| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25503 |
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4 Weeks till Voting in CA Begins, No Telling if Duncan Hunter's US House Seat will Stay Red with Issa or Flip Blue with Campa-Najjar; In-Person CA-50 Election-Day Voters Back Darrell by *49* Points; But Twice As Many Will Vote By Mail, And Ammar Holds Those Cards: 2 months to Election Day, the contest between Republican Darrell Issa and Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar is anyone's guess, with way too many variables in play to begin to handicap the winner, according to SurveyUSA's latest polling conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV in San Diego and the Union Tribune. At this hour, the contest stands: * Issa 46%. * Campa-Najjar 45%. * Of those voting for Campa-Najjar, 77% do so enthusiastically; just 15% have reservations. * Of those voting for Issa, just 59% do so enthusiastically; 34% have reservations. * Of those voting for Issa, 65% are voting "for" Issa, 28% are voting "against" Campa-Najjar. * Of those voting for Campa-Najjar, 68% are voting "for" Campa-Najjar, 27% are voting "against" Issa. * 58% of likely voters will vote by mail. Of them, Campa-Najjar leads by 21 points, 56% to 35%. * 27% of likely voters will vote on Election Day, in person. Of them, Issa leads by 49 points, 69% to 20%. * 12% of likely voters will vote in person but before Election Day. Of them, Issa leads by 12 points. * Among voters who are "100% certain" to vote, Campa-Najjar edges Issa 47% to 45%, though still within the survey's sources of error. * Among voters who are likely but not certain they will vote, Issa leads by 17 points, 49% to 32%. * Issa must convert likely voters to certain voters if he is to prevent Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi from padding her majority. Issa leads by 21 points among men, Campa-Najjar leads by 18 points among women --- a 39-point Gender Gap. The older the electorate, the better Issa should do. Issa leads by a nominal 2 points among voters age 50+, still within the survey's sources of error. Campa-Najjar leads by a nominal 2 points among voters under age 50. The district has more Republicans than Democrats. Issa holds 84% of the Republican base. Campa-Najjar holds 86% of the Democratic base. Campa-Najjar leads by 13 points among Independents and leads by 16 points among moderates. Among all registered voters in CA-50 (not just likely voters), Issa has a Zero Net Favorability Rating. 32% of voters view Issa favorably; 32% of voters view Issa unfavorably. Among all registered voters in CA-50, Campa-Najjar has a Plus 11 Net Favorability Rating; 37% of voters view Campa-Najjar favorably; 26% of voters view Campa-Najjar unfavorably. In 2016, Donald Trump carried CA-50 by 15 points. Today, 8 weeks till Election Day 2020, the incumbent President trails Democratic challenger Joe Biden by 3 points, 48% to 45%, an 18-point turn to the left. About: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 voting-age individuals from California's 50th US Congressional District 09/04/2020 through 09/07/2020. The research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. 