| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10742 |
| Republican Fine & Independent Lee Split Opposition in MN5; DFL Ellison Holds House Seat for Democrats: In an election in Minnesota's 5th Congressional District today, DFL Candidate Keith Ellison is elected to fill the open House seat of retiring 14-term congressman Martin Sabo, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 806 likely voters conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis. Ellison gets 49% of the vote. 51% of the vote goes elsewhere: 24% to Republican Alan Fine, 22% to Independence Party candidate Tammy Lee, and 5% to other candidates, or undecided voters. 70% of Democrats vote Democratic. 23% of Democrats vote for the Independent Lee. 74% of Republicans vote Republican. Among Independents, Ellison gets 43%, Lee gets 28%, Fine gets 22%. Democrats outnumber Republicans among MN5 likely voters by 53% to 23%. The House seat is open. Incumbent DFL Martin Sabo is retiring after 14 terms. In 2004, Sabo was re-elected with 70% of the vote. |
| Filtering: 1,000 registered voters from Minnesota's 5th Congressional District, chosen using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 10/31/06 through 11/4/06. Of them, 806 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters. |
| 1 | If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Alan Fine? DFL candidate Keith Ellison? Green Party candidate Jay Pond? Or Independence Party candidate Tammy Lee? |
| 806 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | Race | Party | Ideology | Education | Income | Bush Job Approva | Generation * | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | White | Black | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | No Colle | Some Col | College | Grad Sch | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Approve | Disappro | Gen Y | Gen X | Jones | Boomers | Mature | |
| Fine (R) | 24% | 28% | 20% | 22% | 23% | 25% | 26% | 24% | 12% | 74% | 3% | 22% | 70% | 19% | 2% | 24% | 25% | 23% | 22% | 23% | 27% | 20% | 77% | 6% | 32% | 18% | 25% | 23% | 26% |
| Ellison (DFL) | 49% | 44% | 54% | 55% | 49% | 47% | 45% | 48% | 67% | 7% | 70% | 43% | 11% | 48% | 74% | 47% | 47% | 48% | 52% | 51% | 48% | 51% | 5% | 64% | 50% | 55% | 49% | 46% | 45% |
| Pond (G) | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Lee (I) | 22% | 24% | 21% | 17% | 21% | 25% | 25% | 23% | 16% | 15% | 23% | 28% | 16% | 28% | 19% | 21% | 22% | 23% | 21% | 20% | 20% | 25% | 13% | 25% | 16% | 19% | 20% | 27% | 25% |
| Undecided | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 24% | 28% | 30% | 18% | 89% | 5% | 23% | 53% | 22% | 21% | 39% | 33% | 11% | 30% | 28% | 31% | 22% | 40% | 34% | 24% | 74% | 9% | 26% | 25% | 22% | 18% |