| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #24006 |
|
2 Weeks Till Primary Votes Are Counted, Incumbent Republican Duncan D. Hunter Leads Nearest Challenger by 4:1 in CA-50:
Duncan D. Hunter is certain to advance to a November runoff in California's 50th U.S. Congressional District, but will his challenger be Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, Democrat Patrick Malloy, or Republican Bill Wells? Hunter leads Campa-Najjar 43% to 10%, according to this new SurveyUSA poll, conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV and the Union Tribune in San Diego. But, Malloy at 7%, Wells at 6%, Democrat Josh Butner at 5%, and S. "Shamus" Sayed at 3% are clustered closely enough that it is difficult to say with certainty who will oppose Hunter in November. Under California rules, even if Hunter receives more than 50% of the vote in the primary, the top 2 finishers advance. Among voters who say the most important issues in 2018 is a border wall between the United States and Mexico, Hunter gets 68% of the vote. Hunter is currently under FBI investigation for alleged misuse of campaign funds. Among voters who say this has a "major impact" on how they are voting, Hunter finishes 3rd, behind Campa-Najjar and Malloy. Among voters who say the FBI investigation has "no impact" on their vote, Hunter polls at 72%. In California's 50th Congressional District, President Donald Trump's approval rating is 55%. Hunter's approval rating is 50%. Of those who approve of Trump, 73% vote for Hunter, 9% back fellow Republican Wells. About: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from California's 50th Congressional District 05/15/18 through 05/20/18 using voter-list sample supplied by Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 567 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before the 06/05/18 deadline. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (62% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of likely voters) were interviewed by live operators, who hand-dialed cell-phone numbers, secured the respondent's cooperation, qualified the respondent, interviewed the respondent and remained on the phone until the conclusion of the interview. Duncan D. Hunter is the son of Duncan Lee Hunter, who served 14 terms in the U.S. House of Representatives. |
| 1 | In the primary election for U.S. House of Representatives from California's 50th Congressional District, how do you vote? Republican Duncan Hunter? Republican S. "Shamus" Sayed? Republican Bill Wells? Democrat Josh Butner Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar? Democrat Patrick Malloy? Or no party preference candidate Richard Kahle? |
| 567 Likely Primary Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Likely | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Top Issue | Trump Approval | Hunter Approval | Investigation Impact On | 2016 Presidentia | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Already | Likely | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Wall | DREAM | Tax Laws | Healthca | Economy | Presiden | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Major | Minor | None | Trump | Clinton | Hunter | Malloy | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Duncan Hunter (R) | 43% | 43% | 43% | 36% | 28% | 42% | 55% | 32% | 50% | 41% | 50% | 51% | 41% | 71% | 8% | 29% | 72% | 27% | 4% | 68% | 43% | ** | 17% | 50% | 36% | 73% | 6% | 81% | 5% | 12% | 40% | 72% | 72% | 4% | 73% | 1% | 37% | 51% | 38% | 51% | 51% | 39% | 21% | 56% |
| S. "Shamus" Sayed (R) | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 3% | ** | 6% | 6% | 0% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| Bill Wells (R) | 6% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 8% | 2% | 10% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 12% | ** | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 3% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 11% | 4% | 6% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 8% |
| Josh Butner (D) | 5% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 0% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 2% | 2% | ** | 8% | 5% | 9% | 1% | 11% | 1% | 11% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 10% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 6% |
| Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) | 10% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 2% | 25% | 7% | 1% | 15% | 27% | 1% | 8% | ** | 8% | 2% | 18% | 0% | 23% | 0% | 24% | 22% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 29% | 1% | 28% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 15% | 6% | 13% |
| Patrick Malloy (D) | 7% | 6% | 7% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 4% | 11% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 9% | 6% | 1% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 10% | 14% | 3% | 11% | ** | 13% | 7% | 8% | 1% | 15% | 1% | 16% | 13% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 19% | 1% | 23% | 11% | 3% | 9% | 3% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 5% |
