| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17046 |
| Open US House Seat in CA-19: Republican Denham Has 2:1 Advantage Over Democrat Goodwin; GOP Holds: In an election for the open US House of Representatives seat in California's 19th Congressional District today, 09/14/10, Republican Jeff Denham defeats Democrat Loraine Goodwin 63% to 30%, keeping the seat on the Republican side of the aisle, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KFSN-TV in Fresno.
Goodwin, a doctor and lawyer, wins only among Democrats, liberals, and those with unfavorable opinions of the Tea Party movement. Denham, a state senator, is at or above 60% among both men and women, among voters age 35+, and among both whites and Asians. 4% of Republicans cross over to vote for Goodwin; 23% of Democrats cross over to vote for Denham. Independents back the Republican by a 2:1 margin. Incumbent Republican George Radanovich, elected in 1994, is not seeking re-election. Since 1975, The 19th District has been represented by a Republican for all but one term, 1993-1995. |
| Filtering: 800 registered voters from California's 19th Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 09/10/10 through 09/13/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 645 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election for US House of Representatives. |
| 1 | [Candidate names rotated] If you were filling out your ballot in the election for U.S. House of Representatives today, who would you vote for? Republican Jeff Denham? or Democrat Loraine Goodwin? |
| 645 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | |
| Jeff Denham (R) | 63% | 67% | 60% | 55% | 70% | 63% | 61% | 65% | 62% | 66% | ** | 46% | 61% | 91% | 23% | 56% | 92% | 45% | 21% | 91% | 16% | 69% | 53% | 60% | 67% | 71% | 62% | 52% | 82% | 46% | 72% | 52% | 60% | 64% |
| Loraine Goodwin (D) | 30% | 27% | 32% | 35% | 27% | 28% | 31% | 30% | 29% | 27% | ** | 45% | 27% | 4% | 72% | 27% | 4% | 45% | 68% | 4% | 76% | 25% | 24% | 32% | 26% | 23% | 32% | 37% | 13% | 45% | 24% | 38% | 30% | 30% |
| Undecided | 7% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 3% | 8% | 9% | 5% | 9% | 7% | ** | 9% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 18% | 4% | 10% | 10% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 24% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 11% | 5% | 9% | 5% | 10% | 10% | 6% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 14% | 24% | 34% | 28% | 38% | 62% | 78% | 3% | 11% | 7% | 52% | 33% | 14% | 46% | 36% | 15% | 45% | 28% | 21% | 6% | 52% | 48% | 46% | 27% | 27% | 48% | 50% | 51% | 44% | 34% | 66% |