North Ce | Eastern | |
| Grayson (R) | 48% | 61% | 37% | 45% | 51% | 51% | 44% | 49% | 48% | 51% | 15% | ** | ** | 79% | 26% | 55% | 74% | 38% | 19% | 55% | 44% | 55% | 42% | 38% | 61% | 32% | 55% | 39% | 41% | 56% | 52% | 47% | 50% | 43% |
| Mongiardo (D) | 38% | 29% | 47% | 40% | 36% | 36% | 42% | 38% | 39% | 36% | 63% | ** | ** | 10% | 61% | 17% | 17% | 47% | 67% | 36% | 40% | 33% | 45% | 44% | 27% | 56% | 34% | 45% | 45% | 33% | 34% | 40% | 37% | 44% |
| Undecided | 14% | 10% | 16% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 23% | ** | ** | 11% | 14% | 27% | 9% | 15% | 14% | 10% | 16% | 12% | 13% | 17% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 16% | 14% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 13% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 19% | 31% | 29% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 92% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 40% | 55% | 6% | 39% | 37% | 15% | 39% | 61% | 54% | 28% | 18% | 58% | 33% | 59% | 36% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 27% | 33% | 17% |
 | What if the only two names on the November ballot were ... Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Jack Conway? |
| 1770 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Registration | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Louisvil | North Ce | Eastern | |
| Paul (R) | 39% | 49% | 30% | 35% | 45% | 39% | 36% | 41% | 38% | 41% | 14% | ** | ** | 69% | 18% | 42% | 68% | 24% | 12% | 50% | 32% | 46% | 32% | 31% | 52% | 22% | 46% | 29% | 31% | 47% | 44% | 33% | 42% | 39% |
| Conway (D) | 44% | 37% | 49% | 51% | 38% | 44% | 46% | 43% | 45% | 42% | 63% | ** | ** | 16% | 65% | 32% | 19% | 59% | 73% | 38% | 47% | 37% | 53% | 49% | 32% | 62% | 39% | 53% | 50% | 38% | 38% | 54% | 42% | 39% |
| Undecided | 17% | 13% | 20% | 14% | 17% | 17% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 17% | 23% | ** | ** | 15% | 18% | 26% | 13% | 17% | 15% | 12% | 20% | 17% | 15% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 18% | 19% | 15% | 18% | 14% | 16% | 22% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 19% | 31% | 29% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 92% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 40% | 55% | 6% | 39% | 37% | 15% | 39% | 61% | 54% | 28% | 18% | 58% | 33% | 59% | 36% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 27% | 33% | 17% |
 | What if the only two names on the November ballot were Rand Paul and Democrat Dan Mongiardo? |
| 1770 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Registration | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Louisvil | North Ce | Eastern | |
| Paul (R) | 43% | 55% | 32% | 42% | 45% | 43% | 39% | 44% | 41% | 44% | 17% | ** | ** | 73% | 20% | 46% | 71% | 31% | 12% | 52% | 37% | 48% | 37% | 37% | 54% | 28% | 48% | 34% | 35% | 51% | 48% | 39% | 43% | 40% |
| Mongiardo (D) | 43% | 33% | 51% | 46% | 40% | 41% | 45% | 42% | 43% | 41% | 61% | ** | ** | 14% | 65% | 28% | 17% | 54% | 76% | 38% | 46% | 37% | 50% | 47% | 32% | 60% | 40% | 49% | 49% | 37% | 38% | 45% | 42% | 47% |
| Undecided | 15% | 12% | 18% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 16% | 14% | 22% | ** | ** | 13% | 15% | 26% | 11% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 18% | 15% | 13% | 16% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 17% | 16% | 13% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 14% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 19% | 31% | 29% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 92% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 40% | 55% | 6% | 39% | 37% | 15% | 39% | 61% | 54% | 28% | 18% | 58% | 33% | 59% | 36% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 27% | 33% | 17% |