| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #7443 |
| CA Propositions 75, 76, 77 Defeated; Propositions 73, 74 Could Go Either Way: On the Eve of a Special Election, California voters defeat Propositions 75, 76 and 77, but divide on Propositions 73 and 74, according to a final SurveyUSA tracking poll. Support for Propositions 73, 74, 75, and 77 continues to erode. (Proposition 76 is addressed separately in the next box.) Proposition 73, on parental notification for abortions on minors, led by 11 points 1 week ago, and leads today by 4 points. It may hang-on and win, but if so, by the narrowest of margins. Extending the trend line available here, 73 could also be defeated, also by the narrowest of margins. Neither result should surprise. 73 is tied among women and whites. It is opposed 2:1 in the Bay Area, supported elsewhere in California. Proposition 74, on teacher tenure, trailed last week by 1 point and trails today by 3 points. Neither a narrow victory nor a narrow defeat would surprise on 74. Union members oppose Proposition 74 by 24 points. Non-union members support 74 by 9 points. Proposition 75, on union dues, last week led by 1 point, today trails by 9, a 10-point move to "No." 75 is defeated, in large part based on the collapse of support among women. Proposition 77, on redistricting, trailed last week by 9 points, trails today by 15 points, a 6-point erosion. 77 is defeated, as Latinos and African American voters abandon it in the campaign's final weeks. Republicans have strongly supported all measures over 4 tracking polls in the last 5 weeks. Democrats, who initially weakly opposed all measures, now strongly oppose all measures. |
| Further Results of Parallel-Testing on Alternate Question Wording for Proposition 76: In SurveyUSA's most recent 11/1/05 release on Proposition 76, SurveyUSA presented 3 different outcomes for this Ballot Measure, depending on how the question was summarized to the survey respondent. SurveyUSA's analysis of its "split-ballot" experiment is described by SurveyUSA here, and separately is placed into a larger context, and analyzed in exceptional detail at the blog "Mystery Pollster," first here (Part I), then here (Part II), and then here (Part III). In the interviews conducted 11/4/05 to 11/6/05, for this final SurveyUSA release, SurveyUSA continued with its 3-way split-ballot experiment. SurveyUSA's original wording, Version A, shows Proposition 76 defeated by 8 points (45% Yes, 53% No). Version B and C, which in the last release, produced divergent results, today produce virtually identical results (Version B shows "No" winning by 20 points today, 39% Yes to 59% No; Version C shows "No" winning by 21 points today, 39% Yes to 60% No). As Version B and C converged during the final field period to produce statistically indistinguishable results, SurveyUSA chose here to combine B and C and present the average of B and C as SurveyUSA's final forecast, and best estimate of what voters will do tomorrow, on Election Day. Because of this choice, there is no "clean" tracking graph that SurveyUSA can display on Proposition 76. The data is presented below, fully crosstabbed, but without track points. All other ballot measures have track points. Click the "T" on the "Interactive Crosstabs" page to see the tracking graphs. |
| Filtering: 3,600 California adults were interviewed 11/4/05 - 11/6/05. Of them, 2,922 were registered voters. Of them, 2,056 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 73. 2,063 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 74. 2,062 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 75, and 2,059 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 77. Data for Proposition 76 represents a subsample of 1,363 likely voters who were asked either Version B or Version C of Proposition 76 ballot summary. Data from respondents who were asked the Version A summary of Proposition 76 are highlighted in the box above, but not presented in the Crosstabs below. Crosstabs reflect "likely" voters. 27% of the "likely" voters report having already voted. |
 | First, Proposition 73. Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion. If the special election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, would you vote Yes on Proposition 73? Or would you vote No? |
| 2056 Likely Voters | All | Already Voted? | Gender | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Arnold Schwarzenegger Ov | Abortion | Union | Region | Geocoding | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.2 pct points | No | Yes | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Grad Sch | College | Some Col | No Colle | Approve | Disappro | Not Sure | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | Urban | Suburban | Rural | |
| Yes | 51% | 51% | 51% | 53% | 49% | 46% | 51% | 51% | 58% | 50% | 45% | 54% | 52% | 76% | 35% | 45% | 83% | 46% | 19% | 43% | 51% | 54% | 58% | 78% | 32% | ** | 85% | 33% | 48% | 53% | 58% | 54% | 60% | 34% | 47% | 53% | ** |
| No | 47% | 47% | 48% | 46% | 49% | 52% | 47% | 49% | 41% | 49% | 53% | 43% | 46% | 23% | 64% | 54% | 16% | 52% | 79% | 57% | 48% | 44% | 39% | 21% | 66% | ** | 13% | 65% | 51% | 46% | 41% | 44% | 39% | 64% | 51% | 45% | ** |
| Undecided | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | ** | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | ** |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 73% | 27% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 33% | 25% | 20% | 58% | 6% | 24% | 12% | 34% | 44% | 20% | 28% | 50% | 20% | 26% | 26% | 30% | 18% | 39% | 57% | 4% | 32% | 65% | 33% | 66% | 20% | 38% | 17% | 25% | 37% | 58% | 4% |
 | Next, Proposition 74. Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 74? Or would you vote No? |
