| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27294 |
| Democrat Incumbent Heinrich Poised to Capture 3rdTerm in US Senate; ⅔ of New Mexico Voters Say Senators Should Live at Home, not in DC:
SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling for KOB-TV in Alburquerque shows Democratic Incumbent US Senator Martin Heinrich leading Republican Nella Domenici by 13 points, 47% to 34%, with 19% saying they are undecided today, 44 days until votes are counted. Domenici, daughter of New Mexico's last Republican US Senator, Pete Domenici, leads by 63 points among Republicans, by 57 points among those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020, by 56 points among very conservative voters, and by 47 points among those who say they are somewhat conservative. Heinrich, who is seeking his third term, leads elsewhere, including by 74 points among very liberal voters, by 71 points among 2020 Biden voters, by 70 points among Democrats, and by 64 points among voters who say they are somewhat liberal. Domenici trails but shows strength among 25 to 34-year-old voters and among white voters, with Heinrich leading by 4 points among both groups, as well as among men, where Heinrich leads by 4 points, compared to the 22-point lead he holds among women. Heinrich leads by 25 points in Bernalillo County, by 8 in Doña Ana County, and by 5 points in the rest of New Mexico. 67% of registered voters say United States Senators should live in their home states and spend as little time as possible in Washington. 33% say senators should live in Washington because that is where most of their job happens. Majorities of every demographic subgroup say Senators should live at home. Fully crosstabbed results follow... |
| About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 875 New Mexico adults online 09/12/24 through 09/18/24, using non-probability sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 723 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 619 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in November and were asked the substantive question which follows. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census American Community Survey targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership, and to recalled 2020 Presidential vote. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of New Mexico? |
| 875 Adults | All | Gender | Age | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely Voter | Senate Vote | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Certain | Probable | Domenici | Heinrich | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Bernalil | Dona Ana | Rest of | |
| Yes | 83% | 85% | 80% | 67% | 77% | 78% | 86% | 93% | 74% | 78% | 86% | 93% | 76% | 90% | 88% | 81% | 70% | 79% | 85% | 89% | 93% | 75% | 90% | 92% | 81% | 92% | 88% | 91% | 81% | 90% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 97% | 70% | 84% | 96% | 73% | 88% | 93% | 90% | 66% | 84% | 86% | 77% | 88% | 85% | 78% |
| No | 16% | 13% | 19% | 30% | 22% | 19% | 13% | 7% | 25% | 19% | 13% | 7% | 22% | 10% | 12% | 17% | 28% | 20% | 14% | 10% | 6% | 24% | 10% | 7% | 17% | 7% | 12% | 8% | 17% | 9% | - | - | - | - | 9% | 2% | 28% | 15% | 3% | 25% | 11% | 6% | 9% | 31% | 14% | 13% | 21% | 10% | 14% | 21% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | - | - | - | - | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 49% | 51% | 8% | 19% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 27% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 51% | 49% | 47% | 38% | 15% | 29% | 69% | 30% | 37% | 25% | 12% | 17% | 38% | 12% | 11% | 30% | 38% | 22% | 67% | 18% | 34% | 47% | 33% | 39% | 36% | 34% | 29% | 43% | 35% | 22% | 68% | 32% | 36% | 34% | 30% | 37% | 13% | 50% |
| 2 | New Mexico will hold an election for President, United States Senate, and for US House of Representatives in November. Not everyone has a chance to vote in an election. Which best describes you? |
| 723 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely Voter | Senate Vote | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Certain | Probable | Domenici | Heinrich | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Bernalil | Dona Ana | Rest of | |
| Not Interested / Will Not Vote | 4% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 5% | 0% | 8% | 4% | 5% | 0% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - | - | 4% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 6% |
