| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17045 |
| 2 Weeks Until Voting Begins in Ohio, Republicans Set to Take-Away Statehouse, Hold Voinovich's Open U.S. Senate Seat: In an election for Ohio Governor today, 09/14/10, former 12th District Republican Congressman John Kasich defeats incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland 52% to 40% to retake the Ohio statehouse, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCMH-TV Columbus.
Kasich has a narrow advantage in Columbus, Cleveland and southeastern Ohio, a material advantage in Toledo, Dayton, and Cincinnati. Those with a favorable opinion of the Tea Party movement vote 17:1 Republican. Whites back Kasich 3:2; blacks back Strickland 5:2. 1 in 10 Republicans cross over to vote Democratic; 18% of Democrats cross over to vote Republican. Independents break 5:3 Republican. Gun owners break 2:1 Republican. Strickland, elected in 2006, is seeking a 2nd term. In the race for Ohio's open US Senate seat, Republican Rob Portman today edges Democrat Lee Fisher 49% to 40%. Among men, Portman leads by 22 points; among women, Fisher leads by 3 -- a 25 point gender gap. Among whites, Portman leads 5:4; among blacks, Fisher leads 3:1. Twice as many Democrats cross party lines as do Republicans; Independents split. Portman, a former US Trade Representative and former federal budget director, is significantly ahead in the Cincinnati, Toledo, and Dayton areas; voters elsewhere split. Incumbent Republican George Voinovich is not seeking a 3rd term. Former US Senator Republican Mike DeWine today edges incumbent Attorney General Democrat Richard Cordray, 47% to 40%. Men account for DeWine's entire advantage. Democrats are twice as likely to vote for DeWine as Republicans are to vote for Cordray. Cordray, first elected in 2008, is seeking his first full term in office. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 Ohio adults 09/10/10 through 09/13/10. Of them, 905 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 641 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election, 7 weeks from today. Early voting begins in 2 weeks, on 09/28/10. |
 | [Candidate names rotated] If the election for Ohio Governor were today, which ticket would you vote for? The Republican ticket of John Kasich and Mary Taylor? The Democratic ticket of Ted Strickland and Yvette McGee Brown? The Green Party ticket of Dennis Spisak and Anita Rios? Or the Libertarian Party ticket of Ken Matesz and Margaret Ann Leech? |
| 641 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Toledo A | Dayton A | Cincinna | Columbus | Clevelan | SE Ohio | |
| Kasich/Taylor (R) | 52% | 56% | 48% | 47% | 58% | 51% | 48% | 54% | 50% | 55% | 25% | ** | ** | 85% | 18% | 51% | 79% | 39% | 19% | 87% | 8% | 52% | 42% | 59% | 46% | 55% | 50% | 49% | 71% | 36% | 61% | 45% | 45% | 58% | 57% | 53% | 60% | 50% | 49% | 49% |
| Strickland/Brown (D) | 40% | 37% | 42% | 44% | 36% | 42% | 41% | 38% | 41% | 37% | 66% | ** | ** | 10% | 76% | 33% | 14% | 52% | 75% | 5% | 89% | 38% | 41% | 36% | 44% | 37% | 40% | 43% | 21% | 56% | 32% | 48% | 46% | 36% | 36% | 39% | 29% | 43% | 43% | 45% |
| Spisak/Rios (G) | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | ** | ** | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Matesz/Leech (L) | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | ** | ** | 1% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Undecided | 3% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 4% | ** | ** | 2% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 14% | 33% | 29% | 24% | 47% | 53% | 88% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 39% | 38% | 21% | 37% | 41% | 15% | 38% | 27% | 23% | 11% | 51% | 49% | 54% | 21% | 25% | 47% | 50% | 46% | 51% | 39% | 61% | 8% | 11% | 15% | 20% | 41% | 5% |
 | [Candidate names rotated] Ohio voters will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for United States Senator from Ohio were today, who would you vote for? Republican Rob Portman? Democrat Lee Fisher? Constitution Party candidate Eric Deaton? Socialist Party candidate Dan LaBotz? Or Independent Michael Pryce? |
| 641 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Toledo A | Dayton A | Cincinna | Columbus | Clevelan | SE Ohio | |
| Portman (R) | 49% | 56% | 43% | 35% | 54% | 49% | 50% | 48% | 50% | 52% | 23% | ** | ** | 83% | 17% | 42% | 75% | 38% | 15% | 82% | 11% | 45% | 37% | 56% | 42% | 54% | 48% | 41% | 69% | 32% | 55% | 44% | 42% | 54% | 49% | 57% | 64% | 48% | 42% | 43% |
| Fisher (D) | 40% | 34% | 46% | 52% | 37% | 39% | 38% | 42% | 39% | 37% | 73% | ** | ** | 9% | 75% | 35% | 15% | 51% | 73% | 7% | 81% | 44% | 41% | 35% | 45% | 37% | 39% | 45% | 21% | 57% | 32% | 48% | 45% | 37% | 36% | 33% | 26% | 41% | 47% | 47% |
| Deaton (C) | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 0% | ** | ** | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
| LaBotz (S) | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% | ** | ** | 1% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Pryce (I) | 4% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 0% | ** | ** | 3% | 2% | 11% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 5% | 4% |
| Undecided | 4% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 2% | ** | ** | 3% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 16% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 14% | 33% | 29% | 24% | 47% | 53% | 88% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 39% | 38% | 21% | 37% | 41% | 15% | 38% | 27% | 23% | 11% | 51% | 49% | 54% | 21% | 25% | 47% | 50% | 46% | 51% | 39% | 61% | 8% | 11% | 15% | 20% | 41% | 5% |
 | [Candidate names rotated] Ohio will also elect an Attorney General. If the election for Attorney General were today, who would you vote for? Republican Mike DeWine? Democrat Richard Cordray? Libertarian Marc Feldman? Or Constitution Party candidate Robert Owens? |
| 641 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Toledo A | Dayton A | Cincinna | Columbus | Clevelan | SE Ohio | |
| DeWine (R) | 47% | 53% | 42% | 39% | 52% | 48% | 46% | 48% | 47% | 50% | 22% | ** | ** | 80% | 19% | 37% | 69% | 39% | 16% | 75% | 10% | 46% | 49% | 52% | 44% | 54% | 45% | 38% | 66% | 31% | 53% | 42% | 45% | 50% | 53% | 59% | 61% | 43% | 40% | 54% |
| Cordray (D) | 40% | 37% | 43% | 44% | 36% | 41% | 42% | 39% | 41% | 37% | 71% | ** | ** | 10% | 75% | 36% | 16% | 51% | 76% | 8% | 87% | 39% | 36% | 38% | 41% | 37% | 41% | 44% | 20% | 58% | 33% | 48% | 43% | 39% | 31% | 31% | 29% | 47% | 46% | 40% |
| Feldman (L) | 4% | 3% | 5% | 10% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 1% | ** | ** | 2% | 1% | 15% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 0% |
| Owens (RP) | 4% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 0% | ** | ** | 5% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 0% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 3% |
| Undecided | 4% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 5% | ** | ** | 2% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 10% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 11% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 14% | 33% | 29% | 24% | 47% | 53% | 88% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 39% | 38% | 21% | 37% | 41% | 15% | 38% | 27% | 23% | 11% | 51% | 49% | 54% | 21% | 25% | 47% | 50% | 46% | 51% | 39% | 61% | 8% | 11% | 15% | 20% | 41% | 5% |