| Richard Kahle (NPP) | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | ** | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| Undecided | 25% | 25% | 26% | 30% | 39% | 30% | 12% | 35% | 19% | 25% | 25% | 18% | 27% | 13% | 32% | 43% | 11% | 34% | 38% | 17% | 19% | ** | 45% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 41% | 9% | 32% | 34% | 29% | 13% | 14% | 35% | 11% | 33% | 20% | 22% | 29% | 23% | 18% | 23% | 53% | 9% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Primary Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 19% | 21% | 24% | 37% | 39% | 61% | 79% | 17% | 16% | 84% | 48% | 31% | 19% | 45% | 34% | 18% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 9% | 17% | 29% | 55% | 41% | 50% | 38% | 32% | 26% | 40% | 53% | 32% | 57% | 25% | 9% | 40% | 50% | 22% | 32% | 46% | 38% | 62% |
| 2 | Which one of the following issues will be most important in determining how you vote in this election? Whether or not a border wall should be built? The DREAM Act and DACA recipients? Recent changes to tax laws? Recent changes to healthcare laws? The economy? The job the President is doing? Or some other issue? |
| 567 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Likely | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Top Issue | Trump Approval | Hunter Approval | Investigation Impact On | 2016 Presidentia | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Already | Likely | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Wall | DREAM | Tax Laws | Healthca | Economy | Presiden | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Major | Minor | None | Trump | Clinton | Hunter | Malloy | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Border Wall | 19% | 17% | 20% | 25% | 10% | 19% | 20% | 17% | 20% | 17% | 29% | 17% | 19% | 30% | 7% | 11% | 29% | 14% | 2% | 100% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | 29% | 6% | 28% | 10% | 7% | 30% | 22% | 29% | 7% | 27% | 7% | 26% | 21% | 16% | 20% | 23% | 18% | 10% | 24% |
| DREAM Act And DACA | 9% | 10% | 9% | 14% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 6% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 0% | 100% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 15% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 7% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 10% |
| Changes To Tax Laws | 5% | 4% | 6% | 0% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 0% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| Changes To Healthcare | 9% | 7% | 11% | 26% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 16% | 5% | 10% | 3% | 10% | 9% | 4% | 17% | 12% | 3% | 13% | 20% | 0% | 0% | ** | 100% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 16% | 5% | 13% | 10% | 11% | 7% | 4% | 17% | 4% | 17% | 1% | 10% | 11% | 7% | 10% | 10% | 19% | 4% |
| Economy | 17% | 15% | 18% | 6% | 27% | 25% | 10% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 21% | 29% | 14% | 20% | 13% | 16% | 20% | 12% | 17% | 0% | 0% | ** | 0% | 100% | 0% | 20% | 11% | 22% | 11% | 12% | 22% | 18% | 19% | 12% | 20% | 10% | 9% | 16% | 19% | 10% | 11% | 22% | 22% | 13% |
| Job The President Is Doing | 29% | 33% | 26% | 22% | 23% | 25% | 39% | 23% | 33% | 31% | 26% | 22% | 31% | 23% | 36% | 34% | 25% | 33% | 34% | 0% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 100% | 24% | 38% | 24% | 39% | 37% | 17% | 32% | 26% | 40% | 25% | 37% | 36% | 27% | 31% | 38% | 30% | 28% | 15% | 37% |
| Other | 7% | 7% | 6% | 2% | 13% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 11% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 0% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 10% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 12% | 4% |
| Not Sure | 5% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 9% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 0% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 19% | 21% | 24% | 37% | 39% | 61% | 79% | 17% | 16% | 84% | 48% | 31% | 19% | 45% | 34% | 18% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 9% | 17% | 29% | 55% | 41% | 50% | 38% | 32% | 26% | 40% | 53% | 32% | 57% | 25% | 9% | 40% | 50% | 22% | 32% | 46% | 38% | 62% |
| 3 | Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? |
| 567 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Likely | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Top Issue | Trump Approval | Hunter Approval | Investigation Impact On | 2016 Presidentia | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Already | Likely | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Wall | DREAM | Tax Laws | Healthca | Economy | Presiden | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Major | Minor | None | Trump | Clinton | Hunter | Malloy | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Approve | 55% | 59% | 51% | 48% | 37% | 57% | 68% | 42% | 63% | 52% | 66% | 58% | 54% | 91% | 8% | 44% | 93% | 32% | 9% | 85% | 52% | ** | 27% | 65% | 46% | 100% | 0% | 91% | 16% | 22% | 58% | 81% | 94% | 2% | 87% | 5% | 60% | 59% | 51% | 61% | 60% | 53% | 36% | 66% |
