Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17080
KS-04: Republican Pompeo Atop Democrat Goyle in Fight for Tiahrt's Open Seat: In an election for the open US House of Representatives seat in Kansas' 4th Congressional District today, 09/16/10, Republican Mike Pompeo defeats Democrat Raj Goyle 50% to 40%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KWCH-TV Wichita.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, Pompeo is up an insignificant 1 point; Goyle is down an insignificant 2. Pompeo has gained ground among the oldest, traditionally the most reliable voters, where he had trailed by 16, now leads by 4. Goyle offsets this by cutting into Pompeo's lead among middle-aged voters, where Pompeo had led by 34 points, now leads by 20. 18% of Republicans today cross over to vote for Goyle, down from 22% last month; 12% of Democrats cross over to vote for Pompeo, up from 6% last month. Independents today lean slightly toward Goyle, favoring the Democrat by 7 points, up from a nominal 2-point lead 1 month ago.

Incumbent Republican Todd Tiahrt, first elected in 1994, did not run for re-election to the US House in order to run in the Republican primary for US Senate, where he was defeated by KS-01 Representative Jerry Moran.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults from Kansas' 4th Congressional District 09/14/10 through 09/15/10. Of them, 782 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 538 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election.
[Candidate names rotated]
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, who would you vote for? Republican Mike Pompeo? Democrat Raj Goyle? Libertarian David Moffett? Or Reform Party candidate Susan Ducey?
538 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Mike Pompeo (R)50%54%46%66%55%43%47%57%45%51%******72%12%39%71%29%16%74%9%50%47%53%45%55%44%37%68%28%56%40%44%53%
Raj Goyle (D)40%36%44%22%35%47%43%31%45%39%******18%81%45%18%64%77%13%87%41%34%37%44%33%46%58%22%63%36%49%44%39%
David Moffett (L)3%4%2%5%2%3%4%3%3%3%******2%3%8%4%2%0%5%1%2%5%4%2%3%2%4%4%3%2%4%5%2%
Susan Ducey (RP)4%4%3%7%4%4%1%5%3%4%******4%1%6%4%2%7%6%1%2%3%4%4%4%4%0%4%3%4%2%2%4%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%10%29%33%28%40%60%88%4%4%4%56%28%15%51%34%9%43%26%22%9%54%46%63%21%16%54%44%61%37%37%63%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.