Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21929
 
Back to Where We Were in August: GOP Has Potential to 'Run The Table' In Georgia; May Win All 6 Key Statewide Offices:

8 WXIA-TV pre-election tracking polls ago, SurveyUSA wrote that Republicans in GA led in each of the top 6 statewide contests on the 11/04/14 General Election ballot. Though much changed over the past 12 weeks, and Democrats in a couple contests briefly overtook their GOP opponents as the campaign intensified, when all is said and done, on Election Eve, Republican candidates lead in all 6 statewide contests, and could conceivably "run the table" and win all of them.

In the nationally-significant contest for US Senator, to fill the open seat vacated by Saxby Chambliss, Republican David Perdue edges Michelle Nunn 47% to 44%. Were Perdue to win the seat by 3 percentage points, and were Libertarian Amanda Swafford to get less than 3% of the vote, a runoff would be avoided and Perdue would win the seat outright tomorrow, 11/04/14. Were Perdue to win the seat by less than 3 percentage points, and/or were Swafford to receive more than 3 percent of the vote, a January 2015 runoff would be required. Were Nunn to win the seat, and only a narrow Nunn win would be consistent with these results, that would be a significant upset. Nunn now trails among voters who have already returned a ballot, and trails among voters who say they will vote on Election Day. Nunn leads only among the youngest voters, who, in a midterm, are often the least reliable voters. Perdue leads among voters age 35+, and leads by 18 points among voters age 65+. Perdue leads 2:1 among GA whites. Nunn leads 7:1 among GA blacks. Perdue holds 91% of the Republican base. Twice as many Democrats cross-over and vote for Perdue as Republicans who cross-over and vote for Nunn. Independents split.

In the locally significant contest for Governor of GA, Democratic challenger Jason Carter falters at the finish, putting up a 42% number, his lowest poll number 8 tracking polls over the past 12 weeks. Incumbent Republican Nathan Deal puts up a 47% at the finish, his highest poll number in 12 weeks. Should these numbers hold, and should Deal win by 5 points, and/or should Libertarian Andrew Hunt be held to less than 5% of the vote, a runoff will be avoided, and Deal will win his next term tomorrow, 11/04/14. Should Deal win by fewer than 5 points and/or should Hunt get 5% or more of the vote, a January 2015 runoff will follow. A Carter win would be an enormous upset, given these poll results. Among the wealthiest Georgians, Carter's support collapses at the finish: he trails Deal 53% to 39%. This is Carter's lowest showing and Deal's highest showing, among those households earning more than $80,000 a year, in 8 WXIA-TV tracking polls going back to August. Among voters who have already returned a ballot, Deal leads by 6 points.

* In the election for the open seat of School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods edges Democrat Valarie Wilson 47% to 44%. Woods has never trailed.
* In the election for Lt Governor, incumbent Republican Casey Cagle defeats Democrat Connie Stokes 54% to 38%.
* In the election for Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp defeats Democrat Doreen Carter 52% to 40%.
* In the election for Attorney General, incumbent Republican Sam Olens defeats Democrat Greg Hecht 51% to 39%.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of GA adults 10/30/14 through 11/02/14. Of the adults, 638 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 591 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to vote at the precinct. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (69% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (31% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. A candidate for statewide office in GA needs to reach 50% on Election Day, or a runoff is required. You must credit WXIA-TV in Atlanta if you air, cite or publish these results in whole or part.

 
If the election for Georgia Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Nathan Deal? Democrat Jason Carter? Or Libertarian Andrew Hunt?
591 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyCommon CoreEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalSupportOpposeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineAtlantaNorthwesSouth &
Nathan Deal (R)47%49%45%31%49%48%58%42%52%63%12%51%45%90%13%37%80%31%14%32%68%45%50%46%42%44%53%37%52%39%55%46%
Jason Carter (D)42%39%45%46%39%44%40%42%42%28%76%45%41%7%82%31%11%58%72%58%23%36%40%45%46%42%39%43%42%53%33%41%
Andrew Hunt (L)5%6%5%14%4%4%1%8%3%5%4%3%7%1%2%17%4%6%7%4%7%10%3%5%4%6%6%9%4%4%5%7%
Undecided5%6%5%9%8%4%1%8%3%4%8%1%7%1%2%15%5%5%6%7%3%10%7%3%8%7%2%12%3%4%7%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%48%52%20%29%30%21%49%51%64%26%32%68%36%39%24%37%44%14%23%37%19%29%52%27%36%36%31%69%34%36%31%
 
If the election for United States Senator from Georgia were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican David Perdue? Democrat Michelle Nunn? Or Libertarian Amanda Swafford?
591 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyCommon CoreEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalSupportOpposeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineAtlantaNorthwesSouth &
David Perdue (R)47%51%43%32%48%48%58%41%52%63%12%49%46%91%11%38%82%31%10%29%69%43%47%48%37%46%54%36%52%40%53%48%
Michelle Nunn (D)44%39%49%47%43%47%40%45%44%29%81%47%43%6%86%36%11%59%78%58%23%44%45%44%51%46%38%47%43%55%36%42%
Amanda Swafford (L)5%5%5%13%6%2%1%9%2%6%2%4%6%2%1%16%3%7%6%5%7%5%5%5%4%5%6%9%3%2%6%8%
Undecided4%5%2%8%3%3%1%5%2%2%6%0%5%1%2%10%4%3%6%8%1%7%3%2%7%3%1%8%2%4%5%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%48%52%20%29%30%21%49%51%64%26%32%68%36%39%24%37%44%14%23%37%19%29%52%27%36%36%31%69%34%36%31%
 
