Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13182
 
CA GOP PRIMARY: Giuliani's Once 21-Point Lead Vanishes; McCain Now 15 Points Atop Rudy -- Rudolph Giuliani, who led in California's Republican Primary by 20 points in August and by 21 points in October, suddenly finds himself looking at John McCain's read-end, according to SurveyUSA tracking poll data conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, before Iowa and New Hampshire, McCain is up 19 points, from 14% on 12/17/07 to 33% today. Giuliani is down 10 points, from 28% to 18%. California is central to Giuliani's 'Big State' strategy, which kept him out of early caucuses and primaries, to allow him to concentrate on Florida on 01/29/08 and the delegate rich states such as California which vote on 02/05/08. SurveyUSA polling now shows Giuliani behind McCain in Florida, just 3 points ahead of McCain in Giuliani's home state of New York, and now down by double digits in CA. Mike Huckabee runs 3rd at 14%, Mitt Romney 4th at 13%, with Fred Thompson and Ron Paul further back. Among Moderate Republicans, Giuliani has fallen 27 points, from 46% in August to 19% today. McCain has gained 29 points among Moderates during that period, from 13% in August to 42% today.
 
Filtering: 2,100 state of CA adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 01/11/08 through 01/13/08, after Iowa and New Hampshire voting, but before voting in Michigan, South Carolina and Florida. Of the adults, 1,791 were registered to vote. Of them, 509 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 02/05/08 Republican Presidential Primary.
 
If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for ...(names rotated) Rudy Giuliani? Mike Huckabee? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Fred Thompson? Ron Paul? Or some other Republican?
509 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeology2004 VoteAbortionGlobal WarmingStem Cell ResearLabor UnionSame Sex MarriagGun OwnershipMilitary DraftWho Is Winning WBush in HistoryPassport CurrentRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalBushKerryPro-lifePro-choiRealMade-upForAgainstYesNoSupportOpposeYesNoNeedNo NeedUnited STerrorisOne Of AAn AveraOne Of TYesNoCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Giuliani18%18%18%23%20%15%15%21%15%19%**15%23%18%**25%17%19%**19%10%18%19%16%21%21%14%17%18%22%17%21%16%15%20%18%28%16%19%18%21%14%14%21%19%18%
Huckabee14%13%16%11%18%15%10%15%13%13%**19%11%15%**7%18%10%**15%15%19%8%14%13%9%25%9%15%9%15%16%12%18%12%13%15%15%15%7%11%18%15%11%22%9%
McCain33%35%31%36%26%34%41%30%38%35%**30%26%35%**18%30%42%**34%36%26%42%41%23%37%29%32%35%32%33%26%39%33%34%34%24%31%36%31%33%33%38%36%21%37%
Romney13%11%16%9%13%12%17%11%14%13%**11%13%13%**11%14%12%**13%8%14%12%10%18%12%14%12%13%11%14%14%13%14%13%15%9%17%12%11%14%12%12%14%12%11%
Thompson9%10%7%5%9%13%8%7%10%10%**7%5%9%**4%12%5%**10%7%11%7%6%15%9%10%15%7%4%11%14%6%9%9%9%8%12%8%9%9%9%8%7%13%9%
Paul4%6%1%5%8%1%3%7%2%4%**3%13%3%**20%4%4%**2%10%4%5%4%4%6%2%3%5%12%3%4%5%3%6%3%7%1%3%15%5%4%6%4%3%7%
Other3%3%4%5%3%3%3%4%3%3%**5%4%3%**6%2%4%**2%13%3%4%5%1%4%1%6%2%9%2%4%2%6%2%3%4%0%3%6%4%2%3%2%4%8%
Undecided4%3%6%6%3%6%3%4%5%3%**10%6%4%**9%4%5%**4%1%5%3%4%5%3%6%6%4%1%6%3%6%4%5%4%6%6%4%3%3%7%4%5%6%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%61%39%21%33%24%21%54%46%69%2%18%11%90%3%6%61%33%5%86%8%53%45%57%38%66%28%22%75%20%76%39%59%29%67%74%15%25%55%18%62%37%24%36%23%17%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.