59% of likely voters were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Sample for this portion of the electorate was drawn from voter files of those known to be registered in the district using Aristotle of Washington DC. 41% of likely voters were interviewed online, using sample drawn from Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Online sample drawn was of adults, who were qualified as registered voters during the course of the survey. When the 2 sample sources are combined, 591 respondents are registered to vote in CA-50 and of them, 508 are judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day, 11/03/2020, barring something unforeseen. The most recent congressman to represent the district, Republican Duncan Hunter, was sentenced to 11 months in federal prison after pleading guilty to conspiracy. Hunter's wife Margaret was sentenced to 8 months of home confinement after also pleading guilty to conspiracy. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of California? |
| 650 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Yes | 91% | 92% | 90% | 74% | 94% | 96% | 100% | 84% | 98% | 92% | 91% | 95% | 95% | 89% | 98% | 93% | 92% | 95% | 89% | 95% | 92% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 97% | 98% | 75% | 91% | 97% | 80% | 91% | 96% | 88% | 92% | 98% | 78% | 87% | 93% | 87% | 83% | 98% |
| No | 8% | 8% | 8% | 23% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 14% | 2% | 7% | 9% | 3% | 5% | 11% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 11% | 4% | 7% | 7% | - | - | - | - | - | 2% | 2% | 23% | 8% | 3% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 11% | 7% | 1% | 20% | 11% | 7% | 11% | 16% | 1% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - | - | - | - | - | 2% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 48% | 52% | 26% | 22% | 28% | 25% | 47% | 53% | 76% | 19% | 39% | 34% | 22% | 14% | 17% | 37% | 14% | 10% | 31% | 37% | 24% | 15% | 77% | 58% | 12% | 27% | 41% | 35% | 17% | 37% | 46% | 26% | 28% | 46% | 28% | 71% | 63% | 37% | 18% | 57% | 24% | 47% | 53% |
 | Is your opinion of Darrell Issa extremely favorable? Favorable? Neutral? Unfavorable? Extremely unfavorable? Or, do you have no opinion of him? |
| 591 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Extremely Favorable | 14% | 18% | 11% | 9% | 18% | 10% | 19% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 16% | 27% | 4% | 9% | 45% | 24% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 34% | 5% | 5% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 22% | 28% | 3% | 18% | 11% | 16% | 11% | 14% | 16% | 17% | 13% | 18% | 7% | 22% | 12% | 15% | 10% | 18% |
| Favorable | 18% | 20% | 16% | 15% | 12% | 26% | 15% | 14% | 21% | 18% | 13% | 28% | 7% | 17% | 32% | 32% | 13% | 11% | 0% | 32% | 13% | 7% | 11% | 20% | 14% | 20% | 34% | 32% | 4% | 19% | 19% | 17% | 14% | 22% | 17% | 25% | 15% | 20% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 25% | 16% | 19% |
| Neutral | 23% | 25% | 21% | 23% | 33% | 24% | 13% | 28% | 19% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 20% | 22% | 9% | 26% | 31% | 26% | 8% | 18% | 31% | 19% | 34% | 21% | 22% | 25% | 27% | 21% | 16% | 20% | 25% | 21% | 26% | 19% | 24% | 22% | 23% | 20% | 31% | 25% | 24% | 20% | 34% | 14% |
| Unfavorable | 12% | 12% | 12% | 15% | 5% | 12% | 15% | 10% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 6% | 13% | 23% | 5% | 4% | 18% | 12% | 14% | 5% | 18% | 13% | 8% | 14% | 19% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 18% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 8% | 18% | 10% | 6% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 12% |
| Extremely Unfavorable | 20% | 16% | 23% | 14% | 15% | 19% | 29% | 14% | 24% | 21% | 15% | 3% | 42% | 17% | 0% | 2% | 19% | 38% | 62% | 1% | 19% | 47% | 6% | 23% | 27% | 28% | 5% | 1% | 46% | 15% | 17% | 23% | 15% | 17% | 23% | 21% | 19% | 22% | 13% | 8% | 22% | 20% | 9% | 28% |
