Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17454
Open Seat in WA-03: Democrat Heck Closes-In, but Republican Herrera Still Slight Favorite for GOP Take-Away: In an election for US House of Representatives for the open seat in Washington State's 3rd Congressional District today, 10/27/10, Republican Jaime Herrera edges Democrat Denny Heck 50% to 46%, according to a 4th pre-election tracking poll conducted by SurveyUSA KING-TV in Seattle.

Democrats today are more likely than in 3 previous polls to identify themselves as certain voters, and the party breakdown of this poll reflects that. Heck has some traction among voters age 50 to 64, where he had trailed in August, September and early October, but now leads. Heck polls above 50% among women for the first time. And, Heck's advantage among Moderates has grown to 25 points. But: Herrera is still backed by 91% of those with a favorable impression of the Tea Party, 80% of pro-life voters, 56% of men and 55% of Independents.

Since 1960, the 3rd District has been held by a Republican for 2 terms, from 1995 to 1999. Incumbent Democrat Brian Baird, elected in 1998, is not seeking a 7th term. In a 6-person primary 08/17/10, 54% of votes went to a Republican, 42% of votes went to a Democrat.

Filtering: 800 registered voters from Washington's 3rd Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/24/10 through 10/26/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 640 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote before the 11/02/10 deadline.
[Candidate names rotated]
If you were filling out your ballot in the election for U.S. House of Representatives today, who would you vote for? Republican Jaime Herrera? Or Democrat Denny Heck?
640 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementVote in Midterms2010 Enthusiasm Vs PriorCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeAlready Voted?
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniRarelyUsuallyAlwaysMoreLessSameYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KYesNo
Jaime Herrera (R)50%56%45%55%55%46%49%55%47%50%******90%11%55%89%36%11%91%6%65%48%65%50%49%62%31%39%46%55%65%52%35%80%28%55%41%50%51%50%51%
Denny Heck (D)46%40%51%37%42%51%47%40%50%46%******9%87%37%8%61%86%5%91%32%43%31%46%49%35%64%58%52%40%33%44%60%17%69%41%56%44%47%46%46%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%48%52%15%26%36%23%41%59%89%3%3%5%32%36%32%37%39%21%35%38%21%7%9%42%49%52%9%38%48%52%38%24%38%42%54%57%38%36%64%51%49%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.