| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21929 |
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Back to Where We Were in August: GOP Has Potential to 'Run The Table' In Georgia; May Win All 6 Key Statewide Offices:
8 WXIA-TV pre-election tracking polls ago, SurveyUSA wrote that Republicans in GA led in each of the top 6 statewide contests on the 11/04/14 General Election ballot. Though much changed over the past 12 weeks, and Democrats in a couple contests briefly overtook their GOP opponents as the campaign intensified, when all is said and done, on Election Eve, Republican candidates lead in all 6 statewide contests, and could conceivably "run the table" and win all of them. In the nationally-significant contest for US Senator, to fill the open seat vacated by Saxby Chambliss, Republican David Perdue edges Michelle Nunn 47% to 44%. Were Perdue to win the seat by 3 percentage points, and were Libertarian Amanda Swafford to get less than 3% of the vote, a runoff would be avoided and Perdue would win the seat outright tomorrow, 11/04/14. Were Perdue to win the seat by less than 3 percentage points, and/or were Swafford to receive more than 3 percent of the vote, a January 2015 runoff would be required. Were Nunn to win the seat, and only a narrow Nunn win would be consistent with these results, that would be a significant upset. Nunn now trails among voters who have already returned a ballot, and trails among voters who say they will vote on Election Day. Nunn leads only among the youngest voters, who, in a midterm, are often the least reliable voters. Perdue leads among voters age 35+, and leads by 18 points among voters age 65+. Perdue leads 2:1 among GA whites. Nunn leads 7:1 among GA blacks. Perdue holds 91% of the Republican base. Twice as many Democrats cross-over and vote for Perdue as Republicans who cross-over and vote for Nunn. Independents split. In the locally significant contest for Governor of GA, Democratic challenger Jason Carter falters at the finish, putting up a 42% number, his lowest poll number 8 tracking polls over the past 12 weeks. Incumbent Republican Nathan Deal puts up a 47% at the finish, his highest poll number in 12 weeks. Should these numbers hold, and should Deal win by 5 points, and/or should Libertarian Andrew Hunt be held to less than 5% of the vote, a runoff will be avoided, and Deal will win his next term tomorrow, 11/04/14. Should Deal win by fewer than 5 points and/or should Hunt get 5% or more of the vote, a January 2015 runoff will follow. A Carter win would be an enormous upset, given these poll results. Among the wealthiest Georgians, Carter's support collapses at the finish: he trails Deal 53% to 39%. This is Carter's lowest showing and Deal's highest showing, among those households earning more than $80,000 a year, in 8 WXIA-TV tracking polls going back to August. Among voters who have already returned a ballot, Deal leads by 6 points.
* In the election for the open seat of School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods edges Democrat Valarie Wilson 47% to 44%. Woods has never trailed. Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of GA adults 10/30/14 through 11/02/14. Of the adults, 638 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 591 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to vote at the precinct. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (69% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (31% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. A candidate for statewide office in GA needs to reach 50% on Election Day, or a runoff is required. You must credit WXIA-TV in Atlanta if you air, cite or publish these results in whole or part. |
![]() | If the election for Georgia Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Nathan Deal? Democrat Jason Carter? Or Libertarian Andrew Hunt? |
| 591 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Common Core | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Support | Oppose | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Atlanta | Northwes | South & | |
| Nathan Deal (R) | 47% | 49% | 45% | 31% | 49% | 48% | 58% | 42% | 52% | 63% | 12% | 51% | 45% | 90% | 13% | 37% | 80% | 31% | 14% | 32% | 68% | 45% | 50% | 46% | 42% | 44% | 53% | 37% | 52% | 39% | 55% | 46% |