| No Opinion | 14% | 9% | 18% | 24% | 16% | 9% | 8% | 20% | 9% | 12% | 21% | 12% | 15% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 9% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 10% | 30% | 9% | 6% | 9% | 6% | 11% | 12% | 20% | 16% | 10% | 26% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 16% | 10% | 23% | 21% | 13% | 9% | 20% | 9% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 21% | 23% | 29% | 27% | 44% | 56% | 77% | 19% | 41% | 35% | 22% | 15% | 18% | 38% | 15% | 10% | 33% | 38% | 25% | 15% | 77% | 58% | 12% | 27% | 44% | 38% | 14% | 37% | 49% | 23% | 29% | 49% | 27% | 73% | 68% | 32% | 17% | 59% | 23% | 43% | 57% |
 | If your opinion of Ammar Campa-Najjar is... |
| 591 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Extremely Favorable | 21% | 16% | 25% | 17% | 14% | 21% | 30% | 15% | 25% | 22% | 18% | 5% | 40% | 21% | 8% | 5% | 19% | 40% | 56% | 6% | 19% | 46% | 2% | 24% | 27% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 47% | 20% | 19% | 22% | 13% | 20% | 24% | 23% | 20% | 23% | 15% | 11% | 21% | 26% | 9% | 29% |
| Favorable | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 13% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 16% | 17% | 11% | 7% | 23% | 21% | 6% | 8% | 19% | 19% | 31% | 7% | 19% | 23% | 20% | 15% | 19% | 19% | 9% | 6% | 25% | 23% | 10% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 8% | 21% | 11% |
| Neutral | 21% | 19% | 23% | 20% | 31% | 23% | 13% | 25% | 18% | 21% | 20% | 27% | 14% | 21% | 14% | 27% | 29% | 18% | 1% | 21% | 29% | 12% | 23% | 22% | 24% | 14% | 28% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 30% | 19% | 21% | 21% | 19% | 25% | 22% | 21% | 22% | 26% | 17% |
| Unfavorable | 16% | 22% | 10% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 16% | 15% | 15% | 18% | 23% | 6% | 17% | 29% | 23% | 15% | 5% | 4% | 25% | 15% | 5% | 14% | 17% | 15% | 18% | 25% | 27% | 7% | 22% | 17% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 18% | 13% | 17% | 17% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 22% | 16% | 15% |
| Extremely Unfavorable | 10% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 14% | 8% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 18% | 2% | 10% | 24% | 25% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 24% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 12% | 17% | 20% | 2% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 9% | 13% | 6% | 7% | 11% | 11% | 5% | 14% |
| No Opinion | 17% | 15% | 18% | 24% | 17% | 14% | 14% | 20% | 14% | 15% | 25% | 20% | 16% | 9% | 19% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 8% | 16% | 14% | 12% | 33% | 10% | 7% | 11% | 12% | 20% | 6% | 20% | 21% | 13% | 32% | 11% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 11% | 29% | 31% | 15% | 12% | 22% | 12% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 21% | 23% | 29% | 27% | 44% | 56% | 77% | 19% | 41% | 35% | 22% | 15% | 18% | 38% | 15% | 10% | 33% | 38% | 25% | 15% | 77% | 58% | 12% | 27% | 44% | 38% | 14% | 37% | 49% | 23% | 29% | 49% | 27% | 73% | 68% | 32% | 17% | 59% | 23% | 43% | 57% |
| 4 | California's 50th congressional district will elect a US Representative on November 3. Not everyone has a chance to vote in an election. Which best describes you? |
| 591 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Not Interested | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Not Sure If Time | 4% | 5% | 2% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | 3% | 2% | 11% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 10% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 2% |
