Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13845
Clinton Has The Hoosiers Right Where She Wants Them, 24 Hours Till Votes Are Counted: 24 hours till votes are counted in the Indiana Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama in the symbolically important popular vote, and possibly by enough to pick up more than a trivial number of net Convention delegates, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-primary tracking poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. In 4 tracking polls over the past 5 weeks, Clinton has never polled lower than 52%, Obama has never polled higher than 43%. At the wire, they finish: Clinton 54%, Obama 42%. Among males, the two have been tied in 3 of the 4 tracking polls. Among females, Clinton has always led by at least 14, and finishes ahead by 22. Among Republicans and Independents, the two are effectively tied. Among Democrats, Clinton finishes ahead by 19. Clinton leads among Conservatives, Moderates and Liberals. She leads among Pro Life and Pro Choice voters, among regular and not-so-regular church goers. In Northern Indiana, she leads by 11. In Central and Southern Indiana, she leads by 27. In greater Indianapolis, Obama leads. Among voters under 35, Obama leads. Among voters over 35, Clinton leads.
Filtering / Context: 1,600 state of Indiana adults were interviewed 05/02/08 through 05/04/08. Of the Indiana adults, 1,400 were registered to vote. Of them, 675 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 05/06/08 Indiana Democratic Primary. 3% of Indiana likely voters in today's poll tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, 97% will vote at the precinct tomorrow. 72 delegates will be proportionally awarded to the Democratic National Convention. It is not knowable precisely how many net convention delegates Clinton will pick up in Indiana, but the exact size of her win will determine how much symbolism to attach to it.
If the Democratic Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for...(names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? Or some other Democrat?
675 Likely And Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceEarly Voter?Party AffiliationIdeologyAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next PresidentRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackActual VLikely VRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigratN INCentral IndianapS IN
Composition of Likely And Actual Voters100%48%52%22%30%29%19%52%48%44%10%46%87%10%3%97%14%69%14%16%45%21%45%27%29%41%54%11%88%53%3%10%14%4%4%5%4%38%19%20%23%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.