Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14480
Dog-Gone It -- Minnesotans Start to Like 3rd Party Candidate Dean Barkley: In an election for United States Senator from Minnesota today, 10/02/08, incumbent Republican Norm Coleman defeats DFL candidate Al Franken 43% to 33% to win a second term, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV in Duluth, KAAL-TV in Rochester, and KSAX-TV in Alexandria. But: the big story in the poll data is the continuing surge of Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley, who today gets 19%.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 3 weeks ago, Franken is down 10 points; Coleman is up 2 points; Barkley is up 5 points. Barkley today gets 27% of the vote among seniors, 31% of the vote among Independents and 30% of the vote among those focused on health care. Combined with the 5% of voters who tell SurveyUSA they are undecided, 1 in 4 today vote for neither Coleman nor Franken.

Among men, Coleman is flat; Franken is down 6 points; Barkley is up 7.
Among women, Coleman is up 4 points; Franken is down 7; Barkley is up 4.
Among voters age 18 to 49, Coleman is up 6 points; Franken is down 10; Barkley is up 2.
Among voters age 50+, Coleman is down 4 points; Franken is down 3; Barkley is up 9.

Barkley represented Minnesota in the United States Senate for two months following the death of Paul Wellstone in 2002. Barkley is at or above 20% among men, moderates, those who did not attend college, those who rarely go to church, pro-choice voters, those with incomes less than $50,000 a year, and in Northeast and Southern Minnesota.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Minnesota adults 09/30/08 and 10/01/08. Of them, 839 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 725 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Interviews were conducted after the U.S. House of Representatives failed to pass an economic recovery bill but before the U.S. Senate did pass a bill. Norm Coleman voted for the bill.
If the election for United States Senator were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Norm Coleman? DFL candidate Al Franken? Or Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley?
725 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next PresidentIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigrat< $50K> $50KTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheas
Norm Coleman (R)43%43%42%44%47%40%36%46%38%45%******83%10%39%77%35%5%47%40%51%39%28%63%26%33%46%45%**23%32%78%******34%47%42%36%55%38%
Al Franken (DFL)33%32%35%33%29%39%35%31%37%31%******6%65%26%8%40%72%35%32%29%34%45%17%50%25%36%33%**46%49%8%******39%32%35%41%22%33%
Dean Barkley (IP)19%21%18%13%20%19%27%17%22%19%******10%19%31%14%20%15%15%22%18%19%22%16%20%31%16%18%**30%16%14%******24%16%19%20%19%22%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%22%35%23%19%57%43%91%3%2%4%30%37%21%31%43%15%42%58%51%27%22%45%51%21%77%62%2%8%7%6%3%3%4%34%66%58%13%14%15%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.