| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17484 |
| KS GOP Poised to Sweep Democrats from Statewide Offices: In elections for statewide offices in Kansas today, 10/27/10, 6 days until votes are counted, Republican candidates defeat their Democratic opponents in 4 of 5 contests polled by SurveyUSA exclusively for KWCH-TV in Wichita, with only the race for Attorney General appearing at this hour to have some drama.
For Governor, US Senator Sam Brownback and running mate Jeff Colyer today remain where they have been in 3 polls over the past 6 weeks, 2:1 atop Democrats Tom Holland and Kelly Kultala. Incumbent Democrat Mark Parkinson, who became governor when Kathleen Sebelius resigned to join the Obama administration, is not running. In the race to replace Republican Brownback in the US Senate, Republican Jerry Moran today remains where he has been since polling began in mid-August: 40 points atop Democrat Lisa Johnston. Johnston has not broken 27% in 4 SurveyUSA polls on this contest. For Secretary of State, Republican Kris Kobach today defeats incumbent Democrat Chris Biggs by 21 points, 56% to 35%, up 3 points from an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago. In 4 polls, Biggs has never polled higher than 36%. The Democratic incumbent State Treasurer, Dennis McKinney, is one of 2 Kansas incumbent Democrats with positive momentum, but at this hour, not enough of it to carry him across the finish line ahead of Republican Ron Estes. Estes today defeats McKinney 57% to 37%, a 20 point lead. Two weeks ago, Estes led by 24 points; 6 weeks ago, he led by 31; 10 weeks ago, he led by 38. Incumbent Attorney General Steve Six remains the Kansas Democrat with the best chance of keeping his job, but even he trails his rival Republican Derek Schmidt by 8 points, unchanged from the previous poll. Schmidt led by 20 points when polling began in August, but has led in single-digits since. 20% of Republicans cross-over to vote for Six. Independents in this contest break for the Democrat. There continues to be volatility in this race; among seniors, typically the most stable and reliable voters, the lead has changed 4 times in 4 polls. |
| Filtering: 950 Kansas adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/22/10 through 10/26/10. Of them, 792 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 561 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. Advance voting began 10/13/10. |
 | [Candidate names rotated] If the election for Kansas Governor were today, which ticket would you vote for? The Republican ticket of Sam Brownback and Jeff Colyer? The Democratic ticket of Tom Holland and Kelly Kultala? The Libertarian ticket of Andrew Gray and Stacey Davis? Or The Reform Party ticket of Ken Cannon and Dan Faubion? |
| 561 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Vote in Midterms | 2010 Enthusiasm Vs Prior | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Rarely | Usually | Always | More | Less | Same | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Northeas | Southeas | Western | |
| Brownback/Colyer (R) | 59% | 60% | 58% | 53% | 69% | 54% | 56% | 62% | 55% | 61% | ** | ** | ** | 54% | 60% | 85% | 20% | 39% | 86% | 41% | 14% | 86% | 18% | 60% | 59% | 64% | 54% | 62% | 72% | 26% | 52% | 54% | 63% | 66% | 50% | 45% | 77% | 32% | 63% | 50% | 55% | 60% | 50% | 64% | 74% |
| Holland/Kultala (D) | 32% | 30% | 34% | 30% | 22% | 38% | 37% | 26% | 38% | 31% | ** | ** | ** | 34% | 31% | 10% | 71% | 38% | 7% | 51% | 72% | 4% | 76% | 30% | 23% | 21% | 35% | 32% | 20% | 56% | 39% | 37% | 28% | 26% | 39% | 46% | 13% | 59% | 27% | 40% | 30% | 34% | 39% | 26% | 20% |
| Gray/Davis (L) | 4% | 5% | 2% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 5% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 10% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 10% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Cannon/Faubion (RP) | 3% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 3% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 1% |