| 2063 Likely Voters | All | Already Voted? | Gender | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Arnold Schwarzenegger Ov | Abortion | Union | Region | Geocoding | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.2 pct points | No | Yes | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Grad Sch | College | Some Col | No Colle | Approve | Disappro | Not Sure | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | Urban | Suburban | Rural | |
| Yes | 48% | 47% | 52% | 53% | 44% | 41% | 52% | 46% | 52% | 54% | 32% | 39% | 48% | 77% | 25% | 52% | 73% | 46% | 23% | 42% | 53% | 49% | 49% | 89% | 19% | ** | 64% | 39% | 38% | 54% | 53% | 50% | 53% | 38% | 45% | 50% | ** |
| No | 51% | 52% | 48% | 46% | 55% | 57% | 47% | 54% | 46% | 46% | 66% | 60% | 52% | 23% | 74% | 47% | 27% | 53% | 76% | 58% | 46% | 50% | 50% | 11% | 79% | ** | 34% | 60% | 62% | 45% | 47% | 49% | 45% | 61% | 54% | 49% | ** |
| Undecided | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | ** | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ** |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 73% | 27% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 33% | 25% | 20% | 58% | 6% | 24% | 12% | 34% | 44% | 20% | 28% | 50% | 20% | 26% | 26% | 30% | 18% | 39% | 57% | 4% | 32% | 64% | 33% | 66% | 20% | 39% | 17% | 25% | 37% | 58% | 4% |
 | Next, Proposition 75. Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 75? Or would you vote no? |
| 2062 Likely Voters | All | Already Voted? | Gender | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Arnold Schwarzenegger Ov | Abortion | Union | Region | Geocoding | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.2 pct points | No | Yes | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Grad Sch | College | Some Col | No Colle | Approve | Disappro | Not Sure | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | Urban | Suburban | Rural | |
| Yes | 45% | 44% | 50% | 50% | 41% | 36% | 48% | 45% | 51% | 52% | 26% | 33% | 43% | 75% | 20% | 51% | 71% | 42% | 18% | 41% | 51% | 46% | 42% | 87% | 16% | ** | 65% | 35% | 33% | 51% | 50% | 47% | 52% | 34% | 42% | 47% | ** |
| No | 54% | 55% | 50% | 49% | 58% | 61% | 51% | 55% | 49% | 47% | 71% | 66% | 56% | 23% | 79% | 48% | 27% | 57% | 81% | 58% | 48% | 53% | 57% | 12% | 83% | ** | 34% | 64% | 66% | 47% | 49% | 52% | 46% | 64% | 57% | 52% | ** |
| Undecided | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ** | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ** |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 73% | 27% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 33% | 25% | 20% | 58% | 6% | 23% | 12% | 34% | 44% | 20% | 28% | 50% | 20% | 26% | 26% | 30% | 18% | 39% | 57% | 4% | 32% | 64% | 33% | 66% | 20% | 39% | 17% | 25% | 37% | 58% | 4% |
| 4 | Next, Proposition 76. Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. The Governor would be granted new authority to reduce state spending, [including school funding,] during certain fiscal situations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no? |
| 1363 Likely Voters | All | Already Voted? | Gender | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Arnold Schwarzenegger Ov | Abortion | Union | Region | Geocoding | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.7 pct points | No | Yes | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Grad Sch | College | Some Col | No Colle | Approve | Disappro | Not Sure | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | Urban | Suburban | Rural | |
| Yes | 39% | 37% | 44% | 46% | 32% | 29% | 41% | 39% | 46% | 45% | 20% | 30% | 34% | 71% | 14% | 41% | 67% | 35% | 10% | 36% | 44% | 40% | 34% | 87% | 7% | ** | 60% | 28% | 30% | 44% | 44% | 41% | 46% | 26% | 37% | 40% | ** |
| No | 59% | 61% | 55% | 53% | 65% | 67% | 57% | 60% | 53% | 54% | 78% | 67% | 62% | 27% | 85% | 58% | 32% | 63% | 89% | 62% | 55% | 58% | 64% | 12% | 92% | ** | 38% | 70% | 69% | 55% | 55% | 57% | 53% | 71% | 61% | 59% | ** |
| Undecided | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | ** | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | ** |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 74% | 26% | 47% | 53% | 23% | 32% | 24% | 20% | 58% | 6% | 25% | 11% | 34% | 44% | 20% | 28% | 50% | 19% | 26% | 26% | 30% | 18% | 38% | 57% | 4% | 32% | 65% | 33% | 66% | 20% | 38% | 18% | 24% | 37% | 58% | 5% |
 | Finally, Proposition 77. Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on 77? Or would you vote no? |
| 2059 Likely Voters | All | Already Voted? | Gender | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Arnold Schwarzenegger Ov | Abortion | Union | Region | Geocoding | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.2 pct points | No | Yes | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Grad Sch | College | Some Col | No Colle | Approve | Disappro | Not Sure | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | Urban | Suburban | Rural | |
| Yes | 41% | 39% | 47% | 49% | 34% | 35% | 42% | 42% | 47% | 48% | 20% | 32% | 41% | 66% | 21% | 47% | 63% | 40% | 17% | 39% | 45% | 44% | 37% | 77% | 17% | ** | 56% | 34% | 34% | 46% | 48% | 43% | 43% | 34% | 38% | 44% | ** |
| No | 56% | 58% | 52% | 50% | 62% | 62% | 56% | 56% | 52% | 51% | 77% | 64% | 58% | 32% | 77% | 50% | 34% | 58% | 80% | 59% | 53% | 54% | 61% | 21% | 81% | ** | 42% | 64% | 65% | 52% | 51% | 55% | 55% | 63% | 60% | 54% | ** |
| Undecided | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ** | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ** |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 73% | 27% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 33% | 25% | 20% | 58% | 6% | 24% | 12% | 34% | 44% | 20% | 28% | 50% | 20% | 26% | 26% | 30% | 18% | 38% | 57% | 4% | 32% | 65% | 33% | 66% | 20% | 39% | 17% | 25% | 37% | 58% | 4% |