| Jason Carter (D) | 42% | 39% | 45% | 46% | 39% | 44% | 40% | 42% | 42% | 28% | 76% | 45% | 41% | 7% | 82% | 31% | 11% | 58% | 72% | 58% | 23% | 36% | 40% | 45% | 46% | 42% | 39% | 43% | 42% | 53% | 33% | 41% |
| Andrew Hunt (L) | 5% | 6% | 5% | 14% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 8% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 17% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 7% |
| Undecided | 5% | 6% | 5% | 9% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 8% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 15% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 3% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 8% | 7% | 2% | 12% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 6% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 20% | 29% | 30% | 21% | 49% | 51% | 64% | 26% | 32% | 68% | 36% | 39% | 24% | 37% | 44% | 14% | 23% | 37% | 19% | 29% | 52% | 27% | 36% | 36% | 31% | 69% | 34% | 36% | 31% |
![]() | If the election for United States Senator from Georgia were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican David Perdue? Democrat Michelle Nunn? Or Libertarian Amanda Swafford? |
| 591 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Common Core | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Support | Oppose | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Atlanta | Northwes | South & | |
| David Perdue (R) | 47% | 51% | 43% | 32% | 48% | 48% | 58% | 41% | 52% | 63% | 12% | 49% | 46% | 91% | 11% | 38% | 82% | 31% | 10% | 29% | 69% | 43% | 47% | 48% | 37% | 46% | 54% | 36% | 52% | 40% | 53% | 48% |
| Michelle Nunn (D) | 44% | 39% | 49% | 47% | 43% | 47% | 40% | 45% | 44% | 29% | 81% | 47% | 43% | 6% | 86% | 36% | 11% | 59% | 78% | 58% | 23% | 44% | 45% | 44% | 51% | 46% | 38% | 47% | 43% | 55% | 36% | 42% |
| Amanda Swafford (L) | 5% | 5% | 5% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 9% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 16% | 3% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 8% |
| Undecided | 4% | 5% | 2% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 0% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 8% | 1% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 20% | 29% | 30% | 21% | 49% | 51% | 64% | 26% | 32% | 68% | 36% | 39% | 24% | 37% | 44% | 14% | 23% | 37% | 19% | 29% | 52% | 27% | 36% | 36% | 31% | 69% | 34% | 36% | 31% |
![]() | Georgia will also elect a Lieutenant Governor. If the election for Lieuenant Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Casey Cagle? or Democrat Connie Stokes? |
| 591 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Common Core | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Support | Oppose | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Atlanta | Northwes | South & | |
| Casey Cagle (R) | 54% | 57% | 50% | 39% | 52% | 55% | 68% | 47% | 60% | 71% | 17% | 54% | 53% | 94% | 18% | 51% | 86% | 39% | 17% | 40% | 74% | 51% | 54% | 54% | 46% | 52% | 59% | 38% | 61% | 41% | 63% | 56% |
| Connie Stokes (D) | 38% | 34% | 40% | 42% | 38% | 39% | 30% | 40% | 36% | 22% | 74% | 42% | 35% | 3% | 75% | 30% | 8% | 50% | 73% | 53% | 17% | 35% | 37% | 40% | 41% | 38% | 35% | 41% | 36% | 48% | 28% | 38% |
| Undecided | 9% | 8% | 9% | 18% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 14% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 4% | 11% | 3% | 7% | 20% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 14% | 10% | 6% | 13% | 9% | 6% | 21% | 3% | 11% | 9% | 6% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 20% | 29% | 30% | 21% | 49% | 51% | 64% | 26% | 32% | 68% | 36% | 39% | 24% | 37% | 44% | 14% | 23% | 37% | 19% | 29% | 52% | 27% | 36% | 36% | 31% | 69% | 34% | 36% | 31% |
![]() | Georgia will also elect a Secretary of State. If the election for Secretary of State were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Brian Kemp? or Democrat Doreen Carter? |
| 591 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Common Core | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Support | Oppose | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Atlanta | Northwes | South & | |
| Brian Kemp (R) | 52% | 55% | 49% | 41% | 51% | 52% | 64% | 47% | 57% | 66% | 16% | 51% | 52% | 91% | 18% | 47% | 84% | 38% | 13% | 36% | 75% | 50% | 51% | 53% | 44% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 56% | 43% | 56% | 57% |