| Undecided | 3% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 53% | 47% | 19% | 29% | 29% | 23% | 48% | 52% | 88% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 19% | 81% | 55% | 27% | 17% | 47% | 33% | 13% | 43% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 14% | 44% | 41% | 47% | 12% | 41% | 49% | 51% | 61% | 21% | 18% | 56% | 42% | 57% | 40% | 37% | 63% | 50% | 33% | 17% |
 | [Candidate names rotated] Kansas voters will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for United States Senator from Kansas were today, who would you vote for? Republican Jerry Moran? Democrat Lisa Johnston? Libertarian Michael Dann? Or Reform Party candidate Joe Bellis? |
| 561 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Vote in Midterms | 2010 Enthusiasm Vs Prior | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Rarely | Usually | Always | More | Less | Same | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Northeas | Southeas | Western | |
| Moran (R) | 66% | 66% | 65% | 53% | 73% | 65% | 69% | 65% | 67% | 69% | ** | ** | ** | 60% | 67% | 89% | 32% | 48% | 89% | 54% | 19% | 86% | 32% | 74% | 63% | 66% | 61% | 71% | 74% | 50% | 61% | 63% | 69% | 73% | 58% | 52% | 80% | 46% | 72% | 57% | 64% | 66% | 55% | 74% | 83% |
| Johnston (D) | 26% | 25% | 28% | 31% | 21% | 29% | 26% | 25% | 27% | 24% | ** | ** | ** | 29% | 25% | 5% | 64% | 30% | 5% | 38% | 72% | 4% | 63% | 20% | 21% | 22% | 28% | 24% | 19% | 39% | 30% | 29% | 23% | 19% | 34% | 38% | 11% | 47% | 19% | 36% | 24% | 28% | 35% | 19% | 13% |
| Dann (L) | 3% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 0% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Bellis (RP) | 3% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 9% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 9% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Undecided | 3% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 53% | 47% | 19% | 29% | 29% | 23% | 48% | 52% | 88% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 19% | 81% | 55% | 27% | 17% | 47% | 33% | 13% | 43% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 14% | 44% | 41% | 47% | 12% | 41% | 49% | 51% | 61% | 21% | 18% | 56% | 42% | 57% | 40% | 37% | 63% | 50% | 33% | 17% |
 | [Candidate names rotated] Kansas will also elect a Secretary of State. If the election for Secretary of State were today, who would you vote for? Republican Kris Kobach? Democrat Chris Biggs? Libertarian Philip Lucas? Or Reform Party candidate Derek Langseth? |
| 561 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Vote in Midterms | 2010 Enthusiasm Vs Prior | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Rarely | Usually | Always | More | Less | Same | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Northeas | Southeas | Western | |
| Kobach (R) | 56% | 58% | 53% | 56% | 64% | 51% | 52% | 61% | 51% | 57% | ** | ** | ** | 54% | 56% | 78% | 17% | 48% | 82% | 36% | 19% | 83% | 19% | 55% | 50% | 64% | 51% | 58% | 68% | 32% | 48% | 52% | 59% | 63% | 46% | 43% | 74% | 30% | 61% | 45% | 54% | 56% | 49% | 63% | 62% |
| Biggs (D) | 35% | 35% | 35% | 34% | 24% | 41% | 40% | 28% | 41% | 34% | ** | ** | ** | 39% | 34% | 14% | 75% | 36% | 10% | 56% | 71% | 8% | 76% | 31% | 31% | 22% | 37% | 36% | 24% | 60% | 41% | 39% | 31% | 27% | 44% | 48% | 16% | 62% | 30% | 43% | 31% | 37% | 40% | 30% | 28% |
| Lucas (L) | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| Langseth (RP) | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ** | ** | ** | 0% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0% |