Georgia will also elect a Lieutenant Governor. If the election for Lieuenant Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Casey Cagle? or Democrat Connie Stokes?
591 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyCommon CoreEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalSupportOpposeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineAtlantaNorthwesSouth &
Casey Cagle (R)54%57%50%39%52%55%68%47%60%71%17%54%53%94%18%51%86%39%17%40%74%51%54%54%46%52%59%38%61%41%63%56%
Connie Stokes (D)38%34%40%42%38%39%30%40%36%22%74%42%35%3%75%30%8%50%73%53%17%35%37%40%41%38%35%41%36%48%28%38%
Undecided9%8%9%18%10%6%2%14%4%7%9%4%11%3%7%20%6%10%10%7%9%14%10%6%13%9%6%21%3%11%9%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%48%52%20%29%30%21%49%51%64%26%32%68%36%39%24%37%44%14%23%37%19%29%52%27%36%36%31%69%34%36%31%
 
Georgia will also elect a Secretary of State. If the election for Secretary of State were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Brian Kemp? or Democrat Doreen Carter?
591 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyCommon CoreEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalSupportOpposeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineAtlantaNorthwesSouth &
Brian Kemp (R)52%55%49%41%51%52%64%47%57%66%16%51%52%91%18%47%84%38%13%36%75%50%51%53%44%50%58%42%56%43%56%57%
Doreen Carter (D)40%37%43%47%39%40%34%42%38%25%77%45%37%5%77%33%9%54%78%57%18%38%39%42%44%42%36%43%39%50%34%37%
Undecided8%8%9%12%10%8%2%11%6%9%7%4%10%4%5%20%7%8%8%7%7%12%11%5%12%8%6%15%5%7%11%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%48%52%20%29%30%21%49%51%64%26%32%68%36%39%24%37%44%14%23%37%19%29%52%27%36%36%31%69%34%36%31%
 
Georgia will also elect an Attorney General. If the election for Attorney General were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Sam Olens? or Democrat Greg Hecht?
591 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyCommon CoreEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalSupportOpposeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineAtlantaNorthwesSouth &
Sam Olens (R)51%54%48%37%49%53%66%44%58%68%16%52%51%93%14%50%86%36%15%37%71%51%50%52%43%50%57%37%58%40%60%54%
Greg Hecht (D)39%37%41%46%40%40%31%42%36%24%76%45%37%5%78%29%8%54%75%55%19%35%39%42%45%41%36%44%37%50%31%37%
Undecided9%8%10%16%11%7%3%13%6%8%8%3%12%2%8%21%6%10%9%8%10%15%11%6%12%9%7%19%5%10%9%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%48%52%20%29%30%21%49%51%64%26%32%68%36%39%24%37%44%14%23%37%19%29%52%27%36%36%31%69%34%36%31%
 
Georgia will also elect a State School Superintendent. If the election for State School Superintendent were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Richard Woods? or Democrat Valarie Wilson?
591 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyCommon CoreEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalSupportOpposeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineAtlantaNorthwesSouth &
Richard Woods (R)47%52%42%39%47%46%58%44%51%63%12%48%47%89%10%46%80%32%14%30%67%49%45%48%38%46%54%35%53%36%53%53%
Valarie Wilson (D)44%40%49%47%45%46%37%46%43%29%79%49%42%8%86%33%13%59%79%60%26%37%47%46%49%45%42%50%42%55%38%40%
Undecided8%8%9%14%8%8%5%10%7%8%9%3%11%3%4%21%7%9%7%10%7%14%8%6%13%9%4%15%5%8%9%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%48%52%20%29%30%21%49%51%64%26%32%68%36%39%24%37%44%14%23%37%19%29%52%27%36%36%31%69%34%36%31%
 
In general, do you support or oppose the school standards known as "Common Core?" Or, do you not know enough to say?
591 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyCommon CoreEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalSupportOpposeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineAtlantaNorthwesSouth &
Support23%26%20%29%21%23%18%25%21%21%27%24%22%17%29%22%14%24%46%100%0%16%20%26%22%18%28%31%19%27%19%22%
Oppose37%35%39%25%47%40%31%38%37%47%19%35%38%52%22%40%56%28%21%0%100%30%35%42%27%41%41%35%38%34%41%37%
Do Not Know Enough To Say40%39%41%46%31%37%51%37%43%33%54%41%40%31%49%39%29%48%33%0%0%54%45%32%51%40%31%34%43%39%40%42%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%48%52%20%29%30%21%49%51%64%26%32%68%36%39%24%37%44%14%23%37%19%29%52%27%36%36%31%69%34%36%31%