| Disapprove | 41% | 37% | 45% | 47% | 56% | 40% | 30% | 52% | 34% | 44% | 30% | 41% | 41% | 7% | 90% | 47% | 6% | 62% | 91% | 13% | 48% | ** | 70% | 28% | 54% | 0% | 100% | 7% | 83% | 75% | 36% | 16% | 4% | 98% | 11% | 95% | 37% | 36% | 47% | 38% | 39% | 42% | 57% | 31% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 9% | 1% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 0% | ** | 3% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 19% | 21% | 24% | 37% | 39% | 61% | 79% | 17% | 16% | 84% | 48% | 31% | 19% | 45% | 34% | 18% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 9% | 17% | 29% | 55% | 41% | 50% | 38% | 32% | 26% | 40% | 53% | 32% | 57% | 25% | 9% | 40% | 50% | 22% | 32% | 46% | 38% | 62% |
| 4 | Do you approve or disapprove of the Job Duncan Hunter is doing as US Representative? |
| 567 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Likely | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Top Issue | Trump Approval | Hunter Approval | Investigation Impact On | 2016 Presidentia | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Already | Likely | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Wall | DREAM | Tax Laws | Healthca | Economy | Presiden | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Major | Minor | None | Trump | Clinton | Hunter | Malloy | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Approve | 50% | 51% | 49% | 46% | 37% | 48% | 61% | 41% | 56% | 48% | 57% | 62% | 48% | 80% | 10% | 38% | 83% | 30% | 6% | 75% | 53% | ** | 25% | 66% | 42% | 82% | 9% | 100% | 0% | 11% | 53% | 81% | 82% | 6% | 84% | 3% | 43% | 57% | 46% | 64% | 52% | 46% | 34% | 60% |
| Disapprove | 38% | 37% | 40% | 36% | 44% | 43% | 34% | 40% | 37% | 40% | 32% | 32% | 40% | 14% | 77% | 39% | 12% | 52% | 82% | 21% | 38% | ** | 53% | 25% | 51% | 11% | 77% | 0% | 100% | 77% | 35% | 10% | 11% | 84% | 12% | 90% | 46% | 33% | 41% | 27% | 40% | 44% | 42% | 36% |
| Not Sure | 12% | 13% | 11% | 18% | 19% | 9% | 6% | 19% | 7% | 12% | 12% | 6% | 13% | 6% | 12% | 23% | 5% | 18% | 12% | 4% | 9% | ** | 22% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 4% | 7% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 10% | 24% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 19% | 21% | 24% | 37% | 39% | 61% | 79% | 17% | 16% | 84% | 48% | 31% | 19% | 45% | 34% | 18% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 9% | 17% | 29% | 55% | 41% | 50% | 38% | 32% | 26% | 40% | 53% | 32% | 57% | 25% | 9% | 40% | 50% | 22% | 32% | 46% | 38% | 62% |
| 5 | Duncan Hunter is currently under investigation by the FBI for the alleged misuse of campaign funds. Does this have a major impact on your vote? A minor impact on your vote? Or does it not impact your vote at all? |
| 567 Likely Primary Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Likely | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Top Issue | Trump Approval | Hunter Approval | Investigation Impact On | 2016 Presidentia | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Already | Likely | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Wall | DREAM | Tax Laws | Healthca | Economy | Presiden | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Major | Minor | None | Trump | Clinton | Hunter | Malloy | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Major | 32% | 31% | 33% | 29% | 40% | 32% | 29% | 34% | 30% | 31% | 33% | 25% | 33% | 16% | 57% | 29% | 13% | 44% | 57% | 11% | 51% | ** | 33% | 23% | 41% | 13% | 58% | 7% | 64% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 15% | 58% | 15% | 65% | 29% | 31% | 32% | 34% | 27% | 31% | 34% | 31% |
| Minor | 26% | 22% | 29% | 30% | 27% | 26% | 23% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 20% | 26% | 26% | 27% | 24% | 29% | 25% | 28% | 24% | 41% | 15% | ** | 29% | 35% | 15% | 27% | 22% | 27% | 23% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 27% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 22% | 31% | 23% | 18% | 28% | 29% | 28% | 24% |
| No Impact | 40% | 44% | 36% | 36% | 29% | 41% | 46% | 33% | 44% | 38% | 44% | 48% | 38% | 54% | 14% | 40% | 60% | 28% | 12% | 45% | 33% | ** | 28% | 42% | 44% | 58% | 16% | 64% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 57% | 13% | 58% | 12% | 40% | 36% | 43% | 44% | 44% | 38% | 32% | 44% |
| Not Sure | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 7% | 2% | 1% | ** | 10% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Primary Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 19% | 21% | 24% | 37% | 39% | 61% | 79% | 17% | 16% | 84% | 48% | 31% | 19% | 45% | 34% | 18% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 9% | 17% | 29% | 55% | 41% | 50% | 38% | 32% | 26% | 40% | 53% | 32% | 57% | 25% | 9% | 40% | 50% | 22% | 32% | 46% | 38% | 62% |