| Almost Certain | 15% | 17% | 13% | 21% | 18% | 9% | 13% | 19% | 11% | 12% | 26% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 12% | 12% | 18% | 13% | 5% | 12% | 18% | 10% | 100% | 0% | 14% | 23% | 9% | 17% | 9% | 16% | 15% | 14% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 17% | 14% | 13% | 19% | 35% | 11% | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| 100% Certain | 77% | 74% | 79% | 60% | 73% | 89% | 80% | 67% | 84% | 79% | 67% | 77% | 78% | 76% | 77% | 83% | 76% | 79% | 89% | 80% | 76% | 83% | 0% | 100% | 86% | 77% | 91% | 77% | 85% | 69% | 77% | 78% | 54% | 79% | 86% | 74% | 78% | 82% | 64% | 52% | 81% | 84% | 68% | 83% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 21% | 23% | 29% | 27% | 44% | 56% | 77% | 19% | 41% | 35% | 22% | 15% | 18% | 38% | 15% | 10% | 33% | 38% | 25% | 15% | 77% | 58% | 12% | 27% | 44% | 38% | 14% | 37% | 49% | 23% | 29% | 49% | 27% | 73% | 68% | 32% | 17% | 59% | 23% | 43% | 57% |
 | How will you cast your ballot this year? By mail? In person before election day? Or in person on election day? |
| 508 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| By Mail | 58% | 55% | 60% | 71% | 45% | 47% | 70% | 57% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 47% | 67% | 62% | 40% | 41% | 66% | 58% | 84% | 40% | 66% | 68% | 56% | 58% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 48% | 69% | 63% | 55% | 58% | 57% | 64% | 53% | 63% | 55% | 57% | 58% | 49% | 60% | 54% | 54% | 60% |
| In Person Before Election Day | 12% | 11% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 15% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 13% | 14% | 5% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 20% | 2% | 12% | 9% | 13% | 18% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 12% | 14% | 10% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 13% | 5% | 14% | 13% | 7% | 18% | 9% | 15% | 13% | 11% |
| In Person On Election Day | 27% | 32% | 22% | 18% | 34% | 35% | 17% | 27% | 26% | 25% | 32% | 37% | 14% | 27% | 46% | 44% | 20% | 18% | 10% | 45% | 20% | 15% | 16% | 28% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 39% | 12% | 26% | 25% | 28% | 27% | 20% | 31% | 26% | 28% | 27% | 28% | 25% | 28% | 27% | 27% | 26% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 3% | 6% | 0% | 9% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 18% | 23% | 31% | 28% | 41% | 59% | 78% | 18% | 41% | 35% | 23% | 15% | 18% | 39% | 16% | 10% | 33% | 39% | 25% | 15% | 85% | 58% | 12% | 27% | 44% | 40% | 13% | 37% | 50% | 20% | 31% | 50% | 27% | 73% | 72% | 28% | 14% | 60% | 24% | 41% | 59% |
 | If the November election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? Republican Darrell Issa? or Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar? |
| 508 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Darrell Issa (R) | 46% | 56% | 36% | 34% | 47% | 52% | 45% | 41% | 49% | 45% | 47% | 84% | 8% | 37% | 92% | 83% | 35% | 13% | 0% | 87% | 35% | 8% | 49% | 45% | 35% | 51% | 69% | 87% | 6% | 48% | 51% | 42% | 48% | 46% | 45% | 51% | 45% | 49% | 38% | 54% | 44% | 49% | 43% | 47% |
| Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) | 45% | 35% | 54% | 50% | 37% | 42% | 51% | 43% | 47% | 45% | 46% | 8% | 86% | 50% | 5% | 11% | 51% | 77% | 100% | 8% | 51% | 86% | 32% | 47% | 56% | 39% | 20% | 5% | 88% | 46% | 37% | 50% | 41% | 44% | 46% | 43% | 45% | 45% | 42% | 30% | 49% | 39% | 38% | 50% |
| Undecided | 9% | 9% | 10% | 16% | 16% | 6% | 4% | 16% | 5% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 13% | 2% | 6% | 14% | 10% | 0% | 4% | 14% | 6% | 19% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 12% | 8% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 11% | 5% | 20% | 16% | 7% | 12% | 18% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 18% | 23% | 31% | 28% | 41% | 59% | 78% | 18% | 41% | 35% | 23% | 15% | 18% | 39% | 16% | 10% | 33% | 39% | 25% | 15% | 85% | 58% | 12% | 27% | 44% | 40% | 13% | 37% | 50% | 20% | 31% | 50% | 27% | 73% | 72% | 28% | 14% | 60% | 24% | 41% | 59% |