| Doreen Carter (D) | 40% | 37% | 43% | 47% | 39% | 40% | 34% | 42% | 38% | 25% | 77% | 45% | 37% | 5% | 77% | 33% | 9% | 54% | 78% | 57% | 18% | 38% | 39% | 42% | 44% | 42% | 36% | 43% | 39% | 50% | 34% | 37% |
| Undecided | 8% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 10% | 4% | 5% | 20% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 12% | 11% | 5% | 12% | 8% | 6% | 15% | 5% | 7% | 11% | 6% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 20% | 29% | 30% | 21% | 49% | 51% | 64% | 26% | 32% | 68% | 36% | 39% | 24% | 37% | 44% | 14% | 23% | 37% | 19% | 29% | 52% | 27% | 36% | 36% | 31% | 69% | 34% | 36% | 31% |
![]() | Georgia will also elect an Attorney General. If the election for Attorney General were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Sam Olens? or Democrat Greg Hecht? |
| 591 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Common Core | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Support | Oppose | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Atlanta | Northwes | South & | |
| Sam Olens (R) | 51% | 54% | 48% | 37% | 49% | 53% | 66% | 44% | 58% | 68% | 16% | 52% | 51% | 93% | 14% | 50% | 86% | 36% | 15% | 37% | 71% | 51% | 50% | 52% | 43% | 50% | 57% | 37% | 58% | 40% | 60% | 54% |
| Greg Hecht (D) | 39% | 37% | 41% | 46% | 40% | 40% | 31% | 42% | 36% | 24% | 76% | 45% | 37% | 5% | 78% | 29% | 8% | 54% | 75% | 55% | 19% | 35% | 39% | 42% | 45% | 41% | 36% | 44% | 37% | 50% | 31% | 37% |
| Undecided | 9% | 8% | 10% | 16% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 13% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 3% | 12% | 2% | 8% | 21% | 6% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 10% | 15% | 11% | 6% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 19% | 5% | 10% | 9% | 8% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 20% | 29% | 30% | 21% | 49% | 51% | 64% | 26% | 32% | 68% | 36% | 39% | 24% | 37% | 44% | 14% | 23% | 37% | 19% | 29% | 52% | 27% | 36% | 36% | 31% | 69% | 34% | 36% | 31% |
| 591 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Common Core | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Support | Oppose | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Atlanta | Northwes | South & | |
| Richard Woods (R) | 47% | 52% | 42% | 39% | 47% | 46% | 58% | 44% | 51% | 63% | 12% | 48% | 47% | 89% | 10% | 46% | 80% | 32% | 14% | 30% | 67% | 49% | 45% | 48% | 38% | 46% | 54% | 35% | 53% | 36% | 53% | 53% |
| Valarie Wilson (D) | 44% | 40% | 49% | 47% | 45% | 46% | 37% | 46% | 43% | 29% | 79% | 49% | 42% | 8% | 86% | 33% | 13% | 59% | 79% | 60% | 26% | 37% | 47% | 46% | 49% | 45% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 55% | 38% | 40% |
| Undecided | 8% | 8% | 9% | 14% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 3% | 11% | 3% | 4% | 21% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 7% | 14% | 8% | 6% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 15% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 8% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 20% | 29% | 30% | 21% | 49% | 51% | 64% | 26% | 32% | 68% | 36% | 39% | 24% | 37% | 44% | 14% | 23% | 37% | 19% | 29% | 52% | 27% | 36% | 36% | 31% | 69% | 34% | 36% | 31% |
![]() | In general, do you support or oppose the school standards known as "Common Core?" Or, do you not know enough to say? |
| 591 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Common Core | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Support | Oppose | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Atlanta | Northwes | South & | |
| Support | 23% | 26% | 20% | 29% | 21% | 23% | 18% | 25% | 21% | 21% | 27% | 24% | 22% | 17% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 24% | 46% | 100% | 0% | 16% | 20% | 26% | 22% | 18% | 28% | 31% | 19% | 27% | 19% | 22% |
| Oppose | 37% | 35% | 39% | 25% | 47% | 40% | 31% | 38% | 37% | 47% | 19% | 35% | 38% | 52% | 22% | 40% | 56% | 28% | 21% | 0% | 100% | 30% | 35% | 42% | 27% | 41% | 41% | 35% | 38% | 34% | 41% | 37% |
| Do Not Know Enough To Say | 40% | 39% | 41% | 46% | 31% | 37% | 51% | 37% | 43% | 33% | 54% | 41% | 40% | 31% | 49% | 39% | 29% | 48% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 54% | 45% | 32% | 51% | 40% | 31% | 34% | 43% | 39% | 40% | 42% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 20% | 29% | 30% | 21% | 49% | 51% | 64% | 26% | 32% | 68% | 36% | 39% | 24% | 37% | 44% | 14% | 23% | 37% | 19% | 29% | 52% | 27% | 36% | 36% | 31% | 69% | 34% | 36% | 31% |