Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21897
 
In Oregon, Kitzhaber Still Wins; Cylvia Hayes 'Defectors' Do Not Change Outcome Materially in Campaign's Final Week:

One week till counting begins in Oregon's all-mail election, incumbent Democrat John Kitzhaber appears to survive the whiff of a scandal, and remains almost certain to be elected to a 4th term as Governor, according to KATU-TV's final pre-election tracking poll in the contest.

Today, it's Kitzhaber 50%, Republican challenger Dennis Richardson 40%. In 4 SurveyUSA tracking going back to 06/10/14, Kitzhaber has led by 13 points, 12 points, 12 points, 13 points, and today by 10 points. Among Independent voters, there is late movement to Richardson.

In an election today for United States Senator from Oregon, incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley is comfortably reelected, 53% to 32%, defeating Republican challenger Monica Wehby.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Oregon adults 10/23/14 through 10/27/14. Of the adults, 624 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 552 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before the 11/04/14 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (70% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (30% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

 
If you were filling out your ballot for Oregon governor today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Dennis Richardson? Democrat John Kitzhaber? Or some other candidate?
552 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ACA ImpactCover Oregon ImpactKitzhaber BlameAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Major FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaAllMostSomeNoneYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of
Dennis Richardson (R)40%45%36%32%43%37%45%39%41%55%32%30%72%39%12%81%70%25%4%41%39%80%9%42%82%33%6%39%46%33%30%47%39%33%43%38%44%
John Kitzhaber (D)50%44%55%52%43%56%47%46%52%38%54%63%17%53%81%6%15%69%93%52%48%13%84%42%13%54%85%49%44%57%57%44%52%55%48%51%48%
Other6%7%4%9%5%4%6%7%5%3%8%7%7%5%4%11%9%4%2%5%6%4%4%10%3%8%4%5%6%5%7%6%3%5%6%6%5%
Undecided5%4%5%6%9%2%2%8%2%4%6%1%4%3%3%3%6%3%2%1%7%4%3%6%2%4%5%7%4%4%6%3%6%8%3%5%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%15%26%33%26%40%60%41%29%27%35%27%33%20%18%40%16%40%60%29%41%28%27%43%26%16%40%44%31%40%29%30%70%65%35%
 
If you were filling out your ballot for United States Senator from Oregon today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Monica Wehby? Democrat Jeff Merkley? Or some other candidate?
552 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ACA ImpactCover Oregon ImpactKitzhaber BlameAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Major FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaAllMostSomeNoneYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of
Monica Wehby (R)32%37%28%23%33%29%40%30%34%49%26%17%59%26%13%68%50%19%6%37%29%63%8%32%65%26%4%36%37%24%23%40%29%22%36%30%36%
Jeff Merkley (D)53%49%57%56%51%57%49%53%53%38%60%69%23%60%78%16%28%70%86%57%50%17%84%49%17%57%90%47%46%64%58%47%58%57%51%56%47%
Other8%9%8%10%7%8%9%8%8%8%7%11%13%7%6%13%12%7%5%5%10%12%4%12%13%9%3%9%11%6%13%8%5%8%8%8%10%
Undecided6%5%7%11%8%6%3%9%4%5%7%3%5%6%3%3%10%4%3%1%10%8%4%6%6%8%3%8%6%6%7%5%8%12%4%6%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%15%26%33%26%40%60%41%29%27%35%27%33%20%18%40%16%40%60%29%41%28%27%43%26%16%40%44%31%40%29%30%70%65%35%
 
How much of a factor will the future of the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, be in determining how you will vote in the race for United States Senate? A major factor? A minor factor? Or not a factor at all?
552 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ACA ImpactCover Oregon ImpactKitzhaber BlameAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Major FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaAllMostSomeNoneYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of
Major Factor41%44%38%37%43%40%43%40%41%100%0%0%67%33%23%65%48%33%30%43%40%52%35%36%56%33%34%48%41%36%34%43%43%33%44%39%45%
Minor Factor29%31%27%40%31%28%21%35%25%0%100%0%21%48%23%15%35%34%31%29%29%25%30%32%22%34%29%21%29%33%30%30%27%40%24%32%24%
Not a Factor27%23%31%19%22%28%34%21%31%0%0%100%11%17%52%18%17%29%38%27%27%22%30%29%20%27%35%28%25%30%30%26%25%19%30%26%28%
Not Sure3%2%5%4%4%4%2%4%3%0%0%0%0%2%2%2%1%4%1%2%5%2%5%3%1%6%2%3%6%1%5%1%5%8%1%3%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%15%26%33%26%40%60%41%29%27%35%27%33%20%18%40%16%40%60%29%41%28%27%43%26%16%40%44%31%40%29%30%70%65%35%
 
