| Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #18785 |
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Oregon Poll Results: Obama 8 Points Atop Romney, 14 Points Atop Gingrich:
11 months till ballots are mailed in the election for President of the United States, incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama is poised to hold Oregon's 7 electoral votes, according to a poll for KATU-2 TV news in Portland. Today, in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups between the two Republican front-runners, it's:
* Obama 48%
* Obama 51%
* If Romney is the candidate, Obama leads among men by 5 points. If Gingrich is the candidate, Obama leads among men by 12 points.
* Romney has a Minus 20 favorability rating: 21% see him favorably, 41% see him unfavorably. Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: 600 state of Oregon adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 11/18/11 through 11/21/11. Of the adults, 528 were registered to vote and were asked the substantive questions. This research was conducted multi-mode. Respondents who use a home telephone (69% of adults, 70% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home telephone (31% of adults, 30% of registered voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet, or other electronic device. In this survey, cell-phone and home-phone respondents vote similarly. Obama leads Romney by 10 points among home-phone respondents and by 5 points among cell-phone respondents. Obama leads Gingrich by 13 points among home-phone respondents and by 15 points among cell-phone respondents. |
| 1 | If there were an election for President today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for? |
| 528 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Portland | Rest of | |
| Obama (D) | 48% | 46% | 50% | 45% | 44% | 53% | 52% | 45% | 52% | 51% | ** | 29% | 26% | 44% | 50% | 17% | 79% | 40% | 9% | 52% | 14% | 51% | 89% | 42% | 41% | 58% | 48% | 50% | 48% | 50% | 45% |
| Romney (R) | 40% | 41% | 38% | 37% | 45% | 35% | 42% | 41% | 38% | 37% | ** | 65% | 54% | 39% | 40% | 76% | 11% | 39% | 89% | 36% | 81% | 31% | 5% | 43% | 44% | 35% | 36% | 40% | 44% | 39% | 40% |
| Undecided | 12% | 12% | 12% | 18% | 10% | 12% | 6% | 14% | 10% | 12% | ** | 6% | 20% | 17% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 21% | 2% | 12% | 6% | 18% | 6% | 15% | 15% | 7% | 15% | 10% | 8% | 11% | 15% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 29% | 26% | 18% | 56% | 44% | 87% | 1% | 6% | 6% | 30% | 70% | 32% | 39% | 29% | 7% | 90% | 30% | 46% | 23% | 15% | 40% | 44% | 34% | 42% | 24% | 65% | 35% |
| 2 | If there were an election for President today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for? |
| 528 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Portland | Rest of | |
| Obama (D) | 51% | 50% | 52% | 51% | 48% | 53% | 55% | 49% | 54% | 53% | ** | 38% | 32% | 49% | 52% | 16% | 84% | 45% | 12% | 55% | 21% | 54% | 87% | 46% | 43% | 62% | 48% | 55% | 52% | 53% | 47% |
| Gingrich (R) | 37% | 38% | 37% | 28% | 44% | 39% | 38% | 36% | 39% | 35% | ** | 49% | 53% | 34% | 39% | 70% | 10% | 39% | 84% | 33% | 69% | 32% | 8% | 42% | 41% | 32% | 36% | 36% | 39% | 35% | 42% |
| Undecided | 12% | 13% | 11% | 21% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 15% | 8% | 11% | ** | 13% | 15% | 17% | 9% | 14% | 6% | 16% | 4% | 12% | 10% | 14% | 5% | 12% | 16% | 7% | 16% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 12% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 29% | 26% | 18% | 56% | 44% | 87% | 1% | 6% | 6% | 30% | 70% | 32% | 39% | 29% | 7% | 90% | 30% | 46% | 23% | 15% | 40% | 44% | 34% | 42% | 24% | 65% | 35% |
| 3 | If your opinion of Mitt Romney is ... |
| 528 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Portland | Rest of | |
| Favorable | 21% | 24% | 17% | 24% | 20% | 20% | 18% | 22% | 19% | 19% | ** | 52% | 14% | 20% | 21% | 35% | 11% | 19% | 41% | 19% | 31% | 17% | 17% | 13% | 20% | 25% | 17% | 21% | 27% | 22% | 18% |
| Unfavorable | 41% | 44% | 38% | 35% | 40% | 49% | 41% | 37% | 46% | 44% | ** | 0% | 46% | 32% | 45% | 25% | 58% | 37% | 24% | 43% | 20% | 45% | 61% | 32% | 41% | 44% | 44% | 38% | 41% | 42% | 40% |
| Neutral | 29% | 25% | 34% | 24% | 29% | 30% | 36% | 27% | 33% | 29% | ** | 38% | 26% | 33% | 28% | 33% | 23% | 34% | 27% | 29% | 40% | 30% | 13% | 45% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 34% | 24% | 27% | 33% |
| No Opinion | 9% | 7% | 11% | 18% | 11% | 1% | 4% | 14% | 2% | 9% | ** | 10% | 15% | 16% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 5% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 29% | 26% | 18% | 56% | 44% | 87% | 1% | 6% | 6% | 30% | 70% | 32% | 39% | 29% | 7% | 90% | 30% | 46% | 23% | 15% | 40% | 44% | 34% | 42% | 24% | 65% | 35% |
| 4 | If your opinion of Newt Gingrich is ... |
| 528 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Portland | Rest of | |
| Favorable | 20% | 24% | 17% | 11% | 19% | 26% | 27% | 15% | 27% | 21% | ** | 10% | 20% | 16% | 22% | 40% | 8% | 16% | 60% | 18% | 40% | 16% | 5% | 21% | 18% | 22% | 20% | 21% | 21% | 16% | 28% |
| Unfavorable | 50% | 49% | 51% | 43% | 50% | 56% | 52% | 47% | 54% | 51% | ** | 39% | 46% | 47% | 52% | 24% | 70% | 52% | 16% | 54% | 24% | 54% | 77% | 37% | 46% | 59% | 42% | 53% | 57% | 54% | 43% |
| Neutral | 21% | 20% | 21% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 19% | 24% | 17% | 19% | ** | 42% | 24% | 20% | 21% | 27% | 16% | 19% | 19% | 20% | 25% | 21% | 12% | 28% | 24% | 15% | 22% | 21% | 17% | 21% | 20% |
| No Opinion | 9% | 7% | 11% | 22% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 14% | 2% | 9% | ** | 10% | 10% | 17% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 13% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 9% | 6% | 14% | 12% | 4% | 16% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 9% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 29% | 26% | 18% | 56% | 44% | 87% | 1% | 6% | 6% | 30% | 70% | 32% | 39% | 29% | 7% | 90% | 30% | 46% | 23% | 15% | 40% | 44% | 34% | 42% | 24% | 65% | 35% |