Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22676 |
1 Month to NC Presidential Primary, Trump Atop Rubio and Cruz; Clinton Well Ahead of Sanders; General Election Head-To-Head Matchups Favor Republicans if Clinton is the Democratic Nominee: 2 weeks till voting begins in the North Carolina presidential primary and 4 weeks until votes are counted, Donald Trump remains the Republican front-runner, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable News North Carolina. But: By the time North Carolina's primary ballots are counted 03/15/16, Trump may be the only Republican left in the race, Trump may have splintered off to launch a 3rd-party bid for the White House, or any no-scenario-too-wild permutation in between. Today, 02/17/16, Trump, at 36%, leads Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, who tie for 2nd place at 18%. John Kasich, in 5th place at 7%, and Jeb Bush, in 6th place at 5%, finish behind Ben Carson, whose campaign is sputtering but who finishes 4th at 10%. Trump's 36% in North Carolina is similar to the 35% of the vote he received in last week's New Hampshire primary, higher than the 24% Trump received in Iowa. Two thirds of the interviews for this survey were completed before George W. Bush campaigned in neighboring South Carolina for his brother Jeb; one third of the interviews were completed after Bush's appearance. Trump's NC primary support grows from 32% among "very conservative" voters to 37% among "conservative" voters to 40% among "moderate" voters. Even though Cruz's support is disproportionately "very conservative," Trump edges Cruz in this key demographic. And: Cruz trails Trump (though Cruz edges Rubio) among North Carolina's evangelical voters. Trump leads Rubio by 17 points among "Strong Republicans." Trump leads Rubio by 10 points among "Independents who Lean Republican." Trump leads his nearest challenger by more than 2:1 among high-school educated voters and by 4:1 among voters earning less than $40,000 a year. Trump is at 47% in Southern NC and at 28% in greater Raleigh. Cruz and Rubio are both weak in greater Greensboro. Cruz is also weak in Southern NC. Trump is at 41% among voters who have lived in NC more than 20 years. Among Republican primary voters who say the economy is the most important issue in the campaign, Trump leads Rubio by 15 points. Among voters who say health care is the most important issue, Trump leads Cruz by 29 points. Among voters who say that terrorism is the most important issue, Trump leads Rubio by 8 points. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 51% to 36%. Sanders leads by a nominal 3 points among white voters. Clinton's entire primary lead comes from African Americans, where she out-polls Sanders at this hour by 45 points. Clinton's support is disproportionately old. Sanders support is disproportionately young. Clinton runs 21 points better than Sanders among NC Democratic women. "Very Liberal" voters back Sanders. "Liberal," "Moderate" and "Conservative" voters back Clinton. Clinton runs strongest among middle-income voters. Sanders leads Clinton among voters who have some college education but who have not gotten a 4-year college degree. But Clinton clobbers Sanders among Democrats with a high-school education. When Hillary Clinton is paired against the leading 3 Republicans in hypothetical head-to-head November matchups, she loses. Among all NC likely general election voters, it's:
* Rubio 49%, Clinton 42%.
* Sanders 46%, Cruz 42%. Caveats: Much will happen between today and 03/15/16 that could affect this presidential primary polling. More than 2 dozen states hold primaries or caucuses between today and 03/15/16, each of which contests may give momentum to, or suck oxygen from, a given candidate. Republicans may drop out of the race. Those who drop out may throw their support behind one of the remaining candidates. The campaign may become less civil, if such a thing is possible, or perhaps each of the two parties coalesce behind a single candidate by the time Tarheel voters weigh in. Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,650 NC adults after the New Hampshire primary, between 02/14/16 and 02/16/16. Of the adults, 1,444 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 437 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary, 449 were identified as likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. |
1 | Do you approve? Or disapprove? Of the job Barack Obama is doing as President? |