 | Is yours more a vote FOR Issa? Or is yours more a vote AGAINST Campa-Najjar? |
| 232 Issa Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 7.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| For Issa | 65% | 63% | 68% | 63% | 53% | 72% | 67% | 57% | 70% | 66% | 61% | 66% | 60% | 63% | 81% | 68% | 48% | ** | ** | 74% | 48% | ** | 53% | 67% | 60% | 71% | 71% | 65% | ** | 72% | 60% | 67% | 51% | 72% | 66% | 70% | 63% | 68% | 56% | 66% | 67% | 62% | 62% | 66% |
| Against Campa-Najjar | 28% | 32% | 23% | 34% | 32% | 22% | 31% | 33% | 26% | 27% | 28% | 28% | 26% | 31% | 13% | 27% | 42% | ** | ** | 21% | 42% | ** | 37% | 27% | 33% | 29% | 20% | 27% | ** | 18% | 33% | 26% | 37% | 21% | 29% | 26% | 29% | 27% | 32% | 28% | 28% | 26% | 27% | 29% |
| Not Sure | 7% | 5% | 9% | 3% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 10% | 5% | 6% | 11% | 6% | 14% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 10% | ** | ** | 6% | 10% | ** | 9% | 6% | 7% | 0% | 9% | 8% | ** | 10% | 7% | 6% | 12% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 12% | 6% | 5% | 13% | 11% | 5% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Issa Voters | 100% | 59% | 41% | 14% | 23% | 35% | 28% | 37% | 63% | 77% | 18% | 75% | 7% | 19% | 30% | 33% | 30% | 4% | 0% | 63% | 30% | 4% | 16% | 84% | 44% | 13% | 40% | 84% | 5% | 14% | 41% | 46% | 20% | 31% | 49% | 30% | 70% | 77% | 23% | 17% | 57% | 26% | 39% | 61% |
 | Do you cast your vote for Issa enthusiastically? Or with reservations? |
| 232 Issa Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Enthusiastically | 59% | 58% | 61% | 53% | 47% | 62% | 70% | 49% | 65% | 61% | 54% | 65% | 24% | 50% | 81% | 62% | 39% | ** | ** | 71% | 39% | ** | 45% | 62% | 65% | 56% | 58% | 67% | ** | 71% | 55% | 60% | 53% | 67% | 56% | 68% | 55% | 62% | 48% | 63% | 56% | 64% | 48% | 67% |
| With Reservations | 34% | 40% | 26% | 35% | 41% | 34% | 28% | 39% | 32% | 33% | 40% | 27% | 76% | 47% | 13% | 32% | 53% | ** | ** | 23% | 53% | ** | 43% | 33% | 28% | 38% | 37% | 27% | ** | 18% | 41% | 33% | 37% | 27% | 39% | 28% | 37% | 34% | 35% | 32% | 38% | 28% | 39% | 31% |
| Not Sure | 6% | 2% | 13% | 11% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 12% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 0% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 9% | ** | ** | 6% | 9% | ** | 12% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 7% | ** | 11% | 4% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 17% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 13% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Issa Voters | 100% | 59% | 41% | 14% | 23% | 35% | 28% | 37% | 63% | 77% | 18% | 75% | 7% | 19% | 30% | 33% | 30% | 4% | 0% | 63% | 30% | 4% | 16% | 84% | 44% | 13% | 40% | 84% | 5% | 14% | 41% | 46% | 20% | 31% | 49% | 30% | 70% | 77% | 23% | 17% | 57% | 26% | 39% | 61% |
 | Is yours more a vote FOR Campa-Najjar? Or is yours more a vote AGAINST Issa? |
| 229 Campa-Najjar Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 7.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| For Campa-Najjar | 68% | 63% | 72% | 62% | 73% | 72% | 67% | 67% | 69% | 70% | 62% | 69% | 71% | 59% | ** | ** | 63% | 81% | 67% | 53% | 63% | 75% | 46% | 71% | 64% | 87% | 81% | ** | 72% | 72% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 70% | 66% | 64% | 68% | 66% | 67% | 64% | 65% | 72% | 67% | 69% |