| Not Sure | 10% | 9% | 12% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 18% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 19% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 13% | 11% | 0% | 7% | 13% | 6% | 0% | 0% | - | - | 5% | 6% | 16% | 11% | 4% | 14% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 16% | 13% | 7% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 13% |
| Almost Certain | 18% | 20% | 16% | 22% | 32% | 21% | 9% | 15% | 29% | 21% | 9% | 15% | 25% | 12% | 16% | 23% | 12% | 23% | 16% | 20% | 17% | 15% | 23% | 21% | 20% | 10% | 10% | 22% | 20% | 10% | 0% | 100% | 20% | 16% | 19% | 14% | 20% | 23% | 11% | 21% | 20% | 11% | 16% | 25% | 18% | 17% | 20% | 16% | 21% | 19% |
| 100% Certain | 67% | 68% | 67% | 43% | 39% | 63% | 80% | 83% | 40% | 63% | 80% | 83% | 51% | 82% | 73% | 63% | 60% | 58% | 71% | 69% | 73% | 62% | 59% | 74% | 64% | 76% | 87% | 68% | 64% | 81% | 100% | 0% | 80% | 84% | 73% | 78% | 57% | 63% | 82% | 59% | 68% | 79% | 72% | 54% | 67% | 72% | 62% | 74% | 69% | 62% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 6% | 18% | 22% | 24% | 29% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 29% | 46% | 54% | 49% | 38% | 13% | 28% | 71% | 32% | 41% | 23% | 14% | 19% | 38% | 13% | 11% | 33% | 38% | 24% | 67% | 18% | 34% | 47% | 37% | 46% | 31% | 35% | 34% | 38% | 37% | 24% | 75% | 25% | 37% | 35% | 28% | 39% | 13% | 48% |
 | If the election for United States Senate were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (Candidate names rotated) |
| 619 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely Voter | Senate Vote | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Certain | Probable | Domenici | Heinrich | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Bernalil | Dona Ana | Rest of | |
| Nella Domenici (R) | 34% | 39% | 28% | ** | 38% | 29% | 38% | 34% | 32% | 29% | 38% | 34% | 31% | 36% | 41% | 29% | 12% | 40% | 32% | 74% | 8% | 24% | 68% | 63% | 21% | 14% | 11% | 65% | 21% | 12% | 34% | 32% | 100% | 0% | 69% | 7% | 33% | 35% | 32% | 29% | 35% | 38% | 34% | 32% | 28% | 35% | 39% | 30% | 33% | 37% |
| Martin Heinrich (D) | 47% | 45% | 50% | ** | 42% | 50% | 46% | 49% | 44% | 50% | 46% | 49% | 47% | 48% | 45% | 46% | 65% | 41% | 49% | 11% | 78% | 44% | 12% | 16% | 55% | 78% | 85% | 14% | 55% | 81% | 51% | 35% | 0% | 100% | 12% | 78% | 38% | 44% | 58% | 48% | 45% | 50% | 49% | 42% | 55% | 43% | 44% | 55% | 41% | 42% |
| Undecided | 19% | 17% | 22% | ** | 20% | 21% | 16% | 17% | 24% | 21% | 16% | 17% | 22% | 16% | 14% | 25% | 22% | 18% | 19% | 15% | 14% | 32% | 20% | 22% | 24% | 9% | 4% | 21% | 24% | 6% | 15% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 19% | 14% | 29% | 20% | 10% | 22% | 20% | 13% | 17% | 26% | 17% | 22% | 17% | 15% | 26% | 21% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 5% | 15% | 21% | 26% | 33% | 20% | 21% | 26% | 33% | 41% | 59% | 52% | 38% | 11% | 26% | 72% | 33% | 44% | 20% | 13% | 21% | 37% | 13% | 13% | 34% | 37% | 26% | 79% | 21% | 34% | 47% | 39% | 50% | 28% | 35% | 37% | 36% | 38% | 26% | 77% | 23% | 36% | 37% | 27% | 41% | 14% | 45% |
| 4 | Many U.S. Senators spend most of their time living in or around Washington, D.C. because of their jobs. Which of these statements do you agree with more?
Senators should live in their home states and spend as little time as possible in Washington. Senators should live in Washington because that is where most of their job happens. |
| 723 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely Voter | Senate Vote | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Certain | Probable | Domenici | Heinrich | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Bernalil | Dona Ana | Rest of | |
| Live In Their Home States | 67% | 67% | 67% | 73% | 65% | 73% | 71% | 58% | 67% | 73% | 71% | 58% | 70% | 64% | 72% | 62% | 58% | 74% | 64% | 75% | 60% | 67% | 74% | 71% | 62% | 71% | 59% | 72% | 62% | 66% | 63% | 73% | 72% | 63% | 71% | 61% | 65% | 60% | 75% | 67% | 63% | 72% | 65% | 71% | 65% | 67% | 69% | 67% | 66% | 66% |
| Live In Washington | 33% | 33% | 33% | 27% | 35% | 27% | 29% | 42% | 33% | 27% | 29% | 42% | 30% | 36% | 28% | 38% | 42% | 26% | 36% | 25% | 40% | 33% | 26% | 29% | 38% | 29% | 41% | 28% | 38% | 34% | 37% | 27% | 28% | 37% | 29% | 39% | 35% | 40% | 25% | 33% | 37% | 28% | 35% | 29% | 35% | 33% | 31% | 33% | 34% | 34% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 6% | 18% | 22% | 24% | 29% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 29% | 46% | 54% | 49% | 38% | 13% | 28% | 71% | 32% | 41% | 23% | 14% | 19% | 38% | 13% | 11% | 33% | 38% | 24% | 67% | 18% | 34% | 47% | 37% | 46% | 31% | 35% | 34% | 38% | 37% | 24% | 75% | 25% | 37% | 35% | 28% | 39% | 13% | 48% |