| Undecided | 5% | 2% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 5% | ** | ** | ** | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 13% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 8% | 8% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 8% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 53% | 47% | 19% | 29% | 29% | 23% | 48% | 52% | 88% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 19% | 81% | 55% | 27% | 17% | 47% | 33% | 13% | 43% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 14% | 44% | 41% | 47% | 12% | 41% | 49% | 51% | 61% | 21% | 18% | 56% | 42% | 57% | 40% | 37% | 63% | 50% | 33% | 17% |
 | [Candidate names rotated] Kansas will also elect an Attorney General. If the election for Attorney General were today, who would you vote for? Republican Derek Schmidt? Democrat Steve Six? Or Libertarian Dennis Hawver? |
| 561 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Vote in Midterms | 2010 Enthusiasm Vs Prior | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Rarely | Usually | Always | More | Less | Same | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Northeas | Southeas | Western | |
| Schmidt (R) | 50% | 51% | 48% | 44% | 60% | 47% | 46% | 54% | 47% | 53% | ** | ** | ** | 49% | 50% | 73% | 14% | 35% | 76% | 32% | 12% | 76% | 13% | 47% | 52% | 63% | 43% | 54% | 66% | 22% | 39% | 47% | 53% | 57% | 41% | 37% | 67% | 27% | 55% | 42% | 45% | 52% | 42% | 56% | 61% |
| Six (D) | 42% | 40% | 43% | 41% | 30% | 46% | 50% | 35% | 48% | 41% | ** | ** | ** | 43% | 41% | 20% | 82% | 45% | 15% | 63% | 78% | 14% | 83% | 44% | 31% | 28% | 44% | 42% | 27% | 66% | 51% | 45% | 38% | 34% | 51% | 55% | 22% | 68% | 38% | 49% | 41% | 42% | 47% | 38% | 33% |
| Hawver (L) | 4% | 6% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 8% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 2% |
| Undecided | 4% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | ** | ** | ** | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 14% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 53% | 47% | 19% | 29% | 29% | 23% | 48% | 52% | 88% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 19% | 81% | 55% | 27% | 17% | 47% | 33% | 13% | 43% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 14% | 44% | 41% | 47% | 12% | 41% | 49% | 51% | 61% | 21% | 18% | 56% | 42% | 57% | 40% | 37% | 63% | 50% | 33% | 17% |
 | [Candidate names rotated] Kansas will also elect a State Treasurer. If the election for State Treasurer were today, who would you vote for? Republican Ron Estes? Or Democrat Dennis McKinney? |
| 561 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Vote in Midterms | 2010 Enthusiasm Vs Prior | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Rarely | Usually | Always | More | Less | Same | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Northeas | Southeas | Western | |
| Estes (R) | 55% | 57% | 51% | 43% | 66% | 53% | 52% | 57% | 52% | 56% | ** | ** | ** | 54% | 55% | 76% | 16% | 48% | 77% | 40% | 19% | 84% | 15% | 50% | 52% | 56% | 51% | 58% | 68% | 37% | 44% | 54% | 56% | 61% | 44% | 46% | 70% | 33% | 62% | 44% | 53% | 55% | 50% | 60% | 57% |
| McKinney (D) | 40% | 38% | 42% | 50% | 28% | 42% | 43% | 37% | 43% | 38% | ** | ** | ** | 42% | 39% | 19% | 80% | 42% | 17% | 56% | 79% | 12% | 82% | 41% | 31% | 37% | 41% | 39% | 29% | 61% | 46% | 42% | 37% | 34% | 50% | 47% | 24% | 62% | 34% | 49% | 39% | 41% | 44% | 35% | 37% |
| Undecided | 6% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | ** | ** | ** | 5% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 10% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 7% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 9% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 53% | 47% | 19% | 29% | 29% | 23% | 48% | 52% | 88% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 19% | 81% | 55% | 27% | 17% | 47% | 33% | 13% | 43% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 14% | 44% | 41% | 47% | 12% | 41% | 49% | 51% | 61% | 21% | 18% | 56% | 42% | 57% | 40% | 37% | 63% | 50% | 33% | 17% |