1444 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Evangelical | Lived in NC | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Issue | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 2.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | <20 Yrs | 20+ Yrs | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | Economy | Health C | Terroris | |
Approve | 42% | 39% | 44% | 51% | 39% | 41% | 38% | 44% | 40% | 31% | 78% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 36% | 69% | 78% | 93% | 23% | 15% | 44% | 82% | 82% | 27% | 55% | 48% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 47% | 47% | 34% | 47% | 44% | 40% | 37% | 37% | 54% | 35% | 39% | 51% | 19% |
Disapprove | 53% | 55% | 51% | 37% | 54% | 57% | 59% | 47% | 58% | 64% | 15% | 93% | 81% | 82% | 52% | 23% | 18% | 6% | 75% | 80% | 49% | 15% | 10% | 70% | 39% | 45% | 57% | 57% | 57% | 47% | 47% | 60% | 49% | 47% | 57% | 58% | 54% | 42% | 59% | 57% | 47% | 80% |
Not Sure | 5% | 6% | 5% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 0% | 9% | 5% | 12% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 9% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 19% | 28% | 31% | 22% | 47% | 53% | 71% | 21% | 14% | 17% | 17% | 11% | 11% | 16% | 14% | 18% | 22% | 32% | 15% | 6% | 45% | 48% | 36% | 64% | 18% | 38% | 44% | 35% | 36% | 29% | 38% | 62% | 36% | 19% | 29% | 16% | 41% | 19% | 9% |
2 | If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Donald Trump? Ted Cruz? Marco Rubio? Ben Carson? Jeb Bush? John Kasich? Or will you vote for some other candidate? |
437 Likely Republican Primary Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Evangelical | Lived in NC | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Issue | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | <20 Yrs | 20+ Yrs | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | Economy | Health C | Terroris | |
Donald Trump | 36% | 38% | 34% | 32% | 40% | 36% | 35% | 37% | 36% | 37% | ** | 38% | 38% | 29% | 49% | ** | ** | ** | 32% | 37% | 40% | ** | ** | 36% | 35% | 27% | 41% | 42% | 39% | 32% | 50% | 37% | 26% | 37% | 36% | 36% | 37% | 28% | 47% | 35% | 45% | 37% |
Ted Cruz | 18% | 20% | 16% | 18% | 18% | 22% | 13% | 18% | 18% | 18% | ** | 20% | 18% | 17% | 13% | ** | ** | ** | 31% | 14% | 10% | ** | ** | 21% | 14% | 19% | 18% | 16% | 15% | 21% | 12% | 19% | 21% | 13% | 20% | 22% | 13% | 20% | 12% | 17% | 16% | 13% |
Marco Rubio | 18% | 17% | 19% | 10% | 14% | 23% | 21% | 13% | 22% | 19% | ** | 21% | 15% | 19% | 8% | ** | ** | ** | 18% | 23% | 12% | ** | ** | 19% | 17% | 19% | 17% | 16% | 21% | 17% | 9% | 19% | 23% | 16% | 19% | 19% | 13% | 21% | 17% | 20% | 13% | 29% |
Ben Carson | 10% | 10% | 10% | 27% | 13% | 4% | 4% | 18% | 4% | 6% | ** | 9% | 8% | 13% | 10% | ** | ** | ** | 8% | 8% | 10% | ** | ** | 10% | 10% | 16% | 7% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 16% | 7% | 9% | 16% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 10% |
Jeb Bush | 5% | 4% | 7% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 5% | ** | 3% | 8% | 5% | 0% | ** | ** | ** | 3% | 5% | 9% | ** | ** | 5% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 2% |
John Kasich | 7% | 9% | 5% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 11% | 5% | 8% | 8% | ** | 3% | 8% | 10% | 9% | ** | ** | ** | 3% | 9% | 9% | ** | ** | 5% | 10% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 6% | 9% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 6% | 10% | 5% | 5% |
Other | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ** | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 0% | 1% | 1% | ** | ** | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 3% |
No Preference | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | ** | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | ** | ** | ** | 1% | 1% | 1% | ** | ** | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
Undecided | 4% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 5% | ** | 4% | 4% | 4% | 8% | ** | ** | ** | 3% | 3% | 8% | ** | ** | 2% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 1% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters | 100% | 53% | 47% | 14% | 27% | 35% | 24% | 41% | 59% | 85% | 5% | 38% | 33% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 35% | 34% | 24% | 3% | 2% | 60% | 35% | 35% | 65% | 17% | 34% | 49% | 22% | 46% | 33% | 32% | 68% | 39% | 20% | 23% | 18% | 45% | 16% | 14% |
3 | If the Democratic Primary for President of the United States were today, and you were filling your Democratic primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Or Bernie Sanders? |
