Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #9100
3-Way Slugfest in MA Democrat Primary: In a Democratic Primary for Governor of Massachusetts today, 5/4/06, the 3 candidates are tightly bunched, and the lead has changed hands, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 421 Likely Democratic Primary Voters, conducted exclusively for WBZ-TV Boston. Today: 20 weeks to the 9/19 Primary, Tom Reilly gets 32%, Chris Gabrieli gets 29% and Deval Patrick gets 28%. Since an identical SurveyUSA / WBZ-TV poll released 24 days ago, on 4/24/06, Gabrieli has gained 10 points; Patrick has lost 8 points and fallen from 1st place to 3rd place; and Reilly has lost 1 point. Among self-described "Independents," who make up 30% of the likely voter pool in SurveyUSA's voter turnout model, Patrick has lost 8 points, Reilly has lost 4 points, and Gabrieli has gained 9 points. Among Moderates, Gabrieli and Patrick have traded places. Among Liberals, there has been little movement. The contest is a 3-way tie in Greater Boston. In Western and Central Massachusetts, Reilly has a 9-point lead. Patrick has fallen 13 points among those who earn $40,000 to $80,000 a year. Patrick has fallen 14 points among those who earn less than $40,000 a year.
Filtering: 2,400 Massachusetts adults were interviewed 5/1/06 - 5/3/06. Of them, 2,068 were registered voters. Of them, 706 were judged to be "likely voters". Of them, 421 were registered Democrats or Independents who chose a Democratic ballot. Crosstabs reflect Likely Democratic Primary voters.
If the Democratic Primary for Governor of Massachusetts were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Chris Gabrieli? Deval Patrick? Or Tom Reilly?
421 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyIdeologyEducationIncomeRegionGeocoding
Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalNo ColleSome ColCollege Grad Sch<$40K$40K-$80>$80KW/CentraBoston ASE MA anUrbanSuburban
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%44%56%19%28%31%22%86%5%4%5%70%30%10%41%43%17%17%27%39%21%34%39%20%64%16%20%80%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.