Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14596
In Indiana 9, Incumbent Democrat Comfortably Ahead, 11 Days Till Votes Are Counted: In an election for US House of Representatives in Indiana's 9th Congressional District today, 10/24/08, incumbent Democrat Baron Hill defeats Republican Mike Sodrel by 54% to 39%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WHAS-TV Louisville. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 3 weeks ago, nothing has changed. Hill and Sodrel have run against each other in three previous elections; in the last, two years ago, Schansberg also ran, making this year's race an exact rematch of 2006, when Hill Beat Sodrel by 5 points to re-take his seat. Full history of the contest:
  • 1998: Hill first elected, beating Republican Jean Leising, 51% to 48%
  • 2000: Hill re-elected over Republican Michael Bailey, 54% to 44%.
  • 2002: Hill re-elected over Republican Mike Sodrel, 51% to 46%.
  • 2004: Sodrel elected, beating Hill, by a margin of 1,425 votes.
  • 2006: Hill elected, taking seat back from Sodrel, 50% to 45%.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from Indiana's 9th Congressional District 10/22/08 and 10/23/08. Of the adults, 728 identified themselves as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 599 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before election day. Hill leads 2:1 among those poll respondents who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted.

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Republican Mike Sodrel? Democrat Baron Hill? Or Libertarian Eric Schansberg?
599 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAlready Voted?Attend Religious ServiceAbortion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalActual VLikely VRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choi
Mike Sodrel (R)39%44%34%36%47%37%35%42%36%39%******74%12%31%68%23%14%32%40%50%30%26%55%21%
Baron Hill (D)54%49%59%53%47%60%60%50%60%55%******20%85%54%26%70%80%64%53%43%64%67%38%73%
Eric Schansberg (L)5%6%4%9%5%2%3%7%2%4%******4%2%13%4%5%6%2%5%5%3%7%4%5%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%24%28%27%20%53%47%96%2%2%1%39%45%15%37%42%15%12%88%50%27%23%54%44%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.