449 Likely Democratic Primary Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Evangelical | Lived in NC | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Issue | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | <20 Yrs | 20+ Yrs | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | Economy | Health C | Terroris | |
Hillary Clinton | 51% | 48% | 53% | 44% | 40% | 60% | 57% | 42% | 58% | 44% | 63% | ** | ** | ** | ** | 37% | 54% | 63% | 40% | 47% | 56% | 58% | 39% | 46% | 53% | 53% | 50% | 62% | 39% | 57% | 51% | 55% | 48% | 46% | 53% | 49% | 48% | 55% | 44% | 47% | 62% | ** |
Bernie Sanders | 36% | 43% | 32% | 43% | 43% | 32% | 31% | 43% | 31% | 47% | 18% | ** | ** | ** | ** | 55% | 31% | 30% | 48% | 28% | 32% | 33% | 55% | 36% | 38% | 39% | 35% | 28% | 44% | 33% | 37% | 32% | 39% | 43% | 33% | 38% | 37% | 35% | 37% | 39% | 31% | ** |
No Preference | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 6% | ** | ** | ** | ** | 1% | 2% | 3% | 9% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 6% | 2% | 7% | 3% | 7% | 5% | 3% | ** |
Undecided | 9% | 5% | 12% | 9% | 14% | 6% | 5% | 12% | 6% | 6% | 14% | ** | ** | ** | ** | 7% | 13% | 3% | 3% | 15% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 12% | 7% | 6% | 10% | 5% | 12% | 7% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 7% | 11% | 8% | 6% | 12% | 8% | 4% | ** |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters | 100% | 43% | 57% | 16% | 28% | 32% | 23% | 44% | 56% | 56% | 36% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 14% | 33% | 40% | 10% | 10% | 29% | 31% | 12% | 32% | 62% | 34% | 66% | 13% | 37% | 50% | 36% | 33% | 31% | 34% | 66% | 30% | 17% | 40% | 13% | 38% | 24% | 5% |
4 | If the November election for President of the United States were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for? |
1250 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Evangelical | Lived in NC | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Issue | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | <20 Yrs | 20+ Yrs | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | Economy | Health C | Terroris | |
Donald Trump (R) | 45% | 48% | 42% | 30% | 46% | 45% | 54% | 40% | 49% | 55% | 13% | 86% | 77% | 74% | 41% | 11% | 10% | 2% | 72% | 70% | 37% | 11% | 7% | 60% | 31% | 38% | 48% | 50% | 47% | 41% | 40% | 51% | 42% | 37% | 49% | 48% | 45% | 37% | 51% | 47% | 36% | 67% |
Hillary Clinton (D) | 43% | 39% | 46% | 52% | 41% | 43% | 37% | 45% | 41% | 34% | 74% | 5% | 9% | 11% | 31% | 69% | 84% | 95% | 19% | 16% | 45% | 82% | 89% | 27% | 57% | 45% | 41% | 35% | 39% | 49% | 46% | 35% | 49% | 47% | 40% | 38% | 44% | 50% | 36% | 39% | 53% | 19% |
Undecided | 13% | 13% | 12% | 18% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 15% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 9% | 14% | 15% | 28% | 20% | 7% | 3% | 9% | 14% | 18% | 6% | 4% | 13% | 12% | 17% | 11% | 15% | 15% | 10% | 14% | 14% | 9% | 16% | 11% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 11% | 13% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 17% | 28% | 33% | 22% | 45% | 55% | 71% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 10% | 11% | 15% | 16% | 20% | 22% | 32% | 16% | 6% | 45% | 49% | 36% | 64% | 16% | 38% | 46% | 32% | 37% | 31% | 36% | 64% | 37% | 17% | 30% | 16% | 41% | 19% | 9% |
5 | What if the only two candidates were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton? |
1250 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Evangelical | Lived in NC | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Issue | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | <20 Yrs | 20+ Yrs | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | Economy | Health C | Terroris | |
Ted Cruz (R) | 48% | 52% | 44% | 45% | 44% | 48% | 54% | 44% | 50% | 56% | 16% | 90% | 80% | 76% | 47% | 12% | 12% | 3% | 76% | 76% | 41% | 8% | 8% | 65% | 32% | 43% | 50% | 51% | 50% | 44% | 41% | 55% | 45% | 44% | 49% | 51% | 47% | 39% | 55% | 53% | 37% | 69% |
Hillary Clinton (D) | 43% | 38% | 47% | 42% | 43% | 45% | 40% | 43% | 43% | 35% | 73% | 4% | 9% | 10% | 34% | 69% | 84% | 96% | 18% | 15% | 45% | 87% | 88% | 26% | 59% | 46% | 41% | 35% | 38% | 49% | 47% | 35% | 49% | 43% | 43% | 39% | 42% | 51% | 35% | 38% | 53% | 20% |
Undecided | 10% | 10% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 8% | 7% | 13% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 6% | 11% | 14% | 19% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 9% | 14% | 5% | 4% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 14% | 12% | 7% | 12% | 11% | 7% | 13% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 10% | 11% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 17% | 28% | 33% | 22% | 45% | 55% | 71% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 10% | 11% | 15% | 16% | 20% | 22% | 32% | 16% | 6% | 45% | 49% | 36% | 64% | 16% | 38% | 46% | 32% | 37% | 31% | 36% | 64% | 37% | 17% | 30% | 16% | 41% | 19% | 9% |