| Against Issa | 27% | 37% | 20% | 33% | 17% | 24% | 30% | 25% | 27% | 26% | 28% | 26% | 24% | 34% | ** | ** | 29% | 15% | 33% | 35% | 29% | 23% | 27% | 26% | 30% | 10% | 19% | ** | 24% | 22% | 24% | 30% | 23% | 23% | 32% | 31% | 27% | 29% | 24% | 26% | 29% | 26% | 23% | 29% |
| Not Sure | 5% | 0% | 8% | 5% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 7% | ** | ** | 8% | 4% | 0% | 12% | 8% | 2% | 27% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 0% | ** | 4% | 6% | 9% | 3% | 10% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 11% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Campa-Najjar Voters | 100% | 37% | 63% | 20% | 18% | 29% | 32% | 39% | 61% | 79% | 18% | 7% | 67% | 25% | 2% | 4% | 45% | 27% | 21% | 6% | 45% | 48% | 11% | 89% | 72% | 10% | 12% | 5% | 79% | 13% | 31% | 56% | 18% | 30% | 52% | 26% | 73% | 74% | 26% | 10% | 67% | 22% | 35% | 65% |
 | Do you cast your vote for Campa-Najjar enthusiastically? Or with reservations? |
| 229 Campa-Najjar Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 6.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Enthusiastically | 77% | 82% | 74% | 58% | 68% | 84% | 89% | 63% | 86% | 78% | 77% | 80% | 79% | 73% | ** | ** | 72% | 82% | 78% | 86% | 72% | 80% | 41% | 81% | 75% | 99% | 79% | ** | 81% | 87% | 81% | 72% | 74% | 74% | 79% | 85% | 73% | 80% | 68% | 69% | 71% | 93% | 63% | 85% |
| With Reservations | 15% | 15% | 14% | 23% | 25% | 9% | 9% | 24% | 9% | 14% | 17% | 18% | 13% | 18% | ** | ** | 15% | 13% | 17% | 11% | 15% | 15% | 32% | 13% | 14% | 1% | 18% | ** | 10% | 11% | 13% | 17% | 14% | 19% | 13% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 19% | 5% | 21% | 11% |
| Not Sure | 8% | 2% | 12% | 19% | 7% | 7% | 3% | 13% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 8% | 9% | ** | ** | 12% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 12% | 5% | 27% | 6% | 10% | 0% | 3% | ** | 9% | 3% | 6% | 11% | 13% | 7% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 6% | 16% | 16% | 10% | 2% | 15% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Campa-Najjar Voters | 100% | 37% | 63% | 20% | 18% | 29% | 32% | 39% | 61% | 79% | 18% | 7% | 67% | 25% | 2% | 4% | 45% | 27% | 21% | 6% | 45% | 48% | 11% | 89% | 72% | 10% | 12% | 5% | 79% | 13% | 31% | 56% | 18% | 30% | 52% | 26% | 73% | 74% | 26% | 10% | 67% | 22% | 35% | 65% |
 | And in the November election for President, if you were filling out your ballot right now who would you vote for? Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Joe Biden? Or some other candidate? |
| 508 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2016 Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Donald Trump (R) | 45% | 51% | 40% | 35% | 45% | 51% | 46% | 41% | 49% | 44% | 48% | 86% | 6% | 35% | 95% | 80% | 36% | 7% | 4% | 87% | 36% | 6% | 50% | 44% | 35% | 50% | 70% | 92% | 4% | 52% | 50% | 40% | 48% | 46% | 44% | 51% | 44% | 48% | 39% | 52% | 44% | 47% | 43% | 47% |
| Joe Biden (D) | 48% | 42% | 53% | 51% | 44% | 46% | 51% | 47% | 48% | 48% | 47% | 11% | 93% | 46% | 2% | 14% | 55% | 85% | 93% | 9% | 55% | 88% | 37% | 50% | 59% | 49% | 20% | 3% | 93% | 45% | 42% | 52% | 42% | 45% | 51% | 45% | 48% | 48% | 47% | 41% | 51% | 41% | 45% | 50% |
| Some Other Candidate | 4% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 8% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 12% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 8% | 7% | 3% |
| Undecided | 3% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 18% | 23% | 31% | 28% | 41% | 59% | 78% | 18% | 41% | 35% | 23% | 15% | 18% | 39% | 16% | 10% | 33% | 39% | 25% | 15% | 85% | 58% | 12% | 27% | 44% | 40% | 13% | 37% | 50% | 20% | 31% | 50% | 27% | 73% | 72% | 28% | 14% | 60% | 24% | 41% | 59% |