Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14323
In WA State, McCain-Palin Slices Into Obama-Biden: Democrat Barack Obama's once double-digit lead in Washington state is no more, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle and KATU-TV Portland Oregon. In an election today, 09/08/08, eight weeks till votes are counted, it's Obama 49%, McCain 45%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago (before both candidates had named their running mates), Obama is down 2 points; McCain is up 1. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 8 weeks ago, Obama is down 6; McCain is up 6. Obama led by 17 points in June, led by 16 points in July, led 8 points in August, leads 4 points today.

Among voters with no college education, there is continuing movement to McCain. Obama led by 15 points in July, now trails by 8, a 23-point erosion. Among voters who earn less than $50K a year, there is continuing movement to McCain. Obama's once 26-point lead among the lower-income group is now 5 points, a 21-point erosion. Among voters older than McCain, Obama had led by 24 points in July, now trails by 1, a 25-point erosion. McCain always has run well among Conservatives, but his advantage among Conservatives has grown from 4:1 in May to 11:1 today. In Eastern Washington state, Obama led 5:4 in June, but McCain leads 2:1 today.

Among women, McCain is up 9 points from June, Obama is down 11 points from June. McCain had been gaining ground among female voters before he picked Sarah Palin. That continues. Among men, Obama leads by 4 today, a 5-point shift toward Obama from last month, when McCain led by 1. This is one of the few bright spots in today's poll data for the Democrats.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Washington adults 09/05/08 through 09/07/08; of the adults, 803 identified themselves as being registered to vote in Washington state. Of the registered voters, 658 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election. All interviews were completed after the Labor Day weekend, and after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention. Question text for the "horserace" question was not changed for the 09/08/08 release to include the names of the running mates. 37 of Washington's 39 counties vote exclusively by mail; ballots must be postmarked no later than Election Day, 11/04/08. Washington has 11 Electoral College votes. John Kerry carried Washington by 7 points in 2004; Al Gore carried Washington by 6 points in 2000.
If you were filling out your ballot for President right now, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?
658 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next PresidentIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigrat< $50K> $50KWestern Eastern Metro Se
McCain (R)45%45%44%36%46%46%50%43%47%41%47%48%47%****37%90%10%42%89%38%9%41%50%61%41%32%74%26%42%46%42%**28%26%95%****78%43%45%42%62%40%
Obama (D)49%49%49%53%51%48%43%52%46%53%46%45%47%****56%7%87%45%8%53%89%55%42%35%49%63%19%69%43%51%52%**68%64%5%****16%48%50%53%31%54%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%19%35%28%18%54%46%47%10%43%84%3%5%8%29%37%28%26%41%22%52%48%37%25%38%38%60%24%73%46%5%14%9%9%3%3%7%32%68%27%21%52%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.