6 | What if it were Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Hillary Clinton? |
1250 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Evangelical | Lived in NC | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Issue | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | <20 Yrs | 20+ Yrs | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | Economy | Health C | Terroris | |
Marco Rubio (R) | 49% | 52% | 47% | 42% | 48% | 48% | 57% | 46% | 51% | 59% | 12% | 87% | 88% | 80% | 44% | 12% | 14% | 2% | 76% | 76% | 44% | 10% | 5% | 66% | 34% | 46% | 51% | 53% | 51% | 46% | 42% | 55% | 48% | 46% | 50% | 52% | 47% | 41% | 58% | 55% | 40% | 76% |
Hillary Clinton (D) | 42% | 38% | 46% | 42% | 43% | 44% | 38% | 43% | 42% | 33% | 75% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 37% | 67% | 82% | 97% | 18% | 14% | 45% | 84% | 91% | 26% | 57% | 44% | 41% | 35% | 39% | 48% | 47% | 35% | 46% | 43% | 42% | 39% | 41% | 50% | 37% | 38% | 54% | 17% |
Undecided | 9% | 11% | 7% | 16% | 9% | 8% | 5% | 11% | 7% | 8% | 13% | 8% | 6% | 10% | 19% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 10% | 11% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 12% | 11% | 6% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 17% | 28% | 33% | 22% | 45% | 55% | 71% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 10% | 11% | 15% | 16% | 20% | 22% | 32% | 16% | 6% | 45% | 49% | 36% | 64% | 16% | 38% | 46% | 32% | 37% | 31% | 36% | 64% | 37% | 17% | 30% | 16% | 41% | 19% | 9% |
7 | Now, what if it were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders? |
1250 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Evangelical | Lived in NC | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Issue | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | <20 Yrs | 20+ Yrs | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | Economy | Health C | Terroris | |
Donald Trump (R) | 44% | 50% | 39% | 34% | 43% | 45% | 51% | 40% | 48% | 53% | 16% | 87% | 77% | 66% | 32% | 11% | 16% | 5% | 72% | 67% | 38% | 11% | 6% | 59% | 31% | 40% | 47% | 51% | 45% | 41% | 38% | 51% | 43% | 37% | 48% | 48% | 45% | 34% | 54% | 48% | 36% | 65% |
Bernie Sanders (D) | 44% | 40% | 49% | 53% | 46% | 43% | 38% | 49% | 41% | 37% | 70% | 6% | 11% | 18% | 46% | 74% | 78% | 90% | 21% | 19% | 49% | 82% | 92% | 28% | 59% | 48% | 42% | 35% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 38% | 47% | 50% | 42% | 40% | 46% | 54% | 36% | 40% | 55% | 23% |
Undecided | 11% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 14% | 7% | 12% | 16% | 22% | 15% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 14% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 13% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 13% | 10% | 13% | 9% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 12% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 17% | 28% | 33% | 22% | 45% | 55% | 71% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 10% | 11% | 15% | 16% | 20% | 22% | 32% | 16% | 6% | 45% | 49% | 36% | 64% | 16% | 38% | 46% | 32% | 37% | 31% | 36% | 64% | 37% | 17% | 30% | 16% | 41% | 19% | 9% |
8 | What if it were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Bernie Sanders? |
1250 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Evangelical | Lived in NC | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Issue | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | <20 Yrs | 20+ Yrs | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | Economy | Health C | Terroris | |
Ted Cruz (R) | 42% | 46% | 39% | 35% | 42% | 43% | 47% | 39% | 45% | 50% | 12% | 86% | 76% | 64% | 33% | 4% | 14% | 4% | 72% | 68% | 35% | 6% | 4% | 60% | 28% | 38% | 44% | 46% | 42% | 41% | 35% | 47% | 44% | 38% | 45% | 44% | 43% | 35% | 50% | 49% | 33% | 65% |
Bernie Sanders (D) | 46% | 42% | 50% | 52% | 47% | 46% | 41% | 49% | 44% | 39% | 73% | 7% | 13% | 22% | 44% | 79% | 80% | 89% | 22% | 20% | 51% | 87% | 94% | 28% | 63% | 51% | 44% | 39% | 44% | 51% | 52% | 41% | 48% | 50% | 44% | 43% | 45% | 55% | 39% | 40% | 56% | 24% |