How much of a factor will the failure of Cover Oregon be in determining how you will vote in the race for Governor?
552 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ACA ImpactCover Oregon ImpactKitzhaber BlameAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Major FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaAllMostSomeNoneYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of
Major Factor35%41%29%31%36%34%36%34%35%57%26%15%100%0%0%75%61%19%6%35%35%53%18%38%59%31%12%46%36%27%28%41%32%30%37%35%34%
Minor Factor27%25%28%39%25%25%24%30%25%22%44%17%0%100%0%12%32%36%22%26%27%28%28%27%25%31%25%22%27%29%25%29%28%33%24%27%26%
Not a Factor33%30%37%23%32%36%37%29%36%19%27%64%0%0%100%9%5%40%71%38%30%17%47%31%14%31%59%22%30%42%39%29%33%26%36%32%35%
Not Sure5%4%6%7%7%5%3%7%4%3%3%3%0%0%0%4%1%6%1%2%7%2%7%5%2%7%4%10%7%2%8%1%8%11%2%6%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%15%26%33%26%40%60%41%29%27%35%27%33%20%18%40%16%40%60%29%41%28%27%43%26%16%40%44%31%40%29%30%70%65%35%
 
How much of the blame do you think Governor John Kitzhaber personally deserves for the failure of Cover Oregon? Almost all of it? Most of it? Some of it? Or almost none of it?
552 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ACA ImpactCover Oregon ImpactKitzhaber BlameAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Major FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaAllMostSomeNoneYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of
All20%25%15%16%19%16%29%18%22%32%10%13%43%9%6%100%0%0%0%24%17%35%7%19%35%14%8%27%23%12%18%20%19%8%25%21%19%
Most18%20%17%13%17%24%16%15%20%21%22%11%32%22%3%0%100%0%0%16%20%29%10%21%33%19%5%18%21%17%15%20%21%17%19%18%19%
Some40%38%42%50%39%43%32%43%38%33%47%44%21%54%48%0%0%100%0%36%43%31%48%40%25%45%50%34%35%49%34%47%40%50%36%42%37%
None16%13%19%17%15%14%18%16%16%12%17%23%3%13%34%0%0%0%100%19%14%3%28%14%1%17%32%13%16%17%24%11%15%15%16%16%16%
Not Sure6%4%7%5%11%3%4%9%4%2%3%9%1%2%10%0%0%0%0%5%6%2%8%6%5%5%5%8%5%5%10%3%5%9%4%4%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%15%26%33%26%40%60%41%29%27%35%27%33%20%18%40%16%40%60%29%41%28%27%43%26%16%40%44%31%40%29%30%70%65%35%
 
Oregon will also vote on several ballot measures. First, Measure 91, which would legalize recreational marijuana for adults aged 21 and older. On Measure 91, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
552 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ACA ImpactCover Oregon ImpactKitzhaber BlameAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Major FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaAllMostSomeNoneYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of
Yes52%56%49%71%46%61%36%55%50%44%61%57%38%54%67%30%37%63%70%55%51%32%65%57%27%54%77%52%48%58%59%51%50%62%48%55%47%
No41%39%42%26%46%30%57%39%42%50%30%36%56%39%26%66%55%31%20%43%39%62%27%35%68%37%18%37%46%35%36%42%41%32%44%38%45%
Not Certain7%5%9%4%8%8%7%6%8%6%9%7%6%7%7%5%8%7%10%2%10%6%7%8%5%9%5%10%6%7%5%7%9%6%8%7%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%15%26%33%26%40%60%41%29%27%35%27%33%20%18%40%16%40%60%29%41%28%27%43%26%16%40%44%31%40%29%30%70%65%35%
 
Next, Measure 92, which would require some genetically engineered food to be labeled as such. On Measure 92, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
552 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ACA ImpactCover Oregon ImpactKitzhaber BlameAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Major FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaAllMostSomeNoneYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of
Yes44%42%47%52%47%43%40%49%41%38%45%56%28%49%57%19%31%55%59%48%42%28%55%46%25%46%66%29%41%55%43%42%51%48%43%43%46%
No43%47%39%41%37%42%51%38%46%48%41%37%60%40%29%74%53%30%29%51%38%60%31%42%64%40%24%54%49%31%42%46%36%38%45%43%42%
Not Certain13%11%14%7%16%15%9%13%13%14%14%8%12%11%13%6%15%14%13%2%20%12%14%12%12%15%11%17%10%14%15%13%12%14%12%13%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%15%26%33%26%40%60%41%29%27%35%27%33%20%18%40%16%40%60%29%41%28%27%43%26%16%40%44%31%40%29%30%70%65%35%