Undecided | 11% | 12% | 11% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 15% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 23% | 17% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 12% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 14% | 8% | 14% | 12% | 8% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 17% | 28% | 33% | 22% | 45% | 55% | 71% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 10% | 11% | 15% | 16% | 20% | 22% | 32% | 16% | 6% | 45% | 49% | 36% | 64% | 16% | 38% | 46% | 32% | 37% | 31% | 36% | 64% | 37% | 17% | 30% | 16% | 41% | 19% | 9% |
9 | And what if it were Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Bernie Sanders? |
1250 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Evangelical | Lived in NC | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Issue | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | <20 Yrs | 20+ Yrs | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | Economy | Health C | Terroris | |
Marco Rubio (R) | 44% | 46% | 41% | 33% | 43% | 43% | 53% | 40% | 47% | 53% | 9% | 84% | 83% | 70% | 28% | 8% | 14% | 1% | 71% | 71% | 37% | 5% | 5% | 60% | 30% | 42% | 45% | 47% | 43% | 42% | 34% | 50% | 45% | 38% | 47% | 47% | 41% | 36% | 54% | 49% | 39% | 72% |
Bernie Sanders (D) | 45% | 42% | 49% | 51% | 46% | 46% | 39% | 48% | 43% | 37% | 75% | 7% | 10% | 19% | 48% | 73% | 80% | 92% | 23% | 17% | 51% | 86% | 93% | 28% | 61% | 48% | 44% | 38% | 44% | 49% | 53% | 38% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 41% | 46% | 54% | 39% | 41% | 51% | 21% |
Undecided | 11% | 12% | 10% | 16% | 11% | 11% | 8% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 17% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 24% | 19% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 2% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 14% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 11% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 7% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 17% | 28% | 33% | 22% | 45% | 55% | 71% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 10% | 11% | 15% | 16% | 20% | 22% | 32% | 16% | 6% | 45% | 49% | 36% | 64% | 16% | 38% | 46% | 32% | 37% | 31% | 36% | 64% | 37% | 17% | 30% | 16% | 41% | 19% | 9% |
1250 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Evangelical | Lived in NC | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Issue | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Yes | No | <20 Yrs | 20+ Yrs | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | Economy | Health C | Terroris | |
Economy | 41% | 46% | 37% | 44% | 47% | 38% | 37% | 46% | 38% | 41% | 43% | 47% | 50% | 42% | 29% | 36% | 41% | 39% | 47% | 43% | 43% | 33% | 21% | 41% | 42% | 41% | 42% | 42% | 40% | 43% | 44% | 36% | 46% | 46% | 38% | 38% | 43% | 42% | 45% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
Health Care | 19% | 16% | 22% | 15% | 19% | 20% | 21% | 17% | 21% | 19% | 22% | 13% | 21% | 10% | 20% | 16% | 23% | 31% | 15% | 17% | 20% | 24% | 22% | 19% | 20% | 18% | 20% | 24% | 19% | 17% | 24% | 20% | 14% | 17% | 20% | 21% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
Education | 7% | 7% | 8% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 5% | 11% | 5% | 5% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 16% | 12% | 9% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 15% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 9% | 6% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Gay Rights | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Immigration | 8% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 7% | 11% | 7% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 13% | 10% | 13% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 11% | 11% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 10% | 9% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Environment | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 16% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Voting Rights | 2% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Abortion | 2% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Terrorism | 9% | 9% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 13% | 7% | 11% | 11% | 3% | 15% | 10% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 14% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 13% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Gun Sales | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Something Else | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 17% | 28% | 33% | 22% | 45% | 55% | 71% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 10% | 11% | 15% | 16% | 20% | 22% | 32% | 16% | 6% | 45% | 49% | 36% | 64% | 16% | 38% | 46% | 32% | 37% | 31% | 36% | 64% | 37% | 17% | 30% | 16% | 41